Friday, March 7, 2014
Will It Be an Old-fashioned Soviet-style Referendum Victory in Crimea
Mother Russia has been swept up in patriotic fervor over bringing Crimea back into the fold. Thousands of people massed in Red Square on Friday waving flags and chanting "Crimea is Russia!" while the leader of Russia's upper house of parliament, Valentina Matvienko, promised the peninsula would be welcomed as an "equal subject" of Russia.She emphasized the grievances of Russian-speaking residents in eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, which has been the Russian government's justification for possible intervention in Crimea. The crowd in Red Square, estimated at 65,000 people, participated in a Kremlin-organized rally to support Crimea. "We knew Moscow would not to forget us," the Crimea parliamentary leader Vladimir Konstantinov shouted from a platform. "Russia will not leave other Russia-leaning peoples in the Ukraine at the mercy of those Nazi bandits," he continued, referring to the new Kiev government. Matvienko said Russia welcomed the expedited referendum date in Crimea, which was originally scheduled to coincide with nationwide Ukrainian elections on May 25, dismissing that vote by saying there are "no conditions for honest, equal, transparent and open elections" in Ukraine. The Russian parliament has been rushing through legislation to make it easier for Crimea to join Russia. According to current constitutional law, Russia can only annex territory by an agreement "initiated... by the given foreign government." Because Crimea is still legally Ukrainian territory, that would require signing an agreement with the new authorities in Kiev. The new legislation would sidestep that, according to members of parliament, who said a new bill could be passed as soon as next week.
~~~~~ Since Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovich, fled to Russia during the Maidan protest movement, Russia has refused to recognize the new Ukrainian government and has taken action to reinforce its control of its major Black Sea naval base in Crimea. Crimea's local parliament called the March 16 referendum to decide if the semi-autonomous region should join Russia or remain part of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters during a Tuesday news conference that Russia had no intention of annexing Crimea, but he insisted that residents had the right to determine the region's status, including possible independence, by popular vote. The possibility to vote for independence has since been removed from the referendum and it will be an up-and-down Ukraine-or-Russia ballot. The referendum will be conducted in the presence of what Crimean leaders estimate to be more than 11,000 pro-Russian troops, who control all land and sea accesses to the peninsula and have blockaded all Ukrainian military bases that haven't yet surrendered. While Russia denies that its forces are active in Crimea, describing the troops in green uniforms without insignia as local "self-defense forces," many of the troops, who are armed with advanced heavy weaponry, move in transport vehicles with Russian license plates. ~~~~~ Meanwhile events continue to swirl around the diplomatic standoff over Ukraine between the West and Russia. In an effort to pressure Russia to roll back its military presence on Crimea, the United States imposed financial sanctions and travel bans on Russians and other opponents of Ukraine's new central government on Thursday. The European Union announced that it was suspending talks with President Putin's government on a comprehensive economic agreement and on granting Russian citizens visa-free travel within the 28-nation bloc - a long-standing Russian objective. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned US Secretary of State John Kerry that sanctions over Russian actions in Crimea could backfire. The Foreign Ministry released a summary of a telephone conversation in which Lavrov urged the US not to take "hasty, poorly thought-out steps that could harm Russian-US relations, especially concerning sanctions, which would unavoidably boomerang on the US itself," the statement said. In another area, the Ukraine $1.89 billion bill for Russian natural gas looms large. If Gazprom Ukraine doesn't pay off its debt, "there is a risk of returning to the situation of the beginning of 2009" when Russia cut off supplies to Europe because of a pricing dispute with Ukraine," according to the president of Russia Gazprom. However, the new government, which is struggling with near-bankruptcy and a failing economy, got encouraging news Friday from the International Monetary Fund, which said that economic assistance was on the way. ~~~~~ Dear readers, Crimea now effectively belongs to Russia. Even if the March 16 Crimea referendum should produce a vote in favor of remaining part of Ukraine, it will do nothing to loosen the military grip Russia has on its "Crown Jewel." For Putin, Crimea is a pure gold acquisition. It will go a long way to cementing Putin's authority with ordinary Russians, who still resent the loss of the sprawling empire Moscow ruled in the Soviet era. But, while 60% of Crimeans are Russian speakers with cultural and family ties to Russia, it is not a certainty that Putin will win his referendum poker hand. Today, in the Crimean capital, Simferopol, 75 people turned out for a rally at the local monument to 19th-century Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko. They spoke both Ukrainian and Russian, but waved Ukrainian flags and released white doves into the rainy sky. One man present at the rally was Russian speaker Anton Romanov, who said he opposes the occupation of Crimea by Russian troops. "I'm against being forced to live in a different country," he said. Mr. Putin will not sleep soundly until he has the results of the referendun in his pocket. Perhaps he intends to help the vote lean toward Russia. That may be the reason CNN and other world and local media groups, as well as an observation group from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, are being harassed in Crimea by those unmarked forces - so that an old-fashioned Soviet-style election can insure Crimea's political return to Mother Russia.
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Crimea is now part of Russia once again. Russia wanted the warm water, deep sea ports under its (Russia) total control - DONE.
ReplyDeleteIn this utterly unexplainable move by Russia against Crimea and the Ukraine there are presently many more questions than there are answers on the table. What is the stopping point for Russia in this land grab move? If this is a march east to rekindle the Russia of old their lack of outright military presence and muscle is dubious.
The EU and United States have spoken a lot of words here and have not really moved to physically block Russian advancement. The only thing that is keeping the Ukraine from being a viable part of Russia is the Russian reluctance.
One can think of a few possible ways to change Vladimir Putin’s mind on the occupation of Ukraine. He may listen to public opinion: 73 percent of Russians, even according to the state-run VTsIOM polling agency, oppose intervention in Ukraine. He may be persuaded by Russian opposition leaders, who condemned the war as “madness of a deranged KGB officer” and a “reckless policy” that “goes against the interests of our country.” He may be swayed by Western moves to suspend military cooperation and threats by Western leaders to boycott the G8 summit in Sochi.
ReplyDeleteIt is unlikely; however, that it will be any of the above. As a strongman whose power does not depend on democratic elections, Putin never really cared about what Russian voters think. For the same reason, he does not need to answer his opponents—the latter find themselves in prison much more often than on Russian television. Meanwhile, symbolic Western gestures—such as boycotting the G8—can be a nuisance for the Kremlin, but would never compel it to change course on a major issue.
The messages that the Kremlin will not understands are appeals to reason and references to international law which will always fall on deaf ears in Russia. Putin’s cronies will only pay attention when their own interests are at stake, and when they realize that they will face personal consequences in the form of losing their Western visas and bank accounts.
Bottom line is with much of Europe relying on inexpensive Russian energy imports and benefiting from trade with Moscow, the Kremlin (Putin) calculates that its opponents in the West will not have the stomach for a serious falling-out over Russian muscle-flexing.
ReplyDeleteThis complexity playing out right now over Ukraine and Crimea may be a testing by Putin of the EU to stand up and risk an interruption of the voluntarily inexpensive gas and oil that flow to EU countries thru the Ukraine – priced as it is to benefit Russia and not Europe. At any moment the price and availability of the oil & gas could skyrocket again at the impulse of Putin.
As with the United States, if Europe has any developable oil and/or gas reserves they need to develop them – even at the risk of the immaculate country side. Oil, natural gas, and various other by-products are a “chip” that allows regions like the EU and the United States sit at the worlds political tables.
The complexity of Putin is much greater than the complexity of the Ukraine status quo.
It should be obvious, given the nature of the politics of Ukraine and its location, that the U.S. has no business (or vital interests) in Ukraine or Crimea. Moving F-16s to Poland and applying sanctions are relatively mild measures, as such matters go. Yet placed in the context of a relentless push by the U.S. to contain Russia over the past 25 years or so, they are dangerous. Much is to be lost should the bear rise up. Little is to be gained and much to be lost by poking and prodding the bear to wake up.
ReplyDeleteThe ineptitude of the present-day U.S. government foreign policy is enormous. It shows up in its huge stupidity. It blunders into one place after another in this wide world. For recent examples, think Vietnam, Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Pakistan, and Syria. Whatever its goals are, it fails time and again to understand the history, politics, peoples, religions, geography, divisions or anything else significant about the lands it invades. The U.S. thinks it can create states. It thinks it can create states that mirror the American state. Who is Obama to pronounce a verdict about Crimea from on high? There is no evidence that he or the State Department understand what is involved or care about the peoples involved.
The U.S. government’s officials may have studied political science, but they don’t understand it well enough to apply the existing body of knowledge of that discipline with good results. Listening to the tape of the Nuland conversation and the tape of the Paet-Ashton conversation, it becomes crystal clear that they are utterly clueless about midwifing a state. They talk in terms of this person or that person or gluing this thing together or bringing in the IMF or some person from civil society as health minister. They simply have no idea what is actually involved.
The Obama Administration approaches foreign affairs as … “I’m pertinent in foreign affairs – I have a passport.” Take a close look at the qualifications and trustworthiness of Kerry and Clinton to make and carry out foreign policy. They have both demonstrated their inability to control their own marriages and in Kerry’s behalf his military experience. Kerry is playing politics against an expert – something he can’t be reasoned to be.
Even the most benign involvements can cause us to be hated and attacked.
ReplyDeleteSitting on the sidelines is not my favorite place to watch the events of history being implemented. But the events in the Ukraine right now today are so full of potholes that we could quickly find ourselves embroiled in a very bad situation.
ReplyDeleteObama is bound to jump in here and will if his history is repeatable , it will be the wrong side.
What the United States is trying to accomplish with its show of strength for NATO actually has a specific name … STRATEGIC REASSURANCE.
ReplyDeleteIt is the least reactive stance that Obama can take right now. But it does suite his foreign policy (if he has a policy) of Promise Everything, Deliver Nothing, Blame Someone Else.
No one wants to escalate this situation, no one sees a military solution to what’s happening in Ukraine, but we do want to reaffirm to our Eastern European allies that NATO is going to be there for them if force is needed at some point..