Russia vs the West : New Tensions in Syria and Eastern Europe

A serious event was reported Tuesday -- a US destroyer off the coast of Yemen in the Red Sea was targeted by two missiles fired from territory controlled by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Pentagon spokesman Navy Captain Jeff Davis said at approximately 7 p.m. on Sunday, the USS Mason detected two inbound missiles over a 60-minute period, with both missiles hitting the water. Davis said : "We assess the missiles were launched from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen." An unnamed defense official told Reuters the USS Mason employed "defensive measures" in the first instance, but it is not clear whether it caused the incoming missile to hit the water, or whether it would have done so anyway. The official would not name the defensive system used "for security reasons," but he said the USS Mason was operating in international waters, meaning at least 12 nautical miles offshore, and was in the southern end of the Red Sea, near Yemen, but north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The official did not want to clarify how close the missiles got to the ship, also for operational security reasons : "The incident is under investigation, and we hope to have more details for you in the coming days. We take this very seriously. We will protect our people." The US is participating in a Saudi-led Arab coalition backing the government of Yemen against Iran-backed Houthi rebels, by providing intelligence and logistical support since the offensive began in March 2015. ~~~~~~ We reported in Monday's blog on Estonian reports that the Russian military was sending Iskander-M missiles to Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea. Kaliningrad is home to the Russian Baltic Fleet and is the country's only ice-free European port. The BBC has now confirmed the arrival in Kaliningrad of the Iskander-M system. Called SS-26 by NATO, the system has a range of 440 miles and can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads. An Iskander-M based in Kaliningrad can strike targets in Poland, across the whole Baltic region, and could even strike Berlin. Activating the primarily offensive Iskander-M unit in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland, is seen as seriously destabilizing by NATO’s entire eastern Europe flank, which, despite security promises by the White House, remains vulnerable to Russian attack. For Warsaw and several other NATO capitals, the move resembles a Baltic version of the Cuban Missile Crisis, constituting a direct challenge to Washington by Moscow -- and by Vladimir Putin to Barack Obama, personally. Poland said the development was of the "highest concern," and it is monitoring the situation. Russia's defense ministry said the new deployment was part of military exercises and has happened before, calling the deployment "not exceptional." US and NATO disagreements with Russia have intensified recently, particularly over Syria and Ukraine. Russia's annexation of Crimea and its support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad continue to jostle relations with Western powers. Finland, Sweden, Estonia and Latvia are among nations reporting recent air-space violations by Russia's military. ~~~~~~ In related news, the European Union, outraged by Russia's intensified air strikes on rebels in Syria, is now less likely to ease sanctions on Moscow over Ukraine, diplomats say, and some in the EU are raising the prospect of more sanctions against the Kremlin. The EU insists that the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine must be dealt with separately, but the latest military offensive by al-Assad and Russia on rebel-held eastern Aleppo has seriously strained ties between Russia and the EU. This weakens the hand of Hungary Greece, Cyprus, Slovakia, led by Italy's prime minister Matteo Renzi -- all of whose economies have been badly hit by the sanctions against Russia -- who are mounting pressure on the EU to ease sanctions, returning to doing business and re-engaging with Moscow after applying punitive sanctions for Russia's annexation of Crimea in March, 2014. EU and NATO officials said Monday the Ukraine sanctions on Russia should be kept in place. One EU foreign minister said : "It's clear that the assault on Aleppo has changed the mindset of some. It will be impossible to back an easing of sanctions on Ukraine in the current context." A French diplomatic source agreed, saying: "The prospect of the Russian sanctions over Ukraine being lifted are practically nil after Aleppo." France says the Aleppo attacks amount to war crimes and wants Syria and Russia investigated. EU leaders will discuss their ties with Russia on October 20-21 in Brussels. The EU's main economic sanctions against Russia over Ukraine are now in place until the end of January. The sanctions include restrictions on Russia's access to international financing, curbs on defense and energy cooperation with Moscow, a blacklist of people and entities, and limitations on doing business with Russian-annexed Crimea. Russian President Putin was due to meet with leaders of the EU and Ukraine on October 19 for more talks, but his trip to Paris has been cancelled because of last week's Russian veto of a French-drafted UN Security Council resolution demanding an immediate end to air strikes and military flights over Aleppo (see below). Diplomats say France is leading discussions about imposing new sanctions on Russia over Syria. But Germany opposes new Russian sanctions and diplomats in Brussels cast doubt on chances for any swift decision. ~~~~~~ And, while the EU is debating how to handle Russia and its agressive President, Vladimir Putin, over Ukraine and Syria, Russian jets resumed heavy bombing of rebel-held eastern Aleppo. Zakaria Malhifji of the Aleppo-based Fastaqim rebel group told Reuters, describing the renewed bombardment as heavy. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least eight people were killed. Moscow and Damascus reduced Aleppo air raids last week, according to the Syrian army, partly to allow civilians to leave opposition-held eastern neighborhoods, saying rebels in Aleppo could leave with their families if they lay down their arms. Insurgents have refused, calling the offer a trick. Al-Assad seeks the complete capitulation of divided Aleppo, Syria's biggest city before the civil war. Al-Assad ally Russia has built up its forces in Syria after a brief ceasefire collapsed last month, increasing Russia's ability to help the government gain the upper hand against rebels on many frontlines, including Aleppo where the opposition-held sector has been completely encircled for weeks. ~~~~~~ Russia announced last week that it is moving an S-300 anti-aircraft missile unit into Syria. S-300 deployments in Iran began in September. Experts say the presence of an S-300 unit means that, despite US aircraft radar-jamming devices, the S-300 can develop a picture of the battle space using the signal of US aircraft trying to jam enemy radar. Thus, it can easily shoot down a US fighter jet with virtually no warning. Experts also say the S-300 deployment could change the kind of no-fly zone a US President might impose -- likely leading to a focus on destroying runways, fuel depots and aircraft on the ground, while avoiding Russian personnel. In the wrong hands, S-300 missiles could also threaten military and civilian air traffic in neighboring US ally nations. A Russian S-300 air defense missile system fired from a truckbed BUK system, according to a recent report by the Netherlands, was involved in the downing of the Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 that crashed in eastern Ukraine in 2014, killing 298 passengers and crew. The Dutch report said the BUK system traveled from Russia before the shootdown, and later returned to Russia. The S-300 missile has a range of 250 miles, at Mach 7.5 (7.5 times the speed of sound), so its deployment in Syria will enable it to reach Turkey, which shot down a Russian fighter jet last year; Iraq, where the US carries out air strikes against ISIS; Jordan, which also conducts air strikes in Iraq; and Israel, which has made several air strikes in Syria to prevent the transfer of “game changing” weapons to Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based shiite militia backed by Iran. Israel sees the S-300 as a “game changing” weapon and thus a legitimate target, and has vowed to do what it must to preserve its freedom to operate over Syria and Lebanon, but whether Israel would conduct a strike that could harm Russian operators or advisors is a question. ~~~~~~ In early October, Russia said US "direct aggression" in Syria would mean 'tectonic shifts.' RIA news agency reported, citing Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, that "direct aggression" by the United States toward the Syrian government and armed forces would lead to "frightening, tectonic shifts" in the Middle East. And last Sunday, Russia warned that it can protect its Syria assets if US carpet bombs -- in a reference to analyst suppositions that with the S-300 missile unit in place in Syria, the United States may turn to bombing airfields and other al-Assad ground assets. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Sunday that Russia has the means to protect its assets in Syria if the United States decides to carpet bomb the Syrian government's military airfields. Lavrov said he had heard that this was one option being advocated by some policy makers in Washington. Reuters reported that Lavrov told Russia state TV's First Channel : "This is a very dangerous game given that Russia, being in Syria at the invitation of the legitimate government of this country and having two bases there, has got air defense systems there to protect its assets." Lavrov, in the same interview, said he was convinced that US President Obama would not agree to such a scenario. ~~~~~~ And, President Putin has cancelled a planned visit to France after Paris shortened the program for the trip, eliminating the opening of a Russian cultural and religious center and exhibitions. This seems to have been triggered by Moscow’s veto of a French UN Security Council draft resolution on Syria. Putin was expected to arrive in Paris next week, but the visit has now been postponed, the Kremlin confirmed, while not commenting on why France chose to change the program of Putin’s visit, but saying “this question should be addressed to the French side.” French President Francois Hollande said on Tuesday he was prepared to meet Putin “at any moment” to discuss Syria : "I consider it is necessary to have dialogue with Russia, but it must be firm and frank otherwise it has no place and it is a charade. I'm ready to meet President Putin if we can make progress on peace." Russia's position is that the UN resolution would protect terrorist group Al-Nusra Front, which controls a greater portion of eastern Aleppo, under a pretext of humanitarian relief. An alternative proposal by Russia, which would seek a deal with Al-Nusra to grant them safe passage out of the city and spare its civilian population, was rejected by other members of the UN Security Council. In addition, French officials have accused Russia and the al-Assad regime of committing war crimes in Syria and threaten to ask the International Criminal Court to probe the allegations. It is not clear how Paris wants to deliver on the threat, because the ICC has no jurisdiction over Syria. ~~~~~~ On Wednesday afternoon, BBC reported that UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has said Russia is risking becoming an international "pariah" following its bomb attacks in Syria. He told MPs he would "like to pursue" those responsible for attacks on hospitals and a humanitarian convoy as war criminals. Ending a three-hour debate in Parliament on Syria, Johnson, in his first Commons speech since becoming foreign secretary, condemned "deliberate attacks on humanitarian convoys." He told MPs he would "like to see" demonstrations against Russia's actions take place outside the country's London embassy. Johnson added: "I'm personally very attracted to the idea of getting these people to come before the International Criminal Court. That's certainly something I would like to pursue." Earlier, Andrew Mitchell, a former international development secretary, opened the debate by accusing Russia of helping a "barbaric bombardment" of Aleppo. He said : "The Kremlin, like any bully, is winning credibility if no-one stands up to them. What Russia is doing to the United Nations is precisely what Italy and Germany did to the League of Nations in the 1930s. And they are doing to Aleppo precisely what the Nazis did to Guernica in the Spanish Civil War." [In 1937, the Spanish fascist dictator Francisco Franco allowed the ancient Basque capital of Guernica -- which had held out against the advances made by his army since the beginning of the civil war the previous year -- to be bombed by Germany's air force. This is regarded as the first deliberate aerial bombing of a city in history. More than 1,600 people died, but Franco denied the raid had taken place. The events provoked international outrage and inspired the anti-war painting Guernica by Pablo Picasso.] ~~~~~~ Dear readers, the tension over Syria, evidenced by increasingly loud rhetoric against Russia coming from the West, especially Europe, shows that the unresolved dispute over war-ravaged Syria’s future could drive a generational wedge between Moscow and Western powers. Some French politicians have attacked Hollande for his reluctance to meet with Putin, calling the the Syrian conflict one between Russia and the West, not just France. One theory is that the cancellation of Putin’s visit may have been the goal of France's submission of the draft UN resolution, which Russia was always expected to veto. Freelance journalist Robert Harneis told Kremlin-supported RT : “Why should it be France? It could have been Britain. After all, Britain and France compete with each other to run after the Americans all the time. So one wonders whether it was deliberate to make it impossible for this meeting to take place." Harneis believes France acted on a cue from Washington, but Putin’s not coming to Paris may actually benefit President Hollande during the upcoming election in France, because Putin might have touched upon France’s own misdeeds, like the overstepping of a UN mandate to enforce a no-fly zone in Libya, which was used to destroy Muammar Qaddafi’s army, and carried out primarily by France and Britain, according to Harneis. ~~ But, if that seems like a piece of diplomatic indirection, consider this. The blacklisted Russian state TV host Dmitry Kiselyov, who has a reputation for attacking the West and is called the "Kremlin's chief propagandist," warned America in Tuesday night's edition of his show News of the Week that "impudent behavior" towards Russia may have "nuclear" consequences. He said : "A Russian takes a long time to harness a horse, but then rides fast." By "riding fast", Kiselyov was referring to the recent Russian military deployments mentioned above, in addition to Moscow's recent deployment of three warships from the Black Sea Fleet to the Mediterranean, all carrying cruise missiles that can be armed with nuclear warheads; its announcement that it will send several hundred paratroopers to Egypt for military exercises; and, its suspension of three nuclear agreements with the US. Kiselyov said that in recent days there had been a "radical change" in the US-Russian relationship. Moscow is taking action, he said, because of "the loud talk in Washington of a 'Plan B' for Syria, and everyone understands what this plan means : direct military force in Syria against President Assad's forces and the Russian military." (The US State Department said last week it is continuing internal deliberations about "non-diplomatic" options regarding the war in Syria.) In a News of the Week interview, a Russian defense ministry spokesman warned American bombers not to target the Syrian army. Kiselyov put it more bluntly : "We'll shoot them down." Is this more of Putin's bullying? Bluffing? Or is there a real danger of a direct military confrontation between Russia and the US? Izvestia said last week : "There is a reason that Russia has deployed S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to Syria. Moscow is ready to use them. This won't spark a world war. After all, we've shot down American planes before, in Vietnam and Korea [in Soviet times]. Vladimir Putin is making it clear that Russia will make no more concessions [in Syria]." And Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of the journal, Russia in Global Affairs, warned that "this is the most dangerous situation since the Cold War : "In the Cold War, confrontation was based on understanding of 'red lines.' Today this is not the case. Most likely no-one wants to launch a big collision between Russia and the United States. But this is exactly the case when unintended consequences might emerge." To some in Moscow, Russia is merely reacting to Western aggression. Retired Lieutenant General Yevgeny Buzhinsky said : "There is a campaign to hit Russia everywhere possible." He cited Western sanctions against Moscow and even the banning of Russia's Paralympic team over doping allegations. According to Buzhinsky : "Of course there is a reaction. As far as Russia sees it, as Putin sees it, it is full-scale confrontation on all fronts. If you want a confrontation, you'll get one. But it won't be a confrontation that doesn't harm the interests of the United States. You want a confrontation, you'll get one everywhere." President Barack Obama's footprint is all over this unnecessary escalation of ill will between Russia and the West. Donald Trump's willingness to talk to Putin, to see where common ground might be, without displaying US weakness, or Hillary Clinton's seeming agression for the sake of agression -- the choice between their positions looms large in the US presidential race, if only the candidates and voters would focus on them.