The Middle East Is Heating Up -- Iran and Russia Should Heed Israel's and President Trump's Warnings

THE REAL NEWS TODAY IS ABOUT RUSSIA'S GROWING MEDITERRANEAN PRESENCE. It has the attention of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. • • • RUSSIA BEEFING UP ITS MEDITERRANEAN NAVAL PRESENCE. The Washington Free Beacon reported last week that : "Russia is increasing its naval presence in the Mediterranean in response to heightened tensions in Syria, according to a NATO spokesperson. The build-up comes as Syria’s government is expected to start an assault in northern Idlib province, the last stronghold of the rebels. At least eight ships have joined Russia’s Mediterranean fleet, ABC reports. Oana Lungescu, NATO’s chief spokeswoman, said Wednesday : 'We will not speculate on the intention of the Russian fleet, but it is important that all actors in the region exercise restraint and refrain from worsening an already disastrous humanitarian situation in Syria.' " • Moscow claims Syrian rebels are preparing a chemical attack in Idlib to prompt a western assault on Syrian government forces, according to the Free Beacon. The United States has said it would respond to a chemical attack by government forces in the Syrian province. Earlier this year, the United States, Britain, and France struck Syrian military targets after an alleged chemical attack, although Russia and Syria deny the Syrian government has used chemical weapons. President Trump and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have called on Russia to resist escalating the conflict in Syria. NATO has also expressed concern about Russia’s upcoming war games with China, saying next month’s exercises demonstrate "Russia's focus on exercising large-scale conflict." Dylan White, NATO’s acting deputy spokesman, said the exercises fit "into a pattern we have seen over some time : a more assertive Russia, significantly increasing its defense budget and its military presence." The exercises, named Vostok and scheduled for September 11-15, will be Russia’s largest in almost 40 years, including about 300,000 soldiers. Russia also invited 3,200 Chinese troops to participate. Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center noted : "For Russia, it’s mostly about signaling to the US that protracted tensions are pushing the Kremlin closer into the orbit of another geopolitical rival." • • • THE US 2nd FLEET RETURNS. The Washington Times reported last Tuesday that the US Navy is bringing back the legendary 2nd Fleet to counter a rising Russian threat in the Atlantic and Arctic. The Washingotn Times' Carlo Muñoz wrote that : "It was the US Navy’s storied 2nd Fleet that stared down Soviet nukes during the Cuban Missile Crisis more than a half-century ago. Now, the Pentagon has brought the fleet back to counter an increasingly aggressive Russian military around the world. The 2nd Fleet 'was born by virtue of a dynamic event,' said Admiral John M. Richardson, chief of naval operations. He said the fleet holds a legendary role in preventing the Cold War from turning hot and is well-postured to curb Russian expansionism today. 'You do get a sense of the gravity of this moment,' Admiral Richardson said Friday aboard the USS George H.W. Bush at a ceremony marking the fleet’s return to combat operations after nearly a decade of dormancy. The ceremony was held at the 2nd Fleet’s Norfolk headquarters just days before Russia announced plans to hold its biggest war games in nearly four decades. The Russian military will hold massive exercises [in September] with the Chinese and Mongolian armies. Although the Russian announcement Tuesday caused a stir at the Pentagon, US officials said their decision to reinstate the 2nd Fleet -- a development that was months in the making -- was driven mainly by a need to undergird American naval dominance in the Atlantic." • The Washington Times states that Russian naval activity has surged on and below the North Atlantic and through the Arctic Circle in recent years. With the 2nd Fleet disbanded since 2011, the job of matching and countering Russian operations in those regions has fallen almost solely on the US Navy’s 6th Fleet, whose responsibilities were already stretched between European and North African waterways. Top US and NATO leaders agreed that the 2nd Fleet’s reactivation was overdue. “It’s about time,” Adm. Richardson said Friday. “It may have been too long.” NATO is bolstering the development by creating the Joint Force Command-Norfolk, NATO’s counterpart to the 2nd Fleet, which is set to break ground in the coming weeks. According to the Washington Times : "Officials say an increase in Russian submarine activity in the Atlantic, combined with reports that Moscow is testing a long-range, nuclear-powered missile in the Barents Sea -- a waterway in the Arctic between Russian and Norwegian waters -- are signs that Russia is pushing to expand its operational boundaries in both regions. The challenge posed to the US and its allies in the North Atlantic, specifically, has made the region 'the most rapidly changing national security [situation] in recent years,' said Admiral Richardson. 'The Navy is responding.' " • A surge in Arctic Circle activity by Russian submarines -- by far the most potent segment of Moscow’s naval fleet -- has sent US officials scrambling to respond in recent years. Sources told the Washington Times that the Pentagon’s concern "centers on the potential threat that the Russian subs pose to some 550,000 miles of underwater fiber-optic cables that crisscross the Atlantic and Arctic ocean floors and transmit some of America’s most sensitive military secrets." • Admiral Richardson signaled that the 2nd Fleet’s initial mission will likely be to address a separate burgeoning threat : long-range weapons that Moscow seeks to field in the near future. “A new 2nd Fleet increases our strategic flexibility to respond, from the Eastern Seaboard all the way to the Barents Sea,” Richardson said during his speech. A growth in US Navy operations in and around the Barents, which abuts Russia’s northern coastline, suggests a growing desire at the Pentagon to contain Russia’s naval operations space and to tighten the noose around any long-range missile development by Moscow, reports the Washington Times. • The Washington Times says Russia has conducted "several tests of its Kalibr cruise missile in the Barents Sea and elsewhere in the North Atlantic. The Kalibr has been used by Russian warships moored off the Syrian coastline in long-range strikes against Islamic State and others inside Syria." Vice Admiral Andrew “Woody” Lewis, who has been named commander of the 2nd Fleet, declined on Friday to indicate how active the fleet may become in the Arctic region but said it will “be able to operate in all environments.” With regard to the Arctic specifically, he said, the region “is a priority focus, [but] whether or not it will be the No. 1 focus, it remains to be seen.” • The US has approximately 14 attack submarines and nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines patrolling the world’s waterways, although officials rarely divulge details on submarine positioning and areas of operation. Regardless of where fleet commanders decide to deploy the 2nd Fleet, Navy leaders must be ready to adapt to the “dynamic security environment” posed by Moscow, Admiral Richardson said. In the North Atlantic alone, he said, the Russian navy is sailing at “an operational tempo we have not seen in the last 25 years.” • • • IRAN ALSO IN AN EXPANSIONIST MILITARY MOOD. The US 2nd Fleet may be focused on Russia, but Reuters reported on Sunday that : "Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday war was unlikely but called on Iran’s armed forces to boost their defense capacities, according to his official website, as the country faces increased tension with the United States. On Saturday, Iran announced plans to boost its ballistic and cruise missile capacity and acquire modern fighter planes and submarines to boost its defenses following the US pullout from Teheran’s nuclear agreement with world powers." Reuters said : “Ayatollah Khamenei emphasized that based on political calculations there is no likelihood of a military war but added that the armed forces must be vigilant...and raise their personnel and equipment capacities. The Supreme Leader said...the air defense units were a very sensitive part of the armed forces and on the front line of confronting the enemy, and emphasized the need to increase their readiness and capabilities." • Khamenei made his comments at a gathering held to mark Iran’s Air Defense Day, just one day after Iran dismissed a French call for negotiations on Teheran’s future nuclear plans, its ballistic missile arsenal and its role in wars in Syria and Yemen. That seems unlikely as Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said last month the Islamic Republic’s military prowess was what deterred Washington from attacking it. • Separately, a senior Iranian diplomat met visiting UK Junior Foreign Minister Alistair Burt and urged swift European action on a planned package of economic measures to offset the US pullout from the accord and the reimpositions of sanctions by Washington, the Iranian state news agency IRNA reported. Kamal Kharrazi, who heads one of Iran's top foreign policy councils, told UK's Burt : “The imposition of (US) sanctions and pressures and the lack of rapid action by Europe to fulfill their commitments will have serious consequences.” Iranian officials have said they would decide whether to quit the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers after studying the European package of economic measures that could help offset US sanctions. Kharrazi said : "European countries have not been able yet to take necessary measures to secure Iran’s interests under the nuclear agreement.” IRNA reported : "(Burt) said Britain’s position is different from that of the United States and we are looking for a European mechanism to make the nuclear accord successful.” • Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Saturday the talks with Burt had involved “access to banking resources and the sale of oil." Iran seeks a commitment from European signatories of the nuclear deal that it will be able to access the western banking system and continue to sell oil despite US sanctions. In a statement before his visit, Burt said : “As long as Iran meets its commitments under the deal, we remain committed to it as we believe it is the best way to ensure a safe, secure future for the region.” • Most reports coming out of the EU suggest there is little push from industry or banks to help Iran avoid the new US sanctions because of fears that the EU entities would then be frozen out of the US banking system. That would be catastrophic for them. But, Iran's pressure on the EU shows just how worried the ayatollahs are about the US pulling out of the Obama nuclear deal and imposing new sanctions. • • • IRAN'S ACTIONS WORRYING. The Washington Institute published a paper on August 21 by Farzin Nadimi reporting that : "Iran's renewed naval exercises, missile tests, and other developments point to a broadening threat, but their muted nature indicates that Teheran is trying to avoid popular backlash at home." • Nadimi wrote : "On August 2, the air and naval arms of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps began a substantial, unannounced military drill in the Persian Gulf and strategic Strait of Hormuz. The move followed the latest round of threats and counter-threats between Iran and the United States regarding freedom of navigation through the strait, with Washington warning it will bring Iran's oil exports to a virtual standstill as part of reimposed nuclear sanctions, and Teheran saying it would close the narrow waterway to all other oil shipments in retaliation. At the same time, the IRGC has tested or deployed new weapons systems that could broaden the range of threats it poses to military and civilian targets in the Gulf and beyond....Iran had not conducted a large-scale naval exercise in the Gulf since March 2015. Unusually, it launched the latest drill without any of the traditional domestic publicity. The US Navy noted preparations for the exercise shortly before it commenced, but Iranian military officials did not confirm it until after it concluded. The IRGC called it a scheduled exercise on 'controlling and monitoring the strait,' with the aim of showing Iran's readiness to proportionally counter 'any hostile act' in the Gulf....US Central Command chief General Joseph Votel told reporters on August 8 that its scope was in line with past large-scale exercises. He called it a 'warning' to the United States, noting that 'problematic' Iranian capabilities such as sea mines, explosive boats, and antiship missiles could raise concerns if the IRGCN ever attempted to close the strait." • Nadimi stated that : "At some point during the drill, the IRGC tested the Fateh Mobin, a new, versatile guided ballistic missile being developed in the Fateh-110 series. As with the drill itself, Iran did not publicly confirm the missile's existence until August 13, two days after US media reported on it. The IRGC claims the Fateh Mobin can penetrate enemy missile defenses using stealth and maneuverability, hitting land and sea targets with day/night terminal precision....If perfected into an operational system, it could heighten the threat against ships and coastal infrastructure in the Gulf. Although the Fateh Mobin is not expected to have a range beyond 200-300 km, Defense Minister Amir Hatami recently hinted that its terminal guidance technology could be adapted for the Zolfaqar missile, which has a reported range of 700-800 km and was used in strikes against Islamic State targets in east Syria last summer." • Nadimi also reported that : "To strengthen its deterrence and offensive capability, the IRGC Aerospace Force announced on July 25 that ten ex-Iraqi Sukhoi Su-22 Fitter strike aircraft were entering into service after years of overhaul work, reportedly with the help of Syrian, Belarussian, and Ukrainian experts. Last December, the magazine Combat Aircraft reported that as many as sixteen to twenty-two of the jets could be brought back to operational status within the next few years, so more of them may be forthcoming....Although the Su-22 is an aging system, it is a godsend for a country like Iran, which has been unable to acquire or develop modern combat aircraft for decades....The Su-22M-4 version of the Fitter can strike surface targets with a 2,000-kg payload as far as 600-700 km away on a low-altitude mission, and up to 1,150 km if only the attack part of the mission is flown at low altitude. Thus, even operating out of their mother base, armed Fitters can reach as far as Riyadh, a range that includes all US Navy patrol areas, carrier stations, and bases in the Gulf. Of course, Iran's new jets may not be able to evade the more advanced air defense systems, interceptor jets, and early-warning aircraft deployed by Gulf and US forces. Yet in modern warfare, the weapons a jet carries can be more important than the jet itself, and the Fitter may be capable of serving as a range-extending platform for cruise missiles." • Nadimi concludes : "Although Iran's new Fitter jets give it some added capabilities, they will not be game-changers until the IRGC fields a long-range cruise missile for them to carry. More worrisome at the moment is the potential proliferation of precision-guided ballistic missiles like the Fateh Mobin, which can hit targets from land or sea. • • • ISRAEL TARGETS IRAN IN SYRIA. On Tuesday, Israel Today wrote that Israeli defense officials confidently vowed to deal swiftly and decisively with any new Iranian threat to the Jewish state -- and apparently threats to allies as well. Israel Today reported that : "Following reports that Iran had shipped long-range missiles to its proxies in Iraq, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman told reporters : 'As for the threat from Iran, we are not limiting ourselves to Syria. That should be clear....we will handle any Iranian threat, no matter where it comes from. We are maintaining the right to act...and any threat or anything else that comes up is dealt with.' Israel Today said that by placing its missiles in western Iraq, "Iran has now put Tel Aviv easily within range. Most Israelis saw Liberman's remarks as a threat to launch air strikes against those Iranian missiles, even though doing so means violating Iraqi airspace." • Addressing Iran's other major proxy threat, a top Israeli general on Monday warned that the next time Lebanon's Hezbollah terrorist militia starts a war with the Jewish state will be its last. Major General Yoel Strick, head of the IDF Northern Command, said : "Hezbollah will feel the force of our arm. I hope there won’t be another war, but if there is, it won’t be another Second Lebanon War, but the final northern war. Citizens of the State of Israel can remain calm and put their trust in the security establishment, which knows how to act determinedly, accurately, and even to use the most aggressive force possible." • In addition, on Tuesday Israeli outlet Haaretz reported that : "A convoy of Iranian forces was hit by air strikes near the US' Al-Tanf base in Syria, as reported on Monday by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors victims of the fighting. According to the report, an Iranian citizen, four Syrians and three non-Syrian combatants were killed in the attack. Rami Abdel Rahman, the chairman of the Syrian organization, whose headquarters are in London, said that it was not known who was responsible for the attack. The AFT news agency turned to the US-led anti-ISIS coalition asking whether it had bombed the convoy, but there was no response." Haaretz says : "The report of the attack came at a time when Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was visiting Damascus for talks with senior Syrian officials, in advance of the battle for Idlib in the northwest of the country, which is considered the last major rebel enclave. It was the second time in a week that a senior Iranian official visited Syria. Iran's defense minister arrived in Damascus last week and signed an agreement for defensive cooperative between the two countries. Teheran has provided Syrian President Bashar Assad with military support in recent years in his war against the rebel forces opposing his regime." • Many experts say that the attack on Idlib will be a massacre. Haaretz says : "On Friday, Iranian President Hassan Rohani, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are scheduled to meet in Iran to discuss developments in Syria. 'I believe that the meeting will be successful and beneficial for the region, the people of Syria and the struggle against terror,' said Bahram Qassemi, a spokesman for the Iranian Defense Ministry, to Iran's Fars news agency. Qassemi added that Idlib is one of the most complex issues on the agenda, and said that Damascus 'is determined to put an end to this catastrophe. The Syrian government has a right to fight terror in the region. Iran, as a supporter of the government, is present and will continue with its assistance as long as the Syrian government is interested.' " • • • ISRAEL WARNS IRAN BROADLY. The UK Express reported on Monday that : "Israel has sent a chilling warning to Iran that it could attack its military assets in Iraq, similar to what it has done with dozens of air strikes in Syria. Reuters, citing Iranian, Iraqi and Western sources, had previously reported that Iran had moved short-range ballistic missiles to Shi’ite allies in Iraq, but Teheran and Baghdad have both formally denied that. Israel Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman issued the threat of attack during a press conference hosted and broadcast live by the Israeli Television News Company. He said: 'We are certainly monitoring everything that is happening in Syria and, regarding Iranian threats, we are not limiting ourselves just to Syrian territory. This also needs to be clear. I am saying that we will contend with any Iranian threat, and it doesn't matter from where it comes.' There was no immediate response from Iraq’s government or from US Central Command in Washington, which oversees US military operations in Iraq." • Israel's warning to Iran came after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, referring to a UN Security Council resolution (UNSCR) endorsing the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, tweeted : “Deeply concerned about reports of Iran transferring ballistic missiles into Iraq. If true, this would be a gross violation of Iraqi sovereignty and of UNSCR 2231. Baghdad should determine what happens in Iraq, not Teheran.” • The Express said : "According to Reuters, citing regional sources, Israel started carrying out air strikes in Syria in 2013 against suspected arms transfers and deployments by Iran. Avigdor Lieberman issued the threat to Iran, adding: 'Israel's freedom is total.' A Western diplomat revealed last year that Israel was not expected to take any military action in Iraq, where the US has been struggling to achieve stability since invading Iraq and toppling Saddam Hussein in 2003. But last week, satellite images released by Israel appeared to show a missile factory being built in Iran as Tel Aviv accused the nation of building ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel’s capital. The development, which appears to be a factory, is being built in northwest Syria, near the town of Baniyas. It lies in an area protected by the Russian S-400 aerial defence system, one of the most sophisticated in the world. The S-400 can engage multiple aerial targets within a 400 kilometre range and is a threat even to American aircraft." The Express quoted ImageSat International, the Israel-based company whose satellite images captured the growing development, saying its layout was similar to Parchin, Iran’s top secret missile development center...it is reasonable to assume the missiles are being developed to add to Iran and Hezbollah’s arsenals for use against Israel. • • • IRAN SMUGGLING ARMS INTO LEBANON. On Tuesday, Fox News reported : "An Iranian civil aviation company is suspected of smuggling arms into Lebanon, destined for the militant group Hezbollah and Iranian weapons factories -- and western intelligence sources said Monday they've uncovered the unexpected routes that Iran apparently took to try avoiding detection. The sources identified two rare and unusual Qeshm Fars Air flights from Teheran to the international airport in Beirut during the past two months. The first flight, on July 9, involved a Boeing 747 that departed from an air force base in Teheran, stopped for a short layover at the international airport in Damascus, Syria, and then continued with a rather 'uncharacteristic flight path' to the Beirut international airport, where it landed shortly after 4 p.m. local time....A regional intelligence source who asked to remain anonymous said : 'The Iranians are trying to come up with new ways and routes to smuggle weapons from Iran to its allies in the Middle East, testing and defying the West’s abilities to track them down.' Western intelligence sources said the airplane carried components for manufacturing precise weapons in Iranian factories inside Lebanon. The US and Israel, as well as other western intelligence agencies, have supplied evidence that Iran has operated weapons factories in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen." • Fox News also reported : "Last week, citing Iranian, Iraqi and Western sources, the Reuters news agency reported that Iran had transferred short-range ballistic missiles to its Shiite allies inside Iraq in recent months. Teheran and Baghdad formally denied that report....The United States is Lebanon’s primary security partner, according to the State Department. Since 2006, the US has provided Lebanon over $1.7 billion in security assistance, in part to counter Hezbollah’s influences. Hezbollah is considered a terror organization by many U.S. officials and other western countries, and is backed and funded by Iran." • • • IRAN SEEKING WMD SAYS GERMAN INTEL. Back on June 1, Fox News reported that : "Iran’s regime has not stopped its drive to secure technology and scientific knowledge to produce weapons of mass destruction, the intelligence agency of the German state of Baden-Württemberg disclosed in a report last week. 'Iran continued to undertake, as did Pakistan and Syria, efforts to obtain goods and know-how to be used for the development of weapons of mass destruction and to optimize corresponding missile delivery systems,' said the intelligence document, reviewed by FoxNews.com. The intelligence agency -- the State Office for the Protection of the Constitution -- monitors threats to Germany’s democratic, constitutional order and is the equivalent of the FBI, operating at the state level. 'The observation and combating of proliferation efforts of ... Iran was also an important task of counterintelligence' in 2017 in Baden-Württemberg, said the report....FoxNews.com reported in February that Iranian businessmen purchased material from the Krempel firm in Baden-Württemberg that later turned up in chemical rockets used to gas Syrian civilians in January and February. Even after the revelation of the German construction material in the Iranian-produced chemical rockets, Germany’s Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control declined to halt trade between Krempel and the Islamic Republic. The Baden-Württemberg intelligence officials said they had gathered 'intensive intelligence on activities of Iran’s spy agencies.' The 345-page report, released May 24, devotes lengthy sections to Iran’s sponsorship of the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah, and to Teheran’s espionage agencies and state agencies of repression -- the Ministry of Intelligence of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and Revolutionary Guards Intelligence....According to the report, 'Iran has continued unchanged the pursuit of its ambitious program to acquire technology for its rocket and missile delivery program.'....Iran’s regime seeks German software, sophisticated vacuum and control engineering technologies, measurement devices and advanced electrical equipment for its missile program, said the report. Germany has been the European country most reluctant to crack down on trade with the Islamic Republic....Each of Germany's 16 states has a dometsic intelligence agency. FoxNews.com’s examination of additional intelligence reports released in April and May from the German states of Bavaria, Saxony-Anhalt, Schleswig-Holstein and Saxony detailed, in terms similar to those in the Baden-Württemberg document, Iran’s illicit procurement behavior in Germany and its threat to international security." • • • THE GREAT MIDDLE EASTERN WAR OF 2019. That is what The Washington Institute report written by Nadav Ben Hour and Michael Eisenstadt calls it : "Far from simply replaying the 2006 Lebanon war, the next conflict on Israel's northern frontier will likely involve many more actors on multiple fronts, raising unprecedented challenges for escalation management." You can read the full report at < https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-great-middle-eastern-war-of-2019 >. Major Nadav Ben Hour, IDF, is a visiting military fellow with The Washington Institute. Michael Eisenstadt is the Institute's Kahn Fellow and director of its Military and Security Studies Program. • Ben Hour and Eisenstadt say : "Growing tensions on Israel's northern border have raised concerns about yet another Israel-Hezbollah confrontation or a war between Israel and Iran in Syria. Such a war may not be limited to the original participants, but could involve an array of Shi'a militias and even the Assad regime, and could span the region -- thereby affecting vital US interests. Two factors are driving these tensions : efforts by Hezbollah and Syria -- with Iran's help -- to produce highly accurate missiles in Lebanon and Syria that could cripple Israel's critical infrastructure and make life there intolerable; and Iran's efforts to transform Syria into a springboard for military operations against Israel and a platform for projecting power in the Levant. Iran, however, while pursuing an anti-status quo agenda that has often brought it into conflict with Israel and the United States, has shown that it seeks to avoid conventional wars and consequent heavy losses to its own forces. Instead, it relies on proxy operations, terrorism, and non-lethal shaping activities. Yet it has occasionally been willing to venture high-risk activities that entail a potential for escalation. (Example: Iranian forces in Syria launched an explosives-laden UAV into Israeli airspace in February; it was shot down, but the incident sparked a round of clashes.) Israel also seems intent on avoiding war, though its actions show that it is willing to accept the risk of escalation to counter these emerging threats. Indeed, since 2013 it has carried out more than 130 strikes in Syria on arms shipments destined for Hezbollah, and since late 2017 it has expanded this 'campaign between the wars' to target Iranian military facilities in Syria -- without, thus far, sparking a wider confrontation. Complacency is, however, unwarranted. The two major Arab-Israeli confrontations of the recent past (Lebanon 2006, Gaza 2014) resulted from unintended escalation. The emerging dynamic between Israel, Iran, and the "axis of resistance" is a formula for a third major 'accident,' and so deserves careful analysis." • Ben Hour and Eisenstadt explain that the potential for yet another war of "unprecedented scope and complexity" is an outcome of the Syrian civil war, which has enabled Iran to build a military infrastructure in Syria and to deploy its Shi'a "foreign legion" to Israel's borders. War is now possible "on multiple fronts and in far-flung theaters, fought on land, in the air, at sea, and in information and cyber domains by fighters from Hezbollah, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and even Yemen. The widened scope of a possible war will create new military options for Iran and Hezbollah, and stretch Israeli capabilities to their limits....Such a war is most likely to occur as a result of unintended escalation, after another Iranian action against Israel from Syria, or after an Israeli strike in Lebanon or Syria (for example, against missile production facilities). It could start as a result of a US and/or Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program. It might even come about as a result of a conflict that starts in the Gulf but that reaches Israel's borders -- perhaps as a result of Iranian diversionary moves (much as Saddam Hussein tried in 1991 to derail the US military campaign to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait by launching missiles at Israel)." • The current situation is extremely worrying, especially since Russia is now a key player in the region, whose reaction to such conflicts is largely unknown and unknowable. Add to this, say Ben hour and Eisenstadt, the US : "Will Washington remain militarily uninvolved -- beyond perhaps augmenting Israeli missile defenses -- or will it play a more active role, seeing this as an opportunity to strike a blow against Iran, and thereby advance its goal of undermining the latter's influence in the region? Depending on how events play out, Israel could face a disquieting possibility : Russian efforts to thwart its use of decisive force, US reticence, and ineffectual great power diplomacy could prevent Israel from achieving its full military aims -- not entirely unlike the denouement of the October 1973 war. That could ensure a protracted war, and perhaps a war that ends without Israel fulfilling its aims." • "The next war on Israel's northern front, according to Ben Hour and Eisenstadt, "whether it starts in Lebanon or Syria, will not be just a more extensive and destructive replay of the 2006 Lebanon War. Developments since then ensure that such a war will likely involve many more actors, a much larger theater of operations, unprecedented challenges for escalation management, warfighting, and war termination -- and the possibility of a regional conflagration" but, there are several ways that the United States and Israel can shape the operational environment to enhance the odds of an outcome compatible with their shared interests with respect to Iran and its axis of resistance, should war come : "Play on Iran's Escalation Aversion. Iran generally seeks to avoid or deter conventional wars, and is sensitive to threats to the regime and the homeland....[so] deter Iran from actions that could lead to such a conflict in the first place, or its spread to Iran -- which could jeopardize Iran's vital economic interests (if, for example, its oil infrastructure were to be hit), and the stability of the Assad regime in Syria. Support Israel's 'Campaign Between the Wars' in Syria. Israeli attempts to disrupt Iran's military build-up in Syria have already sparked clashes there. Yet such efforts might reduce the need for Israeli preventive action in a crisis, the potential for escalation in wartime, and the amount of damage wrought in a future war. The US government should support these efforts, and reinforce Israeli diplomacy with Russia to preserve Israeli military freedom of action in Syria. It should also quietly indicate to Russia that a war in Syria might jeopardize Moscow's recent military achievements there, by encouraging surviving Syrian rebel groups to resume their fight against an enfeebled Assad regime. Keep Hezbollah 'Out.'....Keep US Forces 'In' Syria....Foster Arab-Israeli Cooperation....Ending the War. Conflict termination has posed challenges in recent Arab-Israeli conflicts, and the multiplicity of actors with diverse interests involved in a northern front war will make this even more complicated than before....This reality further underscores the need for Israel to develop viable operational concepts, new 'ways of war,' and credible defeat mechanisms, so that it can decide and terminate future wars on its own terms. And it highlights the need for the United States to remain engaged in the region so that if war comes, it can ensure that Israel has the freedom of action to achieve its war aims, and thereby advance US interests in countering and curtailing Iranian influence in the region." • • • DEAR READERS, it is clear that President Trump is paying close attention to the Middle East. The President warned Syria, Russia, and Iran not to let its next phase of the Syrian civil war become a humanitarian catastrophe, in a Monday evening tweet : "President Bashar al-Assad of Syria must not recklessly attack Idlib Province. The Russians and Iranians would be making a grave humanitarian mistake to take part in this potential human tragedy. Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed. Don’t let that happen!" Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has been supported by Russia and Iran no matter how criminal his actions against Syrian rebels have been. President Trump’s warning appears to include a threat of military action -- President Trump has previously struck the Syrian regime twice since his presidency for use of chemical weapons. In both cases, the President warned the Syrian and Russian regimes beforehand that these actions would not be tolerated on the battlefield. Trump always speaks clearly. Russia and Iran -- Take Heed !!!