General Flynn and the Russian Ambassador -- Maybe It Is Simply a First Rate SpyTale, but It Could Represent a Paradigm Shift

President Trump on Monday named Army Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, a warrior-scholar who is an expert in counter insurgency, to be the director of the White House's National Security Council. Trump also announced that Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg will remain as the NSC’s chief of staff. McMaster, sitting with Trump and Kellogg in Trump's Mar a Lago home in Palm Beach, said : “I’m proud to continue my service to the nation.” Kellogg added : "I'm honored and privileged to serve alongside General McMaster. He's a great statesman." McMaster is currently director of the Army Capabilities Integration Center. He joined the Army in 1984 and distinguished himself seven years later during the Gulf War in what would become known as the Battle of 73 Easting. As captain of the prestigious 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment's Eagle Troop, McMaster led a force of just nine tanks that took out more than 80 Iraqi Republican Guard tanks and armored vehicles. He is also the author of the 1997 book, "Dereliction of Duty," which criticized the US government's handling of the Vietnam War. In his latest role, McMaster was tasked with gauging the US military capability against future threats. He warned Congress last April that years of military cuts have left the US vulnerable : “We are outranged and outgunned by many potential adversaries,” McMaster said. “[And] our army in the future risks being too small to secure the nation.” • • • BUT WHAT ABOUT GENERAL FLYNN? The 54-year-old McMaster -- extremely well-qualified, a remarkable military commander and strategist -- replaces retired Army Lieutenant General Michael Flynn as the President’s national security advisor after Flynn was forced to resign for allegedly lying about talking to Russia about the sanctions imposed by President Obama in December for what the US intel community said was Russian hacking of the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton senior aides. Flynn was a private citizen at the time of the alleged contacts with the Russian Ambassador to the US, Sergey Kislyak, about the sanctions because President-Elect Turmp had not been sworn in yet as President. • The New York Times made the disclosures that brought down General Flynn. A NYT February 14 article alleged that President Trump's campaign team and other associates had repeated dealings with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election, citing telephone records and intercepted calls disclosed to the Times by US officials -- who were and remain nameless "sources" because, as the NYT explained it : "All of the current and former officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because the continuing investigation is classified." According to the Times, the Trump team/Russia data were intercepted at about the same time that US intelligence officials were investigating Russian hacks into the Democratic National Committee and other party operatives last summer. The intel inquiry was then broadened to determine whether the Trump campaign was involved with the Russian hacking or other efforts to sway the election -- and officials told the NYT no evidence of such cooperation had been detected. • In addition, the NYT reported : "Officials would not disclose many details, including what was discussed on the calls, which Russian intelligence officials were on the calls, and how many of Mr. Trump's advisors were talking to the Russians. It is also unclear whether the conversations had anything to do with Mr. Trump himself." The Times named only one former Trump associate detected on the calls -- Paul Manafort, Trump's former campaign chairman, whose work as a political consultant in Ukraine is not news -- it was disclosed last summer. Manafort slammed the accusations as "absurd" Tuesday, telling the Times : "I have no idea what this is referring to. I have never knowingly spoken to Russian intelligence officers, and I have never been involved with anything to do with the Russian government, or the Putin administration, or any other issues under investigation today. It's not like these people wear badges that say, 'I'm a Russian intelligence officer.' " The officials declined to name any other Trump associates who might have been identified on the calls, according to the NYT. • The Times says that the National Security Agency initially captured the communications -- and the FBI asked the NSA to "collect as much information as possible about the Russian operatives on the phone calls, and to search through troves of previous intercepted communications that had not been analyzed." • BUT, the Times makes it clear that the data from wiretaps that were asked for by the FBI in the Trump team inquiry are not the data taken from the wiretapped conversations in December between General Flynn and Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak that reportedly detailed discussions about sanctions the Obama administration imposed on Russia earlier in December. • • • THE NYT STORY LACKS VERIFIABLE FACTS. The New York Times pointed an accusing finger at General Flynn based on wiretaps leaked from a non-related classified investigation -- such leaking is a criminal offense -- that was focused on alleged Russian hacking of Democratic campaign records AND that was expanded by the FBI to cover whether Trump's campaign team was involved in the Russian hacking AND that then collaterally found wiretappings of conversations between Flynn and Kislyak. NO EVIDENCE of Trump team involvement was uncovered. The intel community "leakers" remain unnamed by the NYT because of the classified nature of the investigation. The NYT used information from three of the four present and former officials interviewed for its story. Why did the NYT use information from only three of the four leakers for the article -- why not use the fourth leaker's information, too? The NYT does not explain -- is the fourth leaker dead or in disagreement with the version of the other three?? We do not know. Did anyone in the Trump team except Manafort, who denies the NYT allegation, talk to Russians? We do not know. President Trump and his Chief of Staff deny it and no evidence to prove otherwise has been revealed. What did General Flynn and Ambassador Kislyak discuss? Did Flynn decide on his own to contact Kislyak or, if he was directed, who directed Flynn to talk to Kislyak, and why. We do not know. • • • ENTER THE JERUSALEM POST. On Sunday, the Jerusalem Post published an interview with former Mossad chief Danny Yatom, as part of its effort to sort out the Flynn situation. Why? The JP begins the interview by saying that on Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that some US intelligence officials are withholding certain intel from Trump because of continued concerns it will be compromised or leaked. President Trump and his Chief of Staff Reince Priebus have both denied that the WSJ article was accurate, saying that President Trump is getting full intel briefings. • But, according to the JPost, in December and January, stories started to circulate in the media that Israel, the UK, Australia and others might be reconsidering whether they could fully openly share intelligence with the Trump administration when incoming US President Trump, Flynn and others seemed so close to Russia. Then, on Thursday the disputed Wall Street Journal article reported that some US intelligence officials are withholding certain intel from Trump because of continued concerns it will be compromised or leaked. • So, the JPost asked former Mossad head Yatom and other former Israeli and US intel officers whether there are concerns in the Israeli intel community that Israeli intelligence may have been compromised. The JPost says that when it talked to US and Israeli officials in January and early February, they dismissed the concerns. But Flynn's resignation on Tuesday -- for allegedly having spoken to Russian officials about removing sanctions before Trump entered office as well as for lying to Vice President Mike Pence about what he discussed with the Russian ambassador -- made the JPost talk to Yatom and others again, leading to the Sunday JPost article. • Key to the JPost interview with Yatom is the fact that Flynn's meetings with the Russian ambassador were, according to the JPost, sandwiched in close proximity "to his secret meetings with Mossad Director Yossi Cohen," raising a red flag for the JPost about "whether Israeli intelligence has or could be leaked to Moscow." Some former intelligence officials indicated that they could not be sure one way or another about the fate of any Israeli intelligence given to Flynn, with one official saying, “He was a US general, I hope he was not a traitor.” Another former official said that Israel has no choice about whether to share intelligence with the US, noting : “We also receive. We can’t say yes and then no” about Israel asking for the US to share information and then refusing to share or refusing to share in an equal manner. • It was then, according to the JPost, that former Mossad director Danny Yatom came out strongly, saying he knew Flynn personally and affirming that he would not have leaked Israeli intelligence information to Russia even if he may have violated certain US norms by discussing sanctions relief with Russia before Trump took office. Asked about the possibility of a leak, Yatom said, “I don’t think so, from my personal evaluation. Flynn was very experienced. No one thinks he was a Russian spy. He was experienced and smart enough. Maybe he made a mistake even with no intention, but that can happen to anyone. I don’t think we need to worry that our intelligence will go to Russia.” Yatom even speculated that Flynn may have even “been thrown under the bus,” seeming to agree with theories that Flynn’s discussion of sanctions with Russian officials may have been under orders from Trump, but that at this point he may have “fallen on his sword” to protect the US President from fallout. • In any case, Yatom told the JPost that Flynn’s dismissal should not have a huge impact on Israeli-US intelligence cooperation for a very important reason -- Yatom explained that Israeli information meant exclusively for the US goes directly to the CIA or the National Security Agency : “Only after it gets to the NSA does it get to the President. The CIA and NSA don’t need to tell the President and others at the White House who is the source of the intelligence they received -- they don’t need to know.” Yatom explained that if the US President does not know the source of the intelligence, then there is no danger to Israel’s sources and no danger to sharing the intelligence. • Yatom also described a second kind of intel that he labeled : “intelligence we intentionally want to give to Russia. We give them a paraphrase. We don’t give them the actual original material which would let them analyze potential sources of the material. We give intelligence to Russia, for example, to convince them that Iran is not standing by its obligations. Some of the facts we present to Russia directly and some through the US, but we do it in a smart way so they can’t figure out the source.” Overall, Yatom said he was most worried by reports that US intelligence officials did not trust Trump enough to give him the full picture. • • • ISRAEL AND SAUDI ARABIA VS IRAN. While former Mossad director Yatom was supporting General Flynn, the Jerusalem Post broke another story on Monday about an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman responding to anti-Iran comments made by Israeli and Saudi officials, claiming their shared stance comes as no surprise. The comments were made at the Munich Security Conference -- where Senator McCain attacked President Trump. Both Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and Saudi Arabia Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir addressed the Conference, and each said that Iran constitutes a threat to each of their countries, that Iran has not moderated its behavior in the wake of the 2015 nuclear deal and that it should face renewed economic pressure from the international community. The JPost reported that the Israeli and Saudi ministers stopped short of saying they would cooperate to thwart Iran, but Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi said that Jerusalem and Riyadh are already working "hand in glove" in the Middle East and their matching assessments given on Sunday came as no surprise. Iran rejected Israeli and Saudi claims that the Islamic Republic was a destabilizing force in the region, repeating that it is no surprise that Jerusalem and Riyadh share the same views. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif called out Israel's "audacity," saying Iran will never develop nuclear weapons. Iranian official news agency Press TV quoted Zarif spokesman Qassemi as saying : “The parallelism between the positions of the Saudi foreign minister and the Israeli war minister on Iran is not coincidental. Many instances of evidence indicate coordination between the two regimes in regional cases.” Qassemi said Liberman's and Jubeir's claims against Iran reflected their countries' "painful desperation. Both regimes think they should stir the international atmosphere against Iran as a means of making up for their multitudinous defeats and frustrations in the region." Qassemi said Israel's attempts to enlist a Moslem country in its efforts against Iran were "pathetic." • While Liberman called for an alliance with sunni states, Jubeir did not directly respond when asked if he envisions a coalition with Israel against Teheran. Jubeir, who spoke after Liberman, pointedly rejected a new Iranian call for a dialogue with sunni Arab Gulf states, telling the Conference that the Islamic Republic is trying to “upend the order” in the Middle East and seeks the destruction of Saudi Arabia : “The Iranians speak of wanting to turn a new page, wanting to look forward, not backward. This is great, but what about the present? We can’t ignore what they are doing in the region. We can’t ignore their constitution which calls for the export of the revolution. How can one deal with a nation whose intent is to destroy us?” Liberman also accused Iran of trying to undermine Saudi Arabia and termed Major-General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force [Quds Force is the foreign operation of the IRG], “the No.1 terrorist in the world. If you ask me, ‘What is the biggest news in the Middle East?’ I think that [for] the first time since 1948 the moderate Arab world, sunni world, understands that the biggest threat for them is not Israel, not Jews and not Zionism, but Iran and Iranian proxies,” Liberman said, pointing to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip and the Houthi militia in Yemen. • • • ON THE SAME DAY, RUSSIAN UN AMBASSADOR DIES. The media reaction was one of stunned disbelief when Russian officials announced that Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin died Monday in New York. His death was also announced inside the UN Trusteeship Council Chamber, where there was also stunned shock. Churkin died one day before his 65th birthday at the Russian Embassy on East 67th Street on Monday when he experienced a “cardiac condition,” the New York Post reported. He was rushed to New York Presbyterian Hospital at around 9:30 a.m. unconscious and in need of CPR. Churkin had been Russia's envoy at the United Nations since 2006 and was considered Moscow's great champion at the UN. He had a reputation for an acute wit and sharp repartee, especially with his American and Western counterparts. He was currently the longest-serving member of the Security Council, the UN's most powerful body. Among many other issues, he had recently raised Russia's views on the conflict in Syria, a close ally protected by Russia at the UNSC, sparring with diplomats from the US and other Western countries over whether to impose sanctions or take action to end the conflict in Syria. President Vladimir Putin was notified of the death, according to the state news agency TASS. Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said : "The President was grieved to learn about the death of Vitaly Churkin. The head of state highly estimated Churkin's professionalism and diplomatic talents." • • • ON THE SAME DAY, ISRAELI MINISTER SUPPORTS TRUMP PEACEMAKING. Israel Today quotes Israel Public Security Minister Gil’ad Erdan as saying on Monday said that with US President Donald Trump rewriting the rule of Mideast peacemaking, there was now a real chance for a genuine agreement between the Jewish state and its Arab neighbors. At his press conference with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, Trump said he was not married to the two-state solution, and would consider any reasonable proposal for peace, so long as Israel likes it. Speaking at a gathering of the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations in Jerusalem, Erdan said that attitude from an American President is a game-changer : "We have an opportunity to create, together with the administration, the conditions for serious peace negotiations, by changing the basic approach of the international community. I believe that peace is possible. Every time Israel had a real partner for peace, we were willing to take far-reaching steps. If we have a true partner for peace, and we have to check that we have a true partner, we can make a deal, as some like to say. You probably know who I’m talking about.” • • • DEAR READERS, here we have a lot of what could be seen as interacting information being released in a short timeframe by interested parties. There are connections among the parties -- they are all major players in the Middle East; they are all vital to making a Middle East peace happen; and they are all lined up either on the American side or the Russian side of the issue. Can we build a plausible scenario from these recent events? Here is one possibility. General Flynn was on a clandestine mission for President-Elect / President Trump to create change in "the basic approach of the international community" as Erdan called it -- a paradigm shift in the Middle East equation -- by bringing Russia over to the American side. He was talking to the Russian ambassador and to the Israeli Mossad intel director simultaneously as part of his mission. Israel was at the same time talking to Saudi Arabia to keep the Kingdom in the loop. The discussions were not about an Israel-Palestine peace deal but about a new Middle East alliance that would bring together the US, Israel, the sunni Arab states led by Saudi Arabia AND Russia. Its goal would be to isolate and de-fang Iran as the terrorist leader of Middle East unrest. Russia had apparently agreed in principle during the Flynn conversations because it saw its allegiance to Iran as leading only to a renewed isolation featuring sanctions and a greatly reduced voice in the international arena. Saudi Arabia, which for some time allegedly has been secretly cooperating with Israel on defense situations, saw the Russian acceptance of the paradigm shift as the opportunity to make the sunni Arab-Israel alliance quasi-official. Former Mossad director Yatom, in speaking to the Jerusalem Post, was delivering a re-enforcing coded message to Russia that it could rely on the Flynn conversations because they came with Trump approval, and that Russia could therefore ignore US media and intel leaks about Russian trickery, as well as its own direct 'fake' intel from Obama holdovers. Churkin was a weak link in the Russian chain because he came from the Soviet era and deeply distrusted the US and Israel. Thus, his sudden 'heart attack.' As for Flynn, the wiretap intercepts caught him in a spotlight he could not explain away easily without ruining the mission. So, he resigned to save the clandestine mission's goals and his boss President Trump, the leader in the effort to bring about the paradigm shift. • If this scenario is close to being correct -- something I have no way of knowing -- then we can expect an announcement after a respectable passage of time that Russia supports the Israel-sunni Arab de facto detente and will work with it to bring about peace in the Middle East. I feel sure we will never hear Russia condemn Iran, or Syria or Palestine for that matter, but its actions will speak volumes about the paradigm shift having occurred. • And, that dear readers, is the end of my John Le Carré SpyTale for the day.