Saturday Politics : Barack Obama Will Be Forever Haunted by the 'Dead of Syria'

Saturday Politics is too often about the horror that is Syria. ~~~~~~ As the situation in Aleppo deteriorates into total destruction of the city and its citizens, Russia on Wednesday tried to justify its deployment of advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems to Syria. In a tweet posted by the official Twitter account of the Russian embassy in Washington, @RusEmbUSA, where there were photos of White House spokesman Josh Earnest and an S-300 missile battery with the caption “...because you never really know what kind of assistance terrorists might get.” The tweet then attempted to explain the sick joke by adding : “All jokes aside, #Russia will take every defensive measure necessary to protect its personnel stationed in #Syria from terrorist threat.” -- Russian Embassy, USA (@RusEmbUSA) October 5, 2016. The Russian message reinforces previous warnings against United States' interference with a combined Russian/Syrian air campaign in Syria. The US says Russian and Syrian aircraft have targeted primarily opposition forces and civilian areas in Syria, especially in Aleppo, where several hospitals have been bombed and a UN aid convoy was hit on October 19, killing 20 people. The bombing campaign that began when a September 12 cease-fire brokered by the US and Russia collapsed is the worst Aleppo has as yet endured, and it marks an escalation by Russia and Syria's President Bashar al-Assad that humanitarian observers are labelling as 'war crimes.' The UN formally declared Aleppo under siege earlier this week. The US State Department has said the Obama administration is considering various options, including a military response. Secretary of State John Kerry has warned Russia that one result of its actions could be that “more Russian aircraft will be shot down.” Obama’s refusal to back up demands for a cease-fire with a threat of force has reportedly severely distressed Kerry, who has vented his frustration to some fellow diplomats -- his words were promptly leaked. Kerry now stands, as has been suspected for some time, in opposition to his own President’s policy. ~~~~~~ But, the Russian deployment of S-300 missiles to Syria -- timed to fit into the run-up to the US presidential election -- is no more likely to evoke a response form Obama than any of the past atrocities have. In fact, some see the Russian deployment as a warning to the next US President not to interfere in the Russian quasi-takeover of Syria. Both Trump's running mate, Governor Mike Pence of Indiana, and Hillary Clinton have expressed support for imposing a no-fly zone to protect civilians in Syria. Michael O'Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution, told USA TODAY that : "The Russian move might be more a message to Hillary and Trump, to make the battle space in Syria look too dangerous." The Russian S-300 missile system is a superior ambush weapon that adds a significant threat to US air operations in Syria, "unless American leaders are willing to accept a few losses," O'Hanlon said, explaining that "even if US aircraft use radar-jamming devices, the S-300, which works in a network connected by fiber-optic cables, can develop a picture of the battle space using the signal of US aircraft trying to jam enemy radar. It can easily shoot down a US fighter jet with virtually no warning. I’ve never heard an American military or intelligence official poo poo the S-300." According to Hanlon, the S-300 deployment would also change the kind of no fly zone that a future US President might impose -- preventing aircraft from flying in the presence of S-300 systems is likely to lead to a focus on destroying runways, fuel depots and aircraft on the ground, while avoiding Russian personnel. In the wrong hands, S-300 missiles could also threaten military and civilian air traffic in neighboring countries that are US allies. Here is we know about the Russian S-300 air defense missile system, according to Hanlon. Deployments in Iran began in September. While it’s not absolutely clear if an S-300 was involved, the missile can be fired from a BUK system, which is suspected in the downing of the Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 that crashed in eastern Ukraine in 2014, killing 298 passengers and crew. A recent Dutch report said the BUK system traveled from Russia before the shootdown, and later returned to Russia. The S-300 missile has a range of 250 miles, at Mach 7.5 (7.5 times the speed of sound). This means its deployment in Syria will enable it to reach neighboring states, including Turkey, which shot down a Russian fighter jet last year; Iraq, where the US is conducting air strikes against ISIS; Jordan, which also conducts air strikes in Iraq; and Israel, which has conducted several air strikes in Syria to prevent the transfer of “game changing” weapons to Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Shiite militia backed by Iran. Israel sees the S-300 as a “game changing” weapon and therefore a legitimate target, and has vowed to do what it must to preserve its freedom to operate over Syria and Lebanon. Whether Israel would conduct a strike that could harm Russian operators or advisors is a question. ~~~~~~ Images of the suffering in Aleppo has renewed calls for a tougher American policy in Syria from conservatives. At the vice-presidential debate on Tuesday, both Democrat Senator Tim Kaine and Republican Governor Mike Pence advocated more aggressive American action. But, many say it is too late for the US to plunge deeper into the Syrian conflict because it could risk a major war with Russia and Iran, or make the US look weak if it fails to fully commit to confronting Russia and al-Assad and is then forced to back down. This points to a more modest US goal of reducing harm, saving lives and keeping prospects open for a political solution. Cease-fire talks between the United States and Russia, although often merely diplomatic theatre, may yet achieve this -- if President Obama can find the courage to come out of his hiding place and be the leader the world needs to address the humanitarian crisis that grows daily in Syria. Russia denies that it sees al-Assad’s survival crucial to protecting its interests in Syria, which are combating jihadism, preserving intelligence and military assets, and asserting that Russia is a geopolitical player in the Middle East. But, Russia has consistently protected al-Assad militarily and at the UN Security Council. With Russia's President Putin as his godfather, al-Assad has felt free to continue using toxic chlorine gas and barrel bombs on Syrian civilians and to forbid the supply of humanitarian aid in the form of food, water and medicine to civilians trapped inside the war-torn country. Russia seems to be as trapped by its support for Bashar al-Assad as America is by its timid President Obama. Consider that Russia seemed ready to consider political compromise when it provisionally withdrew from Syria in March, but al- Assad refused to give peace talks a serious chance, so Russia fell back in line with al-Assad’s brutality toward his own citizens. ~~~~~~ General David Petraeus has outlined a US strategy : create a no-fly zone either in the air or electronically and establish safe areas in northern Syria in Kurdish-controlled areas so that Syrian civilians are rescued from their daily hell. But, President Obama’s weakness, his apparent heartlessness in the face of a humanitarian disaster he is largely responsible for creating, and his inability to think strategically makes even these steps unlikely. If there is a US Syria policy, it is due in great part to Secretary of State Kerry's incessant efforts to engage Russian Foreign Secretary Lavrov in diminishing ISIS through an air campaign and American-supported Syrian rebel forces, coordinating with Russia to the extent possible to provide humanitarian support, and continuing to press for a sustainable cease-fire and a negotiated political transition involving al-Assad’s eventual departure. As long as Obama is President, this seems to be the only possible course of action. And, all this said, it is clear that al-Assad and Russia have manipulated each cease-fire to prepare for continuing offensives. The sad fact is that Kerry and Lavrov will continue to talk, but they will not produce a durable cease-fire or seriously re-engage in settlement talks. ~~~~~~ In perhaps the only response permitted by President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry on Friday called for a war crimes investigation of Russia and Syria for attacks in Aleppo, Syria. Kerry said Syrian forces killed 20 and wounded 100 when they struck a hospital Thursday night. Speaking at the welcome ceremony in Washington for the French foreign minister, Kerry said : "Russia and the regime owe the world more than an explanation about why they keep hitting hospitals, medical facilities and children and women." Kerry added that Russian and al-Assad forces' attacks on hospitals and deaths of women and children are “way beyond” accidental : "This is a targeted strategy to terrorize civilians and to kill anybody and everybody who is in the way of their military objectives." Kerry also said he looked forward to a "frank conversation" with French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault on "what the potential next steps are" to deal with the siege of Aleppo, where more than 250,000 civilians may be trapped : "We intend to jointly figure out how best to be able to deliver the strongest message possible about the actions that might be taken to deal with this bombing of Aleppo, the siege in -- in the 21st century, this entire siege of innocent people." ~~~~~~ Dear readers, the New York Times’ David Sanger recently wrote about Vladimir Putin’s "bizarre foreign policy." Russia, Sanger wrote, is a “declining economy with the gross domestic product of Italy.” So, Sanger asked : "How come it manages to push around the United States, which has the world’s biggest economy and, as President Obama put it just last week, 'by a mile, the greatest military on earth'? Because the United States has, by a mile, a President who is cautious to the point of timidity and prudent to the point of appearing heartless." Those are damning words coming from the New York Times. Stephen O’Brien, the UN Undersecretary for Humanitarian Affairs, called the renewed bombing of Aleppo an : “indiscriminate bombing and shelling at a level of savagery that no human should have to endure.” Again damning coming from the organization that Obama touts as the future leader of a global government. Yet, the comments are truthful. Al-Assad forces, helped by Hezbollah and Iran on the ground and by Russia in the air, are poised to demolish Aleppo although 250,000 civilians will perish with it. Late last month, when the UN humanitarian convoy was bombed by Syrians and Russians (or Syrians with the aid of Russia), the US 'retaliated' against this hideous outrage by protesting and suspending talks with Moscow. Obama must be feeling the weight of the failure caused by his timidity because he is resorting to hallucinatory defenses of his position regarding Syria that has led to 500,000 deaths, 8 million internally displaced persons and a tidal wave of immigrants that has destabilized Europe. President Obama recently asked at a CNN military town hall meeting held at Fort Lee, Virginia : “Is this a situation in which inserting large numbers of US troops will get us a better outcome?” He inferred that the answer is 'No.' But, the inherent error in Obama's defensive question is that nobody has ever suggested inserting large numbers of US ground troops into Syria. Sanger noted in his article : "Obama’s national security team once recommended supplying and training the rebels who Obama originally dismissed as 'former farmers or teachers or pharmacists who are now taking up opposition against a battle-hardened regime.' Obama listened to his CIA director, his secretary of state, his secretary of defense and the military brass and said no. End of discussion. Boots on the ground were not recommended." At Fort Lee, President Obama said : “There have been critics of mine that have suggested that, well, if early enough, you had provided sufficient support to a moderate opposition, they might have been able to overthrow the murderous Assad regime. The problem with that is, as we’ve seen, that the Assad regime is supported by Russia, it’s supported by Iran.” AND, that is always the exact problem with Obama. He delays acting until his delay makes it impossible to act. The Syrian regime has always been supported by Iran and Russia. But, Iran's proxy Hezbollah and Russia entered the fight in Syria after Obama's timidity had prepared the ground for them. When the Syrian civil war started in 2011, Obama could have done something and implied that he would, declaring : “The time has come for President Assad to step aside.” Al-Assad called Obama's bluff, refused too step aside, and erased Obama’s famous 'red line' by using poison gas on civilians. It is suspected that Obama fired senior US military officers who refused to acquiesce in his timidity and its consequences. By 2013, al-Assad, Putin and other assorted terrorists had fully assessed Barack Obama -- and they found him weak. Obama will be hounded by history, not for his domestic revival of racism or his refusal to deal with Congress or his laughably wrong-headed Obamacare. Barack Obama will be haunted by the 'Dead of Syria' and by the destruction of the Middle East as it existed in 2008 when he came to power. That is President Obama's true legacy.