Iran, Syria, Turkey, China, Mexico -- President Trump's Strategies Are on the Move Around the World

BUT FIRST, EUROPE HAS AN INFRASTRUCTURE CRISIS ON ITS HANDS. The Genoa bridge collapse has caused other European countries to inspect the state of their bridges out of a fear that they, too, may be susceptible to collapse. The Morandi bridge in Genoa, Italy, collapsed on Tuesday, and at least 39 people have been killed and another 16 injured. • In Germany, there are concerns over the state of Berlin's bridges after figures show more than 40 have defects. These 40+ bridges in Berlin have been classed as being in an "insufficient condition," the Berliner Morgenpost reports, while the Berlin Senate has moved to reassure people that the city’s 2085 bridges for road, pedestrian and cyclists are “very safe structures.” Dorothee Winden, a spokeswoman for the Berlin Senate told the Berliner Morgenpost that there are regular inspections across the city and surrounding area, which means problems in the network are likely to be detected in good time. Winden said that cracks or other tell-tale signs of damage are noted and acted on before a failure occurs : “This allows us to intervene in a timely manner.” BUT, according to the Senate Traffic Administration of 2017, only 230 of the approximately 830 bridges maintained by the Berlin Senate are in very good or good condition. The situation is similar for the 252 overpasses in Berlin, which are federally owned. Only 20% received a grade of good or very good, while 75% are in a satisfactory or sufficient condition. The problem with bridge and overpass maintenance relates to budget cuts in the past decades -- the amount of money being spent to maintain the bridge and roads network in the area is considered insufficient by some experts. However, Winden says : "After years of saving, Berlin is investing heavily in the renovation and new construction of bridges." In the current year, 41.5 million Euros and another 13.7 million Euros will be available for state-owned road bridges. More than 20 bridges are currently being planned for longer-term repairs or replacement projects. Short-term repairs are also being made to around 100 bridges per year. Winden says : "The rehabilitation of bridges will continue to be a high priority over the next few years." But, experts have warned that a bridge collapse in Germany "could not be ruled out." A report last March by the Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt) concluded that only 12.5% of Germany's motorway bridges were in good condition, while 12.4% were in poor condition. • France has a similar problem. A recent report by the French government on the country's road network and bridges has been making headlines because of the bridge collapse in Genoa. The French government needs to spend €1 billion a year for 20 years to fix its national road network, which is in such a poor state that bridges are at risk of collapse, tunnels are in a poor condition and potholes are everywhere, the recent report concluded. Of the 12,000 bridges in France maintained by the French state, 1/3 are in need of repair, the report reveals. The report, commissioned by the government's own ministry of transport also paints a worrying picture of the 12,000 km of state-owned road networks in France, concluding that "17% of the network today is in a significant state of degradation" and that "7% of other kinds of infrastructure such as tunnels and bridges need renovation work." There have been examples of the dangers spoken about in the report. In May, the A15 motorway had to be closed in the direction of Paris when part of the Gennevilliers viaduct subsided. The motorway bridge is closed for repair works that have caused knock-on traffic chaos around the area. France's Transport Minister Elisabeth Borne said the partial subsidence of the bridge reflected the sorry state of the whole network which has suffered due to decades of neglect. In 2015 the motorist organization "40 Million d'automobilistes" (similar to the AAA) launched an operation to denounce the state of the roads in France, asking drivers to flag the roads they consider the most dangerous. The organization's chief Pierre Chasseray said that the quality of maintenance of the roads is a factor in 47% of road accidents in France. The ministry of transport's report points the finger of blame for the poor state of roads in France at the chronic lack of investment over the years. The Macron government is planning to invest €800 million a year between 2018 and 2023 in the country's road network, but for those who wrote the report, it's simply not enough. • Maybe the European cradle-to-grave welfare state works only if you don't stray too far from home ??!! • • • SOMETHING THAT IS WORKING IS THE TRUMP STRATEGY ON IRAN. TheHill reported on thursday that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced he's creating a group to take that lead on that, something he's calling the "Iran Action Group," whose task is to coordinate the State Department's post- nuclear deal Iran policy and work with other government agencies and countries. Pompeo told State Department employees : "Our hope is that one day soon we can reach a new agreement with Iran, but we must see major changes in the regime's behavior, both inside and outside its borders. The Iranian people and the world are demanding that Iran finally act like a normal nation. The Iran Action Group will drive daily progress on these objectives, and I hope do much more." • The IAG will report directly to Pompeo and be led by Brian Hook, the newly named special representative for Iran, who as the State Department's director of policy planning had steered the unsuccessful efforts to try to renegotiate the nuclear deal before Trump withdrew. The Iran Action Group will "lead the way in growing efforts with nations which share our understanding of the Iranian threat." The IAG will have a particular emphasis on the issues of nuclear weapons, terrorism and the detention of American citizens, Hook said, though it will work to advance all 12 of the goals Pompeo laid out in a May speech. • In a special irony, perhaps planned, Thursday's announcement by Secretary Pompeo came on the 65th anniversary of the 1953 Iranian coup, stoking international speculation that the Trump administration is advocating regime change. Hook pushed back on that suggestion, saying it was "pure coincidence" the action group is being announced on the anniversary of the coup. Hook did not name specific people working in the group now, but said it is launching with a "core staff of several permanent personnel" with more department experts being detailed to it later. "This team is committed to a strong global effort to change the Iranian regime's behavior," Hook said. • • • IT SEEMS IRAN WANTS A DEAL. The Washington Institute's Dennis Ross wrote on Wednesday that Iran is "throwing a tantrum but wants a deal." Ross says : "Defiant warnings aside, Tehran will eventually negotiate with President Trump -- as long as Vladimir Putin mediates. Even in its afterlife, the Iran nuclear deal continues to polarize. Those who supported the agreement proclaim loudly that Iran will never negotiate any adjustment to it, while its opponents argue US President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of it will produce a better deal." • According to Ross, Trump himself seems to believe a better deal is possible, having recently offered to talk to the Iranians without preconditions. On Monday, Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei indicated he disagrees, declaring : "I ban holding any talks with America... America never remains loyal to its promises." Khamenei's ban came after Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, had already insisted : "The Iranian people will never allow their officials to meet and negotiate with the Great Satan, we are not North Korea." • Ross says : "That sounds strong, but I suspect Trump's backers have the better case. History and basic political dynamics suggest Iran's defiant attitude about negotiations will soften before long, and it's entirely possible to imagine the two sides reaching an agreement. The next round of US-Iranian negotiations, however, won't look anything like the first -- and Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely play a starring role as peacemaker. • Ross spells out the flaws he sees in Trump's strategy : "Jafari's reference to North Korea is telling, both because Iran is not a one-man show and because Trump seems to believe that his "maximum pressure" approach worked on North Korea and can work on Iran. Leaving aside whether it has worked, the two cases are quite different. On North Korea, a strong international consensus existed on stopping the regime's nuclear program -- and the Trump administration mobilized support for new, tougher sanctions. On Iran, by contrast, the President broke the international consensus by walking away from the nuclear deal. It is hard to apply maximum pressure when other governments, especially our European allies, oppose our efforts and are adopting regulations to protect their companies from US sanctions for doing business with Iran. At a minimum, our allies and others are not going to be vigilant in plugging loopholes in the sanctions regime and preventing the Iranians from evading the sanctions -- a practice that they have honed over time." • So, according to Ross, maximum pressure won't work. In fact, says Ross : "with oil prices rising, Iran is likely to be able to cover revenue losses that may occur when the Trump administration applies the second round of sanctions on November 4 -- sanctions that require countries to reduce their oil purchases from Iran or risk not being able to do business with the United States." • But, Ross also states that European support will not help Iran very much : "First, notwithstanding the new blocking regulations the European Union has adopted, European banks and companies are pulling out of Iran. When faced with the choice of doing business with the United States or with Iran, there is no choice. Already, big energy, automobile, and shipping corporations such as Total, Peugeot, and Maersk, as well as banks such as Germany's Deutsche Bank, have pulled out. Banks and multinational corporations will do what their bottom lines, not governments, tell them to do. Second, even before the first round of sanctions were reimposed on August 6, the Iranian economy was reeling. Since April, Iran's currency has lost 50% of its value, meaning Iranian bank accounts are worth half of what they were then, and the Iranian public is clearly unhappy. They have been expressing their unhappiness in widespread demonstrations since last December -- well before Trump pulled out of the Iran deal -- over the regime's foreign adventures, mismanagement, and pervasive corruption. Strikes are increasing, with vendors in the Teheran Bazaar holding a work stoppage on June 25. Truckers held a strike throughout the country in July; more recently, riot police were called out in response to strikes in the cities of Mashhad, Isfahan, Rasht, Ahvaz, and Karaj. Other than Ahvaz, these are conservative cities typically supportive of the regime. Not anymore, with angry demonstrators carrying placards that say, 'Death to Palestine' and 'No to Gaza, no to Lebanon' as well as 'Death to the dictator.' They want money spent on their needs, not billions on saving Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad or supporting Hezbollah or Hamas. For a regime that depends for its stability on fear and some semblance of popular legitimacy, this must be unnerving. Third, when the regime feels truly squeezed, its historic pattern is to adjust its behavior. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic's first supreme leader, proclaimed Iran would fight Iraq for as long as it took to defeat it. Yet he ended the war in August 1988 when US forces in the Gulf destroyed Iranian naval vessels and oil platforms and accidentally downed an Iranian civilian airliner -- seemingly in support of Saddam Hussein. In the 1990s, Iran stopped killing dissidents in Europe when Germany threatened sanctions. Following the US defeat of Saddam's army in 2003, and fearing Iran might be next, the regime made far-reaching offers to limit its nuclear program and support for Hezbollah and Hamas. And, after declaring that they would never negotiate on their nuclear program so long as they were under sanctions -- and the Obama administration doubled down on the sanctions -- the Iranians negotiated." • According to Ross, this suggests that as the Iranian economy falters and pressure rises in Iran, the regime "will, in time, look for a way out and be willing to talk." BUT, oil will paly a large role -- "at over $70 a barrel will give the Iranians some cushion, especially because their budget was based on $55 a barrel. In addition, Iran's leaders will wait to see how much European buyers of Iranian oil cut back and whether anyone fills in." • Ross says we should not look for direct contacts that would look like surrender : "Instead, early next year Iran's leaders will likely approach the Russians. They see how Trump relates to Putin, and with Putin's interest in demonstrating Russian clout on the world stage, he will gladly be the arbiter between the United States and Iran." For Ross, the initial offer made by Iran through Putin, "perhaps in his upcoming summit meeting with Trump in early 2019, bringing a proposal to extend the nuclear deal's limits on Iranian centrifuges and enriched material for 10 to 15 years in return for the United States dropping all its sanctions. In other words, in return for the restrictions on Iranian enrichment being extended from 2030 until 2045, the United States would drop all its existing sanctions -- nuclear and nonnuclear -- so there would be no remaining ambiguity about Iran's ability to do business with US banks. In theory, such an offer falls well short of the Trump administration's posture embodied in Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's 12 demands of the Iranians -- demands that require an end not only to nuclear enrichment but also to Iran's destabilizing threats and actions in the region. But if Putin comes with such a proposal, and presents it privately to Trump, it is hard to believe that the President would simply turn it down. More likely, he will see it as an opening -- even 'an incredible offer,' or some other such superlative. Anyone certain that the Iranians won't negotiate any modifications on the nuclear deal shouldn't be so sure. Domestic pressures and the readiness of the Russians to play the arbiter role can provide the Iranians an out. Their history suggests they will go for it." • • • TRUMP AND PUTIN AGREE ON IRAN. At least on Iran leaving Syria. Israel Hayoum published na article on Friday that has not yet been picked up by the US media. The Israel Hayoum headline is : "Official : Trump and Putin agreed to get Iran out of Syria. Two leaders reportedly agreed on issue during July meeting in Helsinki." • The Israel Hayom Staff wrote that : "US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly agreed in principle that Iranian forces should exit Syria when they met in Helsinki in July, according to a US administration official familiar with the meeting. However, the official told Bloomberg that the Russian leadership said securing Iran's withdrawal from Syria would be difficult." Israel Hayoum states that Trump and Putin also : "discussed the ongoing campaign against the Islamic State terrorist group, the dispute over Israeli sovereignty in the Golan Heights and the humanitarian situation in Syria, the official told Bloomberg. According to the Bloomberg report, Trump briefed his chief of staff, John Kelly, National Security Advisor John Bolton, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman for 15 minutes immediately after meeting one-on-one with Putin....During their meeting, the two leaders said their countries would work together to ensure Israel's security. The Russian leader said that during the 'very successful' one-on-one meeting, Trump placed a special emphasis on maintaining Israel's security." Israel Prome Minister Netanyahu welcomed the US's 'deep commitment,' his office said in a statement after the summit. The prime minister 'greatly appreciates the security coordination between Israel and Russia and expressed the clear position to President Putin on the need to maintain the separation agreements between Israel and Syria in 1974,' the statement said. • • • THE BLOOMBERG ARTICLE. It was published online at just after midnight on Friday. In it, Justin Sink also wrote : "But the meeting garnered little in terms of concrete agreement, and the two sides did not approve the extension of a pair of arms control treaties during the talks. Russian negotiators have sought to engage the Trump administration on renegotiating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and renewing the New START treaty governing both nations’ weapons capacities. The latter agreement, negotiated under former President Barack Obama, expires in 2021. Both arms control and Syria are expected to be on the agenda as White House National Security Advisor John Bolton meets with Russian officials next week in Geneva. Putin and Trump agreed in Helsinki to order the meeting of the two nations’ senior national security staff." Bloomberg reports that : "During his closed-door meeting with Putin, the US President told his Russian counterpart that he expected meddling to stop in the 2018 election, according to the official. The topic was the first raised by Trump during their bilateral conversation, the official said. In the talks, Trump also raised concerns with Putin over the Nordstream 2 pipeline intended to provide Russian natural gas to Europe, as well as discussions of Iran and North Korea’s nuclear programs, the official said." • • • THE TURKEY CRISIS. It is all about an American pastor being held in Turkey. Bloomberg, in the sale article in which Iran was discussedn reported that : "Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the US is ready to slap Turkey with more sanctions if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refuses the quick release of an American pastor, escalating a diplomatic rift that has roiled global financial markets. 'We put sanctions on several of the Cabinet members,' Mnuchin said Thursday during a Cabinet meeting at the White House. 'We have more that we’re planning to do if they don’t release him quickly.' ” • Bloomberg wrote that Mnuchin’s remarks were prompted by President Trump, who said Turkey has “not proven to be a good friend” to the US Trump complained that his administration had secured the release of a Turkish citizen from an unnamed country on behalf of Erdogan, who didn’t reciprocate by releasing pastor Andrew Brunson. Trump said : “We got somebody out for him. He needed help getting somebody out of some place, he came out. They want to hold our wonderful pastor. Not fair. Not right.” Bloomberg stated that : "Trump was referring to his urging that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu release a Turkish citizen, Ebru Ozkan, who’d been arrested in Israel on accusations of abetting Hamas, a person with knowledge of the matter said. Netanyahu did it, and Ozkan was sent back to Turkey on July 16. Trump thought he had a deal for Brunson’s release, an administration official said. Instead, Turkey moved the pastor to house arrest. The President’s frustration was signaled in a meeting between White House National Security Advisor John Bolton and Turkish Ambassador to the US Serdar Kilic earlier this week. Bolton flatly told the ambassador, who had requested the meeting to discuss the dispute, to release Brunson, according to the official. • Pastor Brunson is still being held and President Trump continued his barrage against the Ankara government on Thursday evening with a tweet : "Turkey has taken advantage of the United States for many years. They are now holding our wonderful Christian Pastor, who I must now ask to represent our Country as a great patriot hostage. We will pay nothing for the release of an innocent man, but we are cutting back on Turkey!" • Bloomberg says that the plight of Brunson "has dominated the Trump administration’s policy toward its NATO ally, even as the dispute shakes currency markets. Brunson, who Turkish officials say had links to a failed 2016 coup, is being held under house arrest. A lower court already turned down his lawyer’s request to free him and the US has said it won’t negotiate until he’s released." • Erdogan has said the standoff would push Turkey to forge other alliances. His government said it would not comply with US sanctions against Iran, a key oil supplier to Turkey. Erdogan has also moved to shore up alliances in Europe and the Middle East, easing pressure on the battered lira, as the standoff with the US has deepened. Efforts to rally support and bolster domestic markets included a call Thursday between Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak and international investors. • Erdogan is courting Europe. He spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron, a day after talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. While Berlin isn’t offering any aid, the conversation reflects the stakes on both sides and Germany’s sway as the biggest economy in Europe. Germany wants Turkey to avoid a financial meltdown and can’t allow the country to descend into chaos, according to a person familiar with Merkel’s thinking who asked not to be identified. After a war of words over democratic values sent relations to a low point a year ago, Germany is also making an overture by hosting Erdogan for a state visit on September 28. Relations between Berlin and Ankara deteriorated as Erdogan consolidated power after the failed coup in 2016. Tensions escalated after Turkey detained a group of a human-rights activists and jailed a German journalist. Another dispute led Germany to withdraw troops from a NATO air base in Turkey. But Erdogan’s overtures to Europe suggest he’s prepared to mend ties in an attempt to weather the US pressure. Bloomberg says : "A $15 billion pledge of support from Qatar will help Turkey buy time as it tries to contain double-digit inflation and a mass of foreign currency debt, investors say. But it won’t replace the need for new policy. Qatar’s pledge rewards Erdogan for standing by the gas-rich Gulf country against a Saudi-led boycott backed by Trump. Turkey’s effort to bolster its political alliances came in tandem with steps taken by authorities to support the banking system and curb short selling of the lira. The lira had lost as much as a quarter of its value within a matter of weeks after the US sanctioned members of Erdogan’s government. Albayrak on Thursday ruled out restrictions on movement of capital as a policy option, helping lift the currency before Mnuchin’s remarks." • But, as of Friday afternoon in Turkey, the Turkish lira has taken another battering, falling 5% to 6.1 to the dollar (it lost nearly 7% at one stage) and the Turkish stock market is down 1%. The Guardian calls it "a tumultuous week that saw the lira go into meltdown on Monday when it hit a record low of 7.2 against the dollar and the panic spread to other emerging markets. A pledge by Turkey’s central bank to provide liquidity to banks and other measures, a pledge from Qatar to provide $15bn in loans to Turkey, and reassuring words from the finance minister yesterday helped calm nerves. But this afternoon, a Turkish court rejected a US pastor’s appeal for release, a day after the United States warned of further sanctions unless Ankara hands over Andrew Brunson, who is under house arrest. Reuters reported that a court in the western province of Izmir rejected an appeal to release the paster, saying evidence was still being collected and he posed a potential flight risk, according to a copy of the court ruling seen by the news agency." • All this, added to the deeper problems in the Turkish economy, has caused the lira to lose nearly 40% of its value against the dollar this year. The currency crisis has heightened concerns about the Turkish economy, in particular its dependence on energy imports and its foreign-currency debt burden. The Guardian says Standard & Poor’s is expected to downgrade Turkey’s sovereign credit rating after the markets close today. Turkish markets will be closed from midday on Monday for the rest of the week for the Muslem Eid al-Adha festival. • And, the troubles in Turkey are weighing on European stock markets, which are down between 0.3 and 0.9%. But, experts say the impact of Turkey's economic problems on the Eurozone will be very limited. The Eurozone earns 0.57% of its GDP by selling goods to Turkey. Even a 20% fall in exports to Turkey would not subtract more than 0.1% from annual Eurozone GDP growth. As global demand remains healthy, Eurozone firms could likely contain the damage further by switching to other markets for some of these affected goods with only modest reductions in their selling prices. Spain, France and Italy are the most exposed Eurozone countries to Turkey. According to the Bank of International Settlements data, the exposure to Turkey of banks domiciled in these countries stands at $81 billion for Spain, $35 billion for France and $18 billion for Italy. A major part of this consists of relatively non-dangerous equity stakes in Turkish banks, so the risk that the exposure of some banks to Turkey could turn into a systemic problem for the Eurozone or cause tightening credit conditions in Spain, Italy or France is remote. Experts say the real risk in Europe comes from the noise level that undermines confidence and hence the readiness to spend and invest. • • • BUT, THE TRUMP IRAN SANCTIONS ARE TAKING HOLD. It may take time for Europe to come into full agreement with the US strategy on Turkey -- it is afterall a short term problem that will be solved -- but the European defense of Iran is a very different matter that requires the attention of Secretary Mnuchin above all. • In this regard, it is important to note that Fox News reported on August 8 that : "The US campaign to rein in Iran has scored a victory in the German financial sector, after the Deutsche Bundesbank -- the country’s central bank -- imposed a rule stopping a $400 million cash delivery to Teheran. Iran's cash-starved economy desperately needs hard currency ahead of crippling US bank sanctions that will be introduced in November. Germany allows the Iranian-owned European-Iranian trade bank (EIH) to operate in Hamburg. The EIH holds more than $400 million that Teheran wants to receive in cash ahead of a second wave of US sanctions due in November that impact banks and Iran’s energy sector." Fox News says : "The Deutsche Bundesbank has cooperated with the EIH in the past to circumvent US sanctions on Iran. The US and the European Union previously sanctioned the EIH for its role in advancing Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. The sanctions on the EIH were lifted after the world powers reached an agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program in 2015." But, after President Trump exited the Iran deal in May and vowed to impose greater sanctions on the regime, there were reports that German Chancellor Angela Merkel's government was seeking to circumvent the pending sanctions. The US ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell urged her government to stop the massive payment transfer. Grenell says : "“We are grateful to our German partners for recognizing the need to act. Iran’s malign activities throughout Europe are a growing concern.” The US Embassy to Berlin tweeted : "Close partnership = results. Thank you to our German counterparts for acting to stop Iran’s activities." The German central bank's new anti-Iran rule is slated to go into effect on August 25. • While the US government has classified the Islamic Republic of Iran as a top state-sponsor of terrorism, the Merkel administration is going to great lengths to promote trade with Iran. The German Economy Ministry said on Monday “export guarantees and investment guarantees from the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs are still available to companies” that want to operate in Iran. But, as Fox News says : "Major German multinational companies, however, are voting with their feet. Automobile manufacturer Mercedes-Benz announced on Tuesday that it had frozen all business with Iran due 'to applicable sanctions.' The first wave of US sanctions kicked in on Tuesday and will impact Iran’s automobile sector, as well as trade in precious metals. Sportswear giant Adidas meanwhile followed the lead of its US competitor Nike and pulled the plug on its business with Iran. Adidas said in a statement last week that it will not extend commercial agreements with Iran's soccer association. Iran's state-controlled media reported that Adidas withdrew from Iran's market because it fears damage to its business in the US. Peter Kohanloo, the president of the US-based Iranian American Majority organization, told FoxNews.com : 'Germany, France and the UK always talk about human rights and democracy, but by resisting more sanctions, they’re actively opposing a growing revolution inside Iran to replace one of the most egregious human rights violating dictatorships in the world. Germany is making a huge mistake by injecting much-needed cash into the mullahs’ resistance economy as they murder Iranian protesters.' ” • In a joint statement on Monday, Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief, and the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany said : “We are determined to protect European economic operators engaged in legitimate business with Iran.” The EU implemented a “blocking statute” to insulate EU companies active in the Iran from American sanctions. The Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry says that in the first five months of this year, exports to Iran dropped by 4%. Pending US sanctions have heaped pressure on Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. For example, since the 2015 Iran deal, 120 German companies have opened offices in Iran, according to the German industry group, but that trend is sinking. German exports to Iran climbed to $3.96 billion in 2017, up from $2.89 billion in 2016. • • • DEAR READERS, the mainstream media likes to trash President Trump for his sanctions and trade tariff strategies. But, they work. CNBC reported on Monday that the Congressional Research Service estimated that US has taken in "more than $1.4 billion from steel and aluminum tariffs" between March 23 and July 16. The $1.4 billion comes from levies on foreign imports of steel and aluminum. CNBC says : "That figure could reach $7.5 billion this year, based on last year's import levels....the US reaped $1.1 billion and $344.2 million from levies on foreign steel and aluminum, respectively....CRS says the new tariffs could reap the US some $7.5 billion -- $5.8 billion on steel and $1.7 billion on aluminum -- based on last year's import levels. In 2017, the US imported $29 billion worth of steel products covered the tariffs and $17.4 billion worth of aluminum." • President Trump has suggested that the tariffs could have the added benefit of reducing the federal deficit, which rose to $77 billion in July, wider than the July 2017 budget deficit of $43 billion. "Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 Trillion in debt that has been accumulated" President Trump tweeted on August 5. "At minimum, we will make much better Trade Deals for our country!" Tariff payments are collected by the US Customs and Border Patrol and go directly into the Treasury's general coffers. The Congressional Research Service acknowledged that tariff revenue would be impacted by "dynamic effects," like exclusions granted by the Commerce Department and reimbursements to companies that have already been paying tariffs. As of August 6, the Commerce Department had received 33,099 exclusion requests, approving 1,428 requests, while denying 702. • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC : "We're early in the stages, so I'm not going to give specific numbers...our long-term objective is not to collect tariffs. Our longer-term objective is to have free and fair and reciprocal trade." • CNBC reported on Thursday that National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow confirmed to it earlier reports saying China and the US will hold a fresh round of trade talks later in August, giving investors hope that the two world's largest economies can solve their trade spat. But, Kudlow warned that President Trump has a strong resolve to make sure the administration gets a good deal. Kudlow, as director of the National Economic Council and one of Trump's top advisors, will likely be involved when a Chinese delegation visits the US, though he said in an interview with CNBC that David Malpass, the under secretary of the Treasury for international affairs, will act as lead : "The Chinese government, in its totality, must not underestimate President Trump's toughness and willingness to continue this battle to eliminate tariffs and nontariff barriers and quotas, to stop the theft of intellectual property and to stop the forced transfer of technology. Those are the asks that we've been making now for quite some time." Kudlow's statements, said CNBC, "come amid market optimism that the two sides will be able to avert a trade war that some fear could spill over globally and stanch the economic momentum the US has seen during the Trump administration. The President has vowed to renegotiate global trade deals that have worked against the US, and he has targeted China specifically for tariffs on $50 billion worth of goods so far. Kudlow said : "Let's just see what happens. Sometimes talks can produce better outcomes than expected....We're the most competitive economy in the world because of the unexpected boom as the result of new policies." As Kudlow spoke, Wall Street was in a rally following several volatile days of trading. Stocks surged at Thursday's opening after the China headlines broke. The Dow Jones finished up 400 points on Thursday, the biggest one-day gain since April. Kudlow also said US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is "getting close" to a trade deal with Mexico. And he said the strong dollar is a "sign of confidence" in the United States. • Stay tuned, fellow Deplorables. President Trump is on the move.