Sunday's Crimea Referendum May Offer Russia and the West a Solution

This coming weekend, Crimeans will vote on their future. Voters in Crimea will be given two options : becoming part of Russia, or remaining in Ukraine with broader powers. Crimea's parliament said Tuesday that if voters approve the move it would first declare itself an independent state, a maneuver that could de-escalate the confrontation between Moscow and the West and give Moscow the option of later deciding there is no need for Crimea to become part of Russia while keeping it firmly within its sphere of influence. Russian forces have secured control over the peninsula, but Ukraine and Western nations have denounced the referendum as illegitimate and warned Russia against trying to annex Crimea. Those who support splitting off from Ukraine say rejoining Russia would return the Black Sea peninsula to its rightful home. Billboards around the regional capital proclaimed "Together with Russia" above a map of Ukraine with a Nazi symbol painted over it. Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright told CNN's Christiane Amanpour Tuesday that the billboards are part of a large Russian propaganda campaign to encourage Crimeans to vote to join Russia. But if Crimea votes to be Russian and Crimea puts that vote on hold, it will give Russian President Vladimir Putin time to reach a deal with the West, including an agreement covering the Crimea port of Sevastopol, Russia's Black Sea Fleet base. Kiev-based political analyst Vadim Karasyov said the Crimean parliament's move is "a message to the West that there is no talk about Russia incorporating Crimea. It's a tranquilizer for everybody - for the West and for many in Ukraine who are panicking." Karasyov speculated that Crimea could exist as a "quasi-legitimate" state, while Russia and the West negotiate. Russia's Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the Crimean parliament's action was legitimate. "Russia will respect the results of Crimea's referendum" that will be monitored by observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the ministry said. US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke by telephone Tuesday at Washington's initiative. Lavrov issued a statement saying : "From the Russian side, the necessity was underlined of taking into complete account the interests of all Ukrainians and all regions in the search for an exit from the crisis and also the respect of the right of the residents of Crimea to determine their fate on their own in accordance with the norms of international law." Kerry "conveyed that, as we often do, there is an off-ramp here," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said, adding that while Washington respects Russia's interests, they "in no way justify military intervention or the use of force." ~~~~~ In Russia, Sergei Zheleznyak, a deputy speaker of the lower house of the Russian parliament, rejected proposals to draft new legislation to facilitate Crimea's accession into Russia. Whether this was an effort to relax tensions or part of legal maneuvering over the annexation plans is not clear. But, in another sign that some members of Putin's entourage would prefer a negotiated solution to an all-out confrontation with the West, Konstantin Remchukov, the well-connected publisher and editor of the daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta, spoke forcefully against annexing Crimea. Remchukov, who avoids criticizing Putin in public, recently said on Ekho Moskvy radio that annexation would trigger painful Western sanctions and cripple the Russian economy. Remchukov said he believes Russia could negotiate a deal that would have the West guarantee the rights of Russian-speakers and ensure its Black Sea Fleet's continuing presence in Crimea. Russia could promise concessions on the Syrian and Iranian crises in response to the Western willingness to respect Russian interests in Ukraine, Remchukov suggested. ~~~~~ Meanwhile, in a less conciliatory mood, Ukraine's acting president Yatsenyuk called for the formation of a national guard and for the mobilization of reserves and volunteers into the country's armed forces, while acting Ukrainian Defense Minister Ihor Tenyukh admitted that Ukrainian armed forces and equipment are significantly outnumbered by the Russian army and exhorted wealthy Ukrainians to donate money to equip the Ukraine army. He said Russia has 220,000 troops, 800 tanks, 400 helicopters, 150 planes and 60 ships deployed in Crimea and in military exercises near Ukrainian borders, "several times" more than the Ukrainian army's numbers. Yatsenyuk, who will fly to Washington to meet President Obama on Wednesday, called on the West to defend Ukraine against a nation "that is armed to the teeth and that has nuclear weapons." Yatsenyuk asked Russia, the US and Britain to abide by a treaty signed in 1994, in which they pledged to guarantee Ukraine's security in exchange for surrendering its share of Soviet nuclear arsenals to Russia. "Military aggression has been used against our country. Those who guaranteed that this aggression will not take place must from the one side pull out troops and from the other side must defend our independent, sovereign state," Yatsenyuk said. Later in the day, the Kiev parliament passed a resolution calling on the US and Britain to "use all possible diplomatic, political, economic and military measures for an immediate stopping of aggression." Deposed Ukraine president Yanukovich spoke on Tuesday in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, repeating Russia's claim that the new Ukrainian authorities are kowtowing to radical nationalists, and pose a threat to Russian-speaking eastern regions. He urged the country's soldiers not to fulfill the orders of the interim authorities. ~~~~~ Dear readers, there have been a lot of words, phone calls, TV interviews and general posturing this past week. But none of it has enabled the West to take hold of the situation in Ukraine and bring Kiev and Moscow to the negotiating table. Putin has secured Crimea and expects to win Sunday's referendum. If he does, we can expect Kiev to be outraged, the West to threaten more sanctions and Russia to respond with : "I told you Crimea wants to be Russian." None of this will advance the cause of peace. But, if Obama and Europe lose the battle in Crimea, they can still win the war by taking Kiev under their financial wings, promising it territorial security, and leading Kiev to negotiate a deal that keeps Crimea independent while recognizing Russia's special interests there. If there are important voices in Moscow opposed to confrontation between Russia and the West, so much the better. It will make it that much easier for the US-EU team to broker a good deal for Kiev and for EU gas supplies and for a Russian warm water Crimea port. It might even bring positive movement in Syria and/or Iran. But none of this will happen if Obama just keeps tossing about his preferred statement : "It's against international law," a term that is almost always finally defined by history's winners and bears little semblance to any national law. Sunday will be the time for a little chin-up-chest-out getting on with talking to Putin in the real politik terms he understands.