Russia, Syria, Iran, Turkey -- The US Should Stay Close to a Vacillating Merkel until a More Dependable European Leader Emerges

TODAY WE CONSIDER THE IMPORTANT ROLE OF ANGELA MERKEL. In today's world, in which all roads lead to the Middle East and its key players, German Chancellor Merkel has a unique position. She was born and raised under the East German Soviet regime. She went to Soviet schools, learned Russian and worked for the regime in a minor role before the Berlin Wall fell. So -- when she meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin, she is the ONLY western leader who fully understands his childhood mindset and his years in the Soviet system -- part of which was spent as a KGB agent in Soviet East Germany. Merkel speaks Putin's language -- literally and from childhood. And he speaks hers. It is a combination of backgrounds that makes the duo of Chancellor Merkel and President Putin uniquely valuable and uniquely dangerous because they are products of the RealPolitik that drives hard-nosed political negotiations toward purely practical decisions. • • • MERKEL AND PUTIN MET ON SATURDAY. Reuters reported Sunday on the talks held at the German government's Meseberg castle outside Berlin, relating that Putin and Merkel discussed "the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, as well as Iran and a gas pipeline project that has drawn US ire during tough talks outside Berlin that ended with no clearcut progress." • Reuters says : "Ties between the two countries have been strained since Russia’s annexation of the Crimea region of Ukraine in 2014. The two leaders both viewed the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project as a purely commercial venture, despite persistent fire by the US and Ukrainian governments, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said. 'That’s why it is necessary to take measures against possible non-competitive and illegal attacks from the third countries in order to complete this project eventually,' he told reporters shortly before Putin flew back to Russia. It was not immediately clear what such 'measures' could entail." • The two leaders held a press op before their meeting but there was no post-meeting press conference. At the press op, Merkel underscored her expectation that Ukraine should continue to have a role in gas transit to Europe, and welcomed the start of discussions among the European Union, Ukraine and Russia on that issue. Putin said such a move had to make sense from a business perspective : “The main thing is that the Ukrainian transit -- which is traditional for us -- meets economic demands. Nord Stream 2 is exclusively an economic project.” The United States is pressing Germany to halt the pipeline that will carry gas from Russia under the Baltic Sea, arguing it will increase Germany’s dependence on Russia for energy. And, Ukraine fears the pipeline will allow Russia to cut it off from the gas transit business, while Germany’s eastern European neighbors worry about Russian encroachment. Peskov said the threat of possible US sanctions against companies involved in the project was not discussed on Saturday. • Concerning Syria, Merkel said both countries -- but especially Russia as a permanent member of the UN Security Council -- had a responsibility to try to solve the ongoing fighting in Ukraine and Syria. She said she also planned to raise potentially thorny human rights issues with Putin, and discuss bilateral relations : “I am of the opinion that controversial issues can only be addressed in dialogue and through dialogue." Both leaders expressed their concerns about Syria and the plight of the many refugees created by the seven-year-old war there. Merkel said it was important to avert a humanitarian crisis in Idlib, Syria, and the surrounding region, and said she and Putin had already discussed the issue of constitutional reforms and possible elections when they last met in Sochi in May. Putin told reporters that everything must be done to help Syrian refugees to return to their country and that Syria needed assistance to rebuild. • On the wider Ukraine issue, Merkel said she hoped new efforts could get underway soon to disentangle Ukrainian military forces and separatists on the front lines in the Donbass region. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper Germany hoped to “create new momentum” in the Minsk peace process. Sanctions relief for Russia would only be negotiated if the Minsk accord was implemented, he added. Maas said he had spoken with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin this week, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was due to visit Berlin again on Sept. 14 after a meeting with Merkel in the German capital last month. • Before the Merkel-Putin meeting, Money and Markets wrote on Friday that : "Putin is facing the possibility of more US sanctions on Russia imposed by Trump [because of the poisoning in the UK of former Russian intel agent Sergei Skripal], and has an interest in softening or heading off any European support for them. Meanwhile, Putin and Merkel both want to move ahead with the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline -- roundly criticized by Trump as a form of Russian control over Germany. Stefan Meister, a Russia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told Money and Markets that there's “an increased interest on both sides to talk about topics of common interest” and that, in part because of Trump, the two sides have shifted focus from earlier meetings that focused on Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. Merkel was a leading supporter of sanctions against Russia over its annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea. Meister says Putin and Merkel are far from being allies, but the meeting will send the message that they will “not let themselves be pressured by Trump.” Meister also said that Putin can use the meeting to “send a signal to Washington that there are allies of the US that still do business with Russia.” Beyond that, Meister says Putin can push for Germany and the EU not to support further sanctions, particularly a second round that might hit businesses working with the Nord Stream 2 project. • • • SYRIAN AND OTHER REFUGEES IN GERMANY. Germany has a strong interest in seeing some of the Syrian refugees in Germany return home in any settlement of the civil war in their home country, and Merkel needs Russia’s support for that because of Putin's close ties with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Russia has backed al-Assad with military force, and Putin has pushed Germany and other Western nations to help rebuild Syria’s economy, arguing that it would help encourage refugees from Syria to return home, easing the pressure on Europe. • Merkel’s decision to allow in a flood of refugees in 2015 led to a backlash against her immigration policy and boosted the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany AfD party. The Gatestone Institute's Soeren Kern reported on Sunday about a famous case : "A court in Germany has ruled that the recent deportation to Tunisia of a failed asylum seeker -- Sami Aidoudi, an Islamist suspected of being a bodyguard for the former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden -- was unlawful and that, at taxpayer expense, he must be immediately returned to Germany....On August 15, the North Rhine-Westphalian Higher Administrative Court in Münster said that immigration authorities in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany's most populous state, deliberately deceived the courts in the run-up to the deportation of Sami Aidoudi, who had been illegally living in Germany for more than a decade....The court ordered federal authorities to issue a visa for Aidoudi -- referred to in Germany as Sami A. for privacy reasons -- to facilitate his return to Germany. The court also ordered Bochum, a city in NRW where Aidoudi lived until his deportation, to pay for his flight back to Germany. The ruling has cast yet another spotlight on the dysfunctional nature of Germany's deportation system, as well as on Germany's politicized judicial system, one in which activist judges are now engaged in a power struggle with elected officials who want to speed up deportations. • If that sounds familiar, it is much like the many cases of activist Progressive judges in the US ruling against the Trump administration's efforts to deport dangerous illegal immigrants. But, Kern says "It remains unclear how officials in Bochum can comply with the order, as Tunisian officials have repeatedly said that they have no intention of returning him to Germany. Aidoudi was deported on July 13, after years of legal maneuvering which allowed him to stay in Germany -- on the grounds that in Tunisia he might face torture. Between 2006 and June 2018, Aidoudi's case was heard 14 times in NRW courts, according to NRW's Ministry of Justice. Aidoudi, a Salafist Islamist, first arrived in Germany in 1997, and is believed by German authorities to have spent time in Afghanistan and Pakistan before the al-Qaeda attacks against the United States on September 11, 2001. Since then, he has been under surveillance by German intelligence for propagating Islamist teachings and attempting to radicalize young Moslems. He had 'far reaching' relationships with Salafist and jihadist networks, according to an official report leaked to the German news magazine, Focus." • Kern reports that Tunisian authorities reacted to the ruling by saying that they had "confiscated Aidoudi's passport to prevent him from returning to Germany. Sofiane Sliti, the spokesman for the Tunisian terrorism prosecutor, in an interview with the newspaper Bild, insisted that the matter was an issue of Tunisian sovereignty : 'This ruling has no consequences for us. I have said it several times : In Tunisia, Tunisian law is valid and nothing else! That there are problems between ministries and courts in Germany is not our problem. The process here in Tunisia is not yet completed, so he [Aidoudi] has no ID card with which he could travel.' " • Members of North Rhine-Westphalia's conservative state government that supports the Merkel coalition government also criticized the verdict. Soeren Kern reprots that NRW Interior Minister Herbert Reul (CDU), in an interview with Rheinische Post, said that the ruling was out of touch with the public's demand for security : "Judicial independence is a highly valuable good, but judges should always bear in mind that their decisions should correspond to the public's sense of justice. I doubt if that is the case with this ruling. If the citizens no longer understand judicial decisions, that is pouring water over the mills of extremists." Judge Ricarda Brandts of the Westphalian Higher Administrative Court shot back : "The case of Sami A. raises questions about democracy and the rule of law, especially about the separation of powers and effective legal protection. In this case, the limits of the rule of law were tested....The courts have to judge independently of the majority opinion. And everyone should be aware that a constitutional state is working to protect the rights of minorities, even the rights of those who do not respect the rule of law. The case of Sami A. is about determining the fine line between ensuring the security of the population and the rights of those who jeopardize or even violate security. The rule of law must assert itself to the extent that even perpetrators, offenders and terrorists are entitled to effective legal protection and respect for their human dignity." • Kern quoted Tichys Einblick, a leading classical-liberal and conservative German blog, Tomas Spahn captured the essence of the issue : "What we are currently experiencing is not a struggle for the rule of law, but a power struggle between an obviously ideologically oriented judiciary and unpopular political representatives." Commentator Henryk Broder, in a column -- "Sami A.: Even the Rule of Law Can Sometimes be Wrong" — for Die Welt, concluded : "Confidence in the rule of law is not undermined by a ruling such as that of the Gelsenkirchen Administrative Court, but by the fact that it took almost twelve years for Osama bin Laden's 'alleged' bodyguard finally to be deported." • In many ways, the post-WWII German judicial system is more like the US judicial system than any other in Europe. We can see in the Aidoudi case the problem Merkel faces in trying to return Syrian refugees to Syria or in trying to deport illegal immigrants -- granted that she let them in -- who have no right to be in Germany in the first place. It explains Merkel's effort to find an ally in Russian President Putin who may be able to find a solution that will solve Merkel's political problem, without putting her in the center of the solution. • • • IRAN -- ANOTHER MERKEL-PUTIN JOINT CONCERN. Money and Markets wrote on Sunday that : "Both Germany and Russia have expressed a desire to maintain the agreement with Iran to limit its nuclear program in return for easing some economic sanctions. Trump has pulled the US out of the program and imposed new sanctions, saying that they will also hit foreign countries that keep doing business with Iran. • Reuters reported on Saturday that : "Iran will unveil a new fighter jet next week and continue developing missile capabilities as a top priority, the defense minister said on Saturday, defying new US sanctions aimed at curbing Teheran’s missile program and regional influence. Iran’s navy also announced on Saturday that it has mounted a locally built advanced defensive weapons system on one of its warships for the first time, as tensions mount with the US military in the Gulf." • Iran Brigadier General Amir Hatami told the Fars news agency on Saturday : “Our top priority has been development of our missile program. We are in a good position in this field, but we need to develop it. We will present a plane on National Defense Industry Day, and people will see it fly, and the equipment designed for it.” • Reuters reports that Iran has developed a large domestic arms industry in the face of international sanctions and embargoes that have barred it from importing many weapons : "Iran unveiled in 2013 what it said was a new, domestically built fighter jet, called Qaher 313, but some experts expressed doubts about the viability of the aircraft at the time. Iran’s functional air force has been limited [because of longstanding sanctions] to perhaps as few as a few dozen strike aircraft, either Russian or ageing US models acquired before the 1979 Iranian revolution. Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi said on Saturday that 'coastal and sea testing of the short range defense Kamand system were concluded successfully, and said this system was mounted...on a warship and will be mounted on a second ship soon.' Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said earlier this month it held war games in the Gulf aimed at 'confronting possible threats' by enemies." • The US military’s Central Command said it had seen increased Iranian naval activity, extending to the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway for oil shipments the Revolutionary Guards have threatened to block. • Yet, with all the indications of Iran's build-up of its military forces by using the funds released in 2105 when the Iran deal was concluded and the later business deals entered into with the Iranian regime, Chancellor Merkel and the EU are opposed to the US sanctions being newly imposed on Iran. The threat of exclusion from US banking and capital markets will bring the EU and European companies around to ceasing to do business with Iran, but Chancellor Merkel seemed on Saturday to be calling on Putin to intervene to alleviate the US Iran sanctions program -- and he will also want to end to US and EU sanctions imposed on his Russia for its annexation of the Crimea at the same time. It is a very complex issue for Russia -- a staunch supporter of both Syria and Iran -- and we wonder how many of his chits Putin wants to call in to save his potential foe in Syria, Iran, when his main Middle East ally is Syria, and his own country would greatly benefit from sanctions relief. • • • TURKEY LOOMS LARGE. The UK Telegraph wrote on Friday that Turkey's credit rating was slashed amid lira's "extreme volatility." Tensions between the US and Turkey ramped up on Friday. The fact is that Turkey's credit rating has been slashed further into "junk" by both Moody's and S&P Global Ratings as the lira exhibited "extreme volatility" and as policy-making in the country became less predictable. CNBC reported that S&P cut the country's long-term local currency rating to BB-, four grades below investment grade, and reduced its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating by one notch to a B+. Moody's downgraded Turkey's long-term issuer ratings to Ba3 from Ba2 and changed its ratings outlook to negative, saying : "the key driver for today's downgrade is the continuing weakening of Turkey's public institutions and the related reduction in the predictability of Turkish policy making. That weakening is exemplified by heightened concerns over the independence of the central bank, and by the lack of a clear and credible plan to address the underlying causes of the recent financial distress, notwithstanding recent statements by the government. The tighter financial conditions and weaker exchange rate, associated with high and rising external financing risks, are likely to fuel inflation further and undermine growth, and the risk of a balance of payments crisis continues to rise." The Turkish lira continued to slide against the dollar, having lost around 40% of its value this year alone. The Telegraph says : "The sell-off has come amid both a debt crisis and a political showdown with Washington, which could result in Turkey facing substantial tariff hikes. Tensions between the US and Turkey ramped up on Friday after president Donald Trump said Turkey had 'in my opinion, acted very, very badly' when it came to the handling of US pastor Andrew Brunson. Mr Brunson faces 35 years in jail on terror and espionage charges in Turkey. A deal on his release, between the two countries, fell apart last month, and Ankara is now detaining him. 'We haven’t seen the last of that,' Mr Trump said. 'We are not going to take it sitting down. They can’t take our people.' The US has already imposed sanctions on Turkish ministers, in the wake of the deal collapsing, and has threatened hiking tariffs on steel and aluminium. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has further stoked fears about the Turkish economy by his resistance to hiking interest rates, despite soaring inflation in the country." • We note that higher interest rates are the traditional treasury tool for curbing escalating inflation, now running at 15% in Turkey. • CNBC also reported that China backs Turkey to overcome its economic crisis. CNBC quoted Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Yi, who said China believes that Turkey has the "ability to overcome temporary economic difficulties," according to a translated statement placed on the ministry's website Friday. • CNBC noted that the Chinese comments "follow a reported phone call this week between Erdogan and Angela Merkel, with the Chancellor offering to strengthen ties between the two nations." • China is the latest country to offer support to President Recep Erdogan, as Turkey experiences a currency meltdown and a tariff spat with the US, which doubled steel and aluminum tariffs on Ankara, in return for the country's continued detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson. Back in July, China's state-owned banking giant The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reportedly lent $3.6 billion to Turkey -- said to be a loan for the energy and transportation sector. When asked about the investment by reporters, Lu Yi said that China has always attached importance to the economic, trade and financial ties it has with Turkey. The country's officials would always support Chinese and Turkish companies signing cooperation projects based on market rules, he added. • CNBC states that Russian President Putin was one of the first people Erdogan called on that day, "increasing speculation that the Turkish leader is moving closer to Moscow as relationships with the US crumble." Turkey also had Qatar with the Gulf nation pledge $15 billion worth of investment on Wednesday. • But, the Washington Institute's Soner Cagaptay wrote an article for Time last Thrusday that stated : "The president has cultivated an adoring crowd of inflexible 'Erdoganists' who feed on the politics of resentment and reject Ataturk's pro-Western legacy entirely. Turkey's economy faces severe economic troubles as Ankara readies for what could be a drawn-out fight with its ally the US over the arrest of Pastor Andrew Brunson in Turkey. However, do not expect the base of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to abandon him. No matter the troubles facing Turkey, Erdogan's followers believe they have a historic mission to stand by the man they adoringly refer to as the Reis (meaning Leader or Captain in Turkish). To these supporters, Erdogan is under attack by external enemies like the US because he's out to make Turkey great and Moslems proud again. These foreign adversaries want Erdogan to fail because they do not want to see Turkey or the Moslems rise. That belief is bolstered by Turkey's media, which is almost entirely controlled by Erdogan, and pro-regime pundits who propagate a grand historical narrative where Erdogan is the principle protagonist. Call it 'Erdoganism.' " Cagaptay's analysis concludes : "Ataturk embraced Westernization, taking steps to make Turkey unconditionally European so that it could finally fulfill its quest to become a major power again. Ataturk Europeanized Turkey because European states were the great powers of the world in the interwar era when he was Turkey's president. If Brazil and Argentina had been great powers at the time, he might have followed a Latin American model of reform and modernization. But Erdoganism, which feeds on the politics of resentment, rejects Ataturk's pro-Western legacy in its entirety. According to Erdoganists, Ataturk's cohort of secular republican founders struck a deal with the Allies after WWI to subjugate Turkey under Western interests as a 'subaltern'....This tradition of subjugating the people's will to the West supposedly continued under various secular parties that governed Turkey until Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. Those Moslems who believe they are caught up in the historic struggle of the Cross against the Crescent require a leader for victory. After the July 2016 coup attempt, Erdogan has proven himself to be that leader....As pro-Erdogan Turkish daily Yeni Safak announced : 'The West has declared a...war against Turkey, which it sees as a global threat...[and] is openly supporting terrorist organizations.' Erdogan's recent election victory on June 24th, in which he received 52% of the vote, was the final stage in his transformation into the Reis. This date constituted an unmistakable break in Turkish history -- one in which Erdoganism came to dominate the political landscape. The Turks who voted for him on June 24 see Erdogan as their savior who will protect Turkey and make Moslems proud again. As Turkey faces a potential collapse of its economy, do not expect Erdogan's base to change their mind so quickly regarding the Reis." • So, we cannot expect a political sea-change in Turkey soon -- and that's another reason for Chancellor Merkel to form an alliance with Putin -- an increasing 'friend' of Turkey -- she needs Turkey's continuing help if her bargain with Erdogan to hold back illegal immigrants heading to Europe is to continue. Putin can help her. We note that President Erdogan will be in Germany on a state visit in September. • • • RUSSIA, CHINA AND THE US IN A SPACE WAR. The Washington Free Beacon points out that : "Recent comments by the commander of Russian aerospace forces, Colonel General Sergei Surovikin...have raised alarms. Surovikin stated that 'assimilate[ing] new prototypes of weapons [into] space forces’ military units' is a 'main task facing the Aerospace Forces Space Troops.' Disclosure of Russia's attack satellite capabilities comes as the Pentagon announced plans...to create a new space force as a separate branch of the US military. The plans call for creating a space command in the coming years and the new space force by 2020. Few details have been disclosed about plans for US space weapons and the warfighting doctrine of the new forces. China, in addition to Russia, also has a well-developed space warfare capability that includes three types of ground-launched anti-satellite missiles, anti-satellite lasers, and maneuvering satellites. US intelligence agencies have observed small Chinese maneuvering satellites with robotic arms capable of grabbing and crushing satellites. The Pentagon also has been testing a maneuverable spacecraft called the X-37B that has been conducting orbiting experiments for the past several years. Most of its activities are secret." • Former Pentagon policymaker Mark Schneider said Russian generals have been discussing ASAT weapons for about a decade : "Supposed Russian opposition to weapons in space is hypocrisy. The Russian air force has become the Aerospace Force. Russia currently has a substantial advantage in heavy lift space-launch boosters which facilitates placing weapons in space. This is a very serious threat." • The Free Beacon also reported that : "Russia space weaponry includes a new anti-satellite missile fired from aircraft and a mobile attack anti-satellite system. Russia's development of a future MiG-41 also will be capable of destroying targets in space. Additionally, Russia recently announced that the space troops have been equipped with a mobile laser system that was touted in a speech last month by Russian President Vladimir Putin. In November, Russian official Oleg Achasov, deputy head of Federal State Budgetary Institution 46th Central Scientific Research Institute, announced that Moscow is developing a the mobile anti-satellite strike system called Rudolf, along with a mobile anti-communications satellite electronic warfare system known as Tirada-2S. The latter system will be used to conduct radio-electronic attacks on satellites, he said. In July, Russia revealed plans for an advanced aircraft called Porubshik-2 that is capable of blinding orbiting satellites with electronic strikes....Russia's anti-satellite missile is known as the Nudol or PL-19 that has been tested at least six times since 2015. The Nudol will utilize a high-speed interceptor missile that destroys satellite targets using kinetic energy of impact." • This calls into question Russia's motives behind its proposal for a treaty banning space weapons under a draft treaty proposed jointly by Russia and China. Michael J. Listner, a space expert quoted by the Free Beacon, says the United States understands that the Russian and Chinese efforts at the Geneva disarmament forum "are nothing more than pretense for lawfare and soft power maneuvering while concurrently developing their own counterspace capabilities. The United States also understands that until a verifiable legal test for a space weapon can be adopted the idea of any space weapons ban will be impracticable." • • • CHINA INVADES US RADIO. Consider the Washington Free Beacon report last week that a large Spanish-language radio station in Mexico will soon begin broadcasting in Chinese in a deal critics say will bring Beijing propaganda to Chinese Americans throughout Southern California. A Federal Communications Commission filing on the sale of radio station XEWW AM 690 radio near Tijuana reveals the buyer has ties to Phoenix Satellite Television US, a subsidiary of Hong Kong's pro-Beijing Phoenix TV. The Free Beacon says that : "According to government sources, signs that Phoenix is involved in the purchase of the radio station prompted the Trump administration last week to begin an investigation into the national security implications of the sale. Phoenix TV has been identified by US intelligence agencies as a major overseas outlet used to spread propaganda and promote the policies of the communist government in Beijing. The Hong Kong television station also has close ties to China's intelligence service and military." • Even though the sale involves a foreign broadcaster, the FCC has a role because the Mexican radio station broadcasts into the US. Under a 1992 US-Mexico agreement limiting foreign broadcasts from Mexico that can reach the United States, the FCC can block the sale if the agreement will be violated. The FCC application states the new ownership will provide "a full range of Mandarin Chinese programming on station XEWW-AM including music, entertainment, weather report, local (LA) traffic report, and local Chinese community news." The new owners plan to produce programming in Los Angeles and transfer to programs to XEWW through the internet for broadcast by the radio's transmitters. The Justice Department probe into the radio deal reflects stepped up efforts by the administration to counter foreign influence operations. • Another Los Angeles Chinese-language radio station, the Chinese Sound of Oriental and West Heritage, filed a petition with the FCC asking it to block H&H's purchase of XEWW. The Chinese broadcaster from the low power FM station KQEV said FCC approval would cause economic harm and "might allow the Chinese government to provide its own propaganda programming to air on the station. If the programming of XEWW-AM is tainted by, or worse controlled by, the Chinese Communist Party, the Chinese American community of Southern, California could be indoctrinated with CCP propaganda, and the American political and economic community could be damaged," the filing states. "An investigation of this issue is necessary." • Former Chinese insider and billionaire businessman Guo Wengui said Phoenix TV was established under Chinese leader Jiang Zemin in the early 1990s specifically as a government and intelligence tool for overseas influence operations. All Phoenix personnel are required to undergo some MSS intelligence training, Guo said. "Phoenix TV is very close to the MSS and Chinese military intelligence," said Guo, who was once close to MSS Vice Minister Ma Jian before breaking with Beijing several years ago. • Lianchao Han, a former Senate aide who has studied China's overseas influence operations, said the attempted purchase of XEWW appears to be part of a larger Beijing global propaganda operation. China began spending over $7 billion 10 years ago to implement a global propaganda strategy, Han said. The goal of the propaganda is to garner support for Beijing's policies, and to play down or ignore nefarious Chinese activities, such as arms proliferation to rogue states and human rights abuses. Han told the free Beacon : "Today the Chinese government media's presence can be seen everywhere in North America. It has systematically taken control of nearly all overseas Chinese language media, bought English-language radio and TV stations, hired hundreds of American journalists to do their bidding. Phoenix TV's recent purchase of XEWW through H&H Capital shows the regime continues to carry out this strategy of brainwashing people in the free world to endorse Beijing's policy of global expansion and to re-write the current international rules and order." • • • DEAR READERS, what all this says is that the West needs to be very alert to anything or anyone or any country aided or supported by Russia or China. German Chancellor Merkel knows this, and she is often on the right side of an issue. But, while Merkel surely understands the potential dangers of easing up to Russia and China, she is nevertheless siding with Russia, and indirectly with China, in opposing Iranian sanctions, forging ahead with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and seeking Russian help in the Middle East. Putin's "help" is not free. Nor is China's. • What makes Chancellor Merkel so important to the West -- and her actions in moving toward Russia to achieve certain German government goals so dangerous -- is the undeniable fact that there is still no leader in Europe capable of replacing her. As Gatestone Institute's Guy Millière put it last week : "France's Justice Department is not independent of the government....The French media are largely subsidized by the government and no more independent of the government than the Justice Department is....Even the French media that are not funded by the state self-censor what they report, because they are supported by businesses that depend on government contracts. The economist Charles Gave recently used statistical data to demonstrate that if nothing changes, the non-Moslem population of France could be a minority in 40 years. He added : 'What happened to Spain or Asia Minor in the 10th and 11th centuries will happen to Europe in the 21st century, that is a certainty.' " Millière says : "When Emmanuel Macron was elected president of France in May 2017, he was portrayed as a reformer who was going to change everything in France and beyond. Fourteen months later, illusions are gone. The reforms carried out have been essentially cosmetic and failed to slow France's sclerotic decline. Economic growth is close to zero : 0.2% in the second quarter of 2018. Unemployment, at around 8.9%, remains high. French public spending as a percent of GDP is, at 56.4%, still the highest in Europe. The country is still frequently paralyzed by public transportation strikes. No-go zones continue to spread, and Macron himself recently admitted his helplessness by asking for a 'general mobilization' of the population. Riots are frequent; large-scale public events lead to looting and arson." Millière notes columnist Ivan Rifoul recent book remark that described Macron's victory as a "masquerade" organized by "socialists in decline," "EU apparatchiks," supporters of the Islamization of Europe, and crony capitalists. As Millière says : "The deterioration of France rolls on." • What is of great interest to the West is Millière's conclusion : "As for the rest of the continent, Macron is one of the main defenders of a multicultural, post-national, post-democratic and post-Christian Europe. A growing number of Europeans see that trend as leading to the destruction of their own civilization and have been voting for leaders who resist it. Politicians who support the same vision of Europe as Macron have, in recent months, been eliminated from the political scene or reduced to faltering positions. Italy's Matteo Renzi was badly defeated in the 2018 elections. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, once described as 'the most powerful leader in Europe,' now survives in office only because she agreed to measures aimed at limiting further immigration to Germany....Leaders embodying resistance to post-national multiculturalism, on the other hand, have been gaining ground. Hungarian President Viktor Orbán won reelection in April and is currently serving his third consecutive term. He had campaigned for defending Europe's Judeo-Christian roots, for national sovereignty, and against Moslem immigration. Austria's new Chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, has a program similar to Orbán's. The Polish and Czech governments also hold positions similar to those of Kurz and Orbán. Matteo Salvini, leader of The League (an anti-mass-migration party), is now Minister of the Interior and Deputy Prime Minister of Italy. Macron recently revealed what he thinks of 'populists' such as Orbán, Kurz and Salvini : 'a leprosy all across Europe,' and called on Europeans to 'fight' them." • The West -- the United States -- needs to stay close to Chancellor Merkel and encourage her more democratic instincts while finding ways to achieve the political goals that will keep her in power without selling Europe out to Russia and China and Iran -- UNTIL a new more reliable democratic leader for Europe emerges.