The EU, Its Political Right, Germany, Greece, the IMF and President Trump

The US media has scarcely noticed that President Trump is looking beyond US borders to influence political thought -- in Europe especially. And, true to his instinctive grasp of all things political, Trump understands that no area of the world is in such political flux right now as Europe. • • • DOES TRUMP WANT TO RESCUE THE EU? President Trump has agreed to meet with America's NATO partners in May, and Trump’s national security initiatives may play a role with NATO, displaying a much wider strategic importance than many realize. Could the US again ride to the rescue of Europe, this time indirectly? First, the Commander-in-Chief’s order to the Pentagon to develop a plan within 30 days to defeat ISIS is the kind of common sense not seen in more than a decade. Obama had placed ISIS headquarters and logistics off limits to US raids, leading many to believe he was an ally of the terrorists rather than their enemy. ISIS will quickly disapppear into history if the full power of the US military is unleashed. So, Trump's first step to help Europe is to get rid of the ISIS threat. Step two is to stop the refugee flow into the EU that is killing European solidarity and destroying its Christian cultural foundation, as Progressive socialist government elites bend ordinary citizens to their will of supporting a multicultural open border Europe. • How would Trump accomplish all this? His plan to establish safe zones in Syria and Yemen with the support of Egyptian president Fattah Abdel El-Sisi and Saudi Arabia King Salman will not only benefit the Syrian and Yemeni people by keeping them safe in their own countries, but provide an obvious boost to US security by reducing or eliminating the refugee flow not only to Europe but to America. But, the plan also provides an “out” to ideologically globalist European leaders unable or unwilling to acknowledge and act on the violent crime and terrorism perpetrated against their own citizens. Establishing safe zones will not be easy, and will require both coalition air power and allied ground troops, perhaps including US troops, to maintain security perimeters for the safe zones. • The refugee crisis exists not only in the Mediterranean but also in northern Europe. Norway, although it has far fewer refugees than Italy or Greece, has been at odds with the UN and world opinion because it deports refugees. Over two years ago, Somalia refused to accept its own countrymen deported from Norway because they were “forced” deportations. Recently, Norway began deporting so-called “biking refugees” coming from Russia on their shared Arctic Circle border. More than 5,000 have made their way to Norway, including Syrians and Iraqis. The UN has criticized Norway because in its view, Russia does not provide a safe environment for these refugees, and they have nowhere else to go. So, where can these refugees go when a nation exercises its right to deny entry or to deport those denied asylum? Trump's answer is to keep them to safe zones in their own country. While Norway's problem is minimal, there is a massive situation in both France and Germany where huge refugee populations from Moslem states are infiltrated by a significant number of embedded terrorists and criminals. If Trump’s plan succeeds, German and French leaders will no longer have an excuse to oppose their own citizens objecting to keeping refugees in their home countries. • • • IMMIGRATION AND REFUGEES FEED THE RISE OF THE EUROPEAN RIGHT. The world is well-acquainted with France's Marine Le Pen, the Front National candidate for president who is currently leading French voter polls for the first round of April's election. But, there is also Pernille Vermund, the new Danish anti-migrant leader, who wants Denmark to get out of the EU and develop strong ties with the UK and Norway. Vermund is proposing a ban on headscarves in schools and public institutions, stricter controls on migrants and an exit from the EU. Vermund also wants to limit Danish citizenship to people who “contribute positively” to society and have a job and to give asylum only to refugees from the UN’s refugee agency’s resettlement scheme. Vermund says : “Those who don’t have the ability to provide for themselves, we have to ask them to find another place to stay.” Vermund began her political life as a member of the Conservative People’s Party, but she and Peter Seier Christensen founded the Nye Borgerlige party in 2015 after their clashes with the Conservative party over EU membership and Vermund’s failed attempt to become an MP. According to Vermund : “None of the existing right-wing parties in Denmark are against the EU. Some of them are critical, but none of them are critical enough to want to leave.” • And, in The Netherlands, the EU could face a bitter challenge if Party for Freedom (PVV) leader Geert Wilders wins the Dutch election in March. He now comes in first in the polls with 31% of the vote. Wilders would be likely to take the country out of the EU, paving the way for the election of Marine Le Pen in France and her promise to hold a referendum on leaving the Eurozone and the EU. That would leave Germany holding the bill for funding the cash hole left by France (it supplies $20 billion to the EU annually), the UK ($19 billion annually), and The Netherlands ($6.2 billion annually). Germany could afford to make up the lost $45 billion per year, but German citizens would not be happy about it. European analysts say the EU could survive without Britain, but a Dutch departure would be a killer blow as they were part of the original six -- Germany, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. It would leave Angela Merkel’s Germany as the only substantial economy left standing in the EU. Economists believe that if France and the Netherlands were to leave the EU, then the other countries would question why they are still members and bring the whole EU crashing down. • • • TRUMP IS NOT A FAN OF THE EU. In the midst of these crisis points, Ted Malloch, President Trump's proposed new EU ambassador, shocked BBC presenters on Monday morning when he used the word "bullsh*t" live on TV. Malloch predicted the impending political collapse of the EU as President Trump continues to lay down the law about US relations with Europe and NATO. During the BBC interview, Malloch warned that Trump will prove a rude awakening for the European Union. Malloch, an economist, was blunt during his live radio interview, rejecting the "baby talk and political correctness" of EU elites such as Angela Merkel, Jean-Claude Juncker and Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament's Brexit negotiator. Donald Trump doesn't want Germany to rule Europe, according to Malloch, who supported Brexit. Malloch said that whether the EU likes it or not, President Trump will only deal with countries on a nation-by-nation basis. He warned that Britain is still a major European power post-Brexit and would be crucial in all US relations with the EU. • Verhofstadt recently called for Brussels to reject the ambassadorial appointment. Malloch's answer was that only America would choose American diplomats and if the EU dared to intervene, there would an "equal measure of response in Washington." He also urged Theresa May to continue her role as a bridge between the EU and the US. • And, in true Trump fashion, after attacking, Malloch said : "Trump hopes that Europe succeeds completely and he wants to deal with them bilaterally. But obviously, he doesn’t want a union that is tilted towards Germany. The hope is that the EU can come to some understanding, and the union itself, which is in a process of adjustment, will see its role as something more of an economic integration, rather than political." Malloch added : "Trump won’t cow down to the powers that be. He’ll speak his mind even if gets in trouble or held in disregard by others. It used to be called honesty but in the age of baby talk and political correctness, and mostly bullsh*t, it's now regarded as dishonesty." • • • GREECE REMAINS THE ELEPHANT IN THE EU ROOM. Greece has until February 20 to deal with "potentially disastrous" debt, according to the IMF. Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras needs to persuade the IMF that his country can meet its financial targets. Tsipras faces the dilemma of agreeing to additional austerity to satisfy Greece's creditors and reassure the IMF, or of calling fresh elections that he would very likely lose. Without further pension cuts and tax increases, the IMF does not believe Greece can attain a primary budget surplus of 3.5%. At a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers last week, Athens found itself out in the cold with even its ally, the European Commission, failing to defend it. Tsipras has declared he is not prepared to take an “extra Euro” in austerity measures beyond those the country has committed to under its current €86 billion bailout. Passage of some of the harshest cuts yet has seen the government’s popularity collapse in polls. To ask for more measures when Greece’s state revenues are better than expected is not only “extreme” but “absurd,” Tsipras’ office said. But, with €10.5 billion in debt repayments coming this summer, a rerun of the debt crisis is inevitable if EU bailout disbursements aren’t made. • But, the IMF says that even if the EU continues to support Greece, its economic future is grim. In a devastating assessment that may well dominate future events, the IMF warned that even if reforms are strictly implemented -- and agreed short-term debt relief imposed -- Athens’ debt load is doomed to become “explosive.” The IMF says : “Greece cannot grow out of its debt problem. Greece requires substantial debt relief from its European partners to restore debt sustainability.” The report was prepared by the IMF staff as part of ongoing discussion over whether it should participate in Greece’s latest international bailout. The report is fueling further debate and was formally presented to the IMF executive board on Monday. Short of debt re-profiling by EU member states, its board may decide the IMF cannot join the latest rescue progam agreed with Eurozone partners in 2015. If that happens, the European Central Bank would be unable to include Greek bonds in its bond buying program, also seen as key to Greece’s economic recovery as it would allow it to test its borrowing potential in international markets. • The prospect of fresh austerity measures, such as a reduction in the tax-free threshold and further pension cuts (they have already been cut by more than 50%), comes at a time of worsening social conditions for many Greeks. For the first time since the debt crisis was made public, 53% of those asked in a recent poll said they believe the Euro was “wrong” for their country, with a third calling for the return of the Drachma. Stripped of growth and battered by social cuts and tax increases in order to receive EU bailout funds, Greeks have become poorer and ever more aware of their own insolvency. One in three now live below the poverty line and unemployment hovers around 23%, and at more than 50% for young Greeks who are fleeing their country. The latest impasse has not only seen emigration levels rise and non-repayment of household and business loans soar but also nostalgia for the Drachma grow. Prominent political commentator Pantelis Kapsis told the Guardian : “I am very worried we are heading towards a rupture with the EU. There are lots of signs that at the back of their minds people in Syriza [the ruling leftist party of Tsipras] are entertaining various ideas of going it alone. What is sure is that we are entering a very difficult period which quite possibly could lead us to a point of no return.” • What happens next depends not only on Athens. Events in Europe and Washington will have a determining role. Ahead of Germany’s general election in September, Berlin’s finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has raised the stakes with growing criticism of Greece -- a political tactic that has proved popular with voters who might otherwise support Germany’s far-right AfD party. Earlier this week Bild, the mass-selling newspaper, stoked passions further by suggesting the German government was warming to the idea of Greece leaving the Euro -- a notion Schäuble has openly supported in the past. Greece insists it does not want to leave the Eurozone but sees itself as captive to Germany and German politics. • But, it is not only Germany's Schäuble, the German public and the IMF that are stage center in the Greek crisis. Under its own rules, the IMF is forbidden from putting money into a bailout if it thinks debt is unsustainable. The report presented in Washington Monday allegedly states that the IMF believes Greece’s debt will rise to 275% of national income by 2060, which would undoubtedly put it into the “unsustainable” category. The IMF board will soon discuss the Greek issue -- and, the new player is none other than President Donald Trump. With evidence mounting that Trump has no position about whether Greece gets debt relief, he will nevertheless have a major role in the IMF decision to support the EU in the Greek bailout going forward -- because the US is the biggest shareholder at the IMF and has veto power over any decision it doesn’t like. Trump has expressed strong views criticizing the EU in general and Germany in particular, saying the EU has become a vehicle for German interests. His trade advisor Peter Navarro has accused Germany of running up a massive current account surplus that stands at almost 9% of GDP. This is not only excessive but also a flagrant breach of EU rules. Berlin has refused entreaties from the IMF, the European Commission and the G20 group to run down its surplus by importing more. That would benefit both powerful countries such as the US and the weaker parts of the Eurozone such as Greece, but Germany has steadfastly refused to change its approach. European leaders say they would like the Greek issue to be settled at the finance ministers meeting on February 20. This could still happen -- especially if Germany decided to support the IMF’s call for much more generous debt relief for Greece, or if Berlin bows to pressure from Trump and boosted domestic spending. • • • DEAR READERS, the intransigent positions are so set that the never-ending Greek crisis can easily roll on into summer, when Greece will run out of money and will not be able to pay its creditors. If there is no swift solution, bond yields will rise and talk of Grexit will resurface. For Greece, if life becomes even more intolerable, there is one way out -- exit the EU or at least the Eurozone, if the EU would even consider that half measure. But, at the end of the day, all may lie with the decision soon to be made by the IMF -- and President Trump will in all probability be the deciding, behind the stage, vote. Germany may not like Donald Trump, but, as conservative nation-first parties are on the rise all over Europe, and Greece is increasingly the poster child for the damage a Germany-led EU can do to smaller non-German model economies, Angela Merkel and Wolfgang Schäuble would do themselves and their EU experiment a great favor by being more polite and accommodating to President Trump.