Wednesday, March 5, 2014

The Goal Is to Secure Ukraine and Calm Putin, not Go to War with Soviet Ghosts

The Ukraine crisis continues to occupy page one in world news. In his first interview since taking office, Ukraine's new prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, vigorously defended the legality of his government against attacks coming from Russia : "Let me remind Mr. Putin that this government was supported by the constitutional majority of Ukrainian MPs with 371 votes. We are legitimate and we must fulfill our responsibilities. And we strongly recommend to our Russian partners to build up relations with the new Ukrainian government." But Yatsenyuk also said Wednesday that Ukraine would be willing to consider granting more autonomy to the Crimea region in an effort to respond to the concerns of the province's pro-Russian population. He said he is willing to appoint a task force to make recommendations, although he was adamant that the Crimea peninsula in the Black Sea where Russian speakers are in the majority will remain part of Ukraine and blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for causing one of the sharpest international crises in Europe since the end of the Cold War. Asked by AP if he is concerned that Russia might send troops to occupy other Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine, Yatsenyuk said : "Let me put it bluntly: yes, it's still a concern and Russia is to realize its responsibility and Russia is to stick to its international obligation, to stop the invasion." Named by parliament on February 27, the new Ukrainian prime minister, a 39-year-old banker and former Ukraine finance minister who has support in the EU and America, also denied a report that Ukraine was negotiating with the United States for deployment of US missile defenses in exchange for financial help. "The only negotiations we have is to get financial support, financial aid from the United States government in order to stabilize the economic situation in my country. It's absurd. What happened in Crimea is unconstitutional and resembles a coup supported by the Russian government and the Russian military." And on Tuesday, the US made its first financial commitnent to Ukraine's new government when Secretary of State John Kerry visited Kiev to announce $1 billion in US assistance in the form of energy subsidies. Yatsenyuk told AP the economy "is in a big mess," but that the new government is taking action to improve things. Yatsenyuk noted that there is "unbelievable and unlimited corruption in my country, we cannot collect revenues in order to execute our social obligations, but despite this we have a clear-cut action plan how to tackle economic problems." In this regard, an International Monetary Fund mission is on the ground in Kiev. ~~~~~ Wednesday, events were focused on diplomatic meetings in Paris and Brussels. NATO tried to apply pressure in talks with Russia in Brussels. The 28 NATO member states decided after a meeting with their Russian counterpart to suspend plans for a joint mission as well as all civilian and military meetings. NATO Secretary-General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, said that because of Russia's military action in Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, "the entire range of NATO-Russia cooperation (is) under review." Rasmussen said the alliance will continue to meet with Moscow at the political level but said that halting all other cooperation "sends a very clear message to Russia." In Paris on Wednesday, the EU matched the €15 billion in aid offered by Russia to ousted Ukranian President Yanukovich and later withdrawn. The EU on Wednesday also froze the assets of 18 people held responsible for misappropriating state funds in Ukraine, following earlier similar action by Switzerland and Austria. The list targeted officials in the ousted government or businessmen related to them. Putin has said that Russia will meet any Western sanctions with a tough response, warning that those measures could incur serious "mutual damage." And, UN deputy secretary-general Jan Eliasson said that Robert Serry, the UN special envoy sent to Crimea was stopped by a dozen military men as he was leaving naval headquarters in Crimea. When the men ordered Serry to go to the airport, Serry refused and then was trapped in his blocked car. Serry told CNN he got out of the car and walked to a cafe. He was later escorted to the airport by friendly forces. In Washington, the US announced that it is stepping up joint aviation training with Polish forces. The Pentagon also is increasing American participation in NATO's air policing mission in its Baltic member countries. US Joint Chiefs Chairman General Martin Dempsey spoke to his Russian counterpart earlier in the day. Neither Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel nor Dempsey, who met with congressional oversight committees, mentioned military options. Meanwhile, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe sent a team of 35 unarmed military observers to Crimea on Wednesday at the Kiev government's request. Their goal is to learn "who is in power there and [what] conclusions the OSCE should draw from that." Financial markets settled down Wednesday after two days of big swings, a sign that investors believe the risk of war has been averted. ~~~~~ Dear readers, it is dangerous for the West to be lulled into thinking that Vladimir Putin is "in another world," as German Chancellor Merkel put it, or that he has lost contact with reality. While he has joined diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine-Crimea crisis that began in Paris on Wednesday, it would be naive to ignore what Putin is saying - no withdrawal of Russian troops from Crimea, no retreat from protecting Russian-heritage Ukrainians from the perceived "dangers" they face from Kiev, insistence on Russia's right to use force in Ukraine. Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Tuesday that he is pessimistic about a quick solution between the West and Russia. The former CIA chief told CBS that Putin "knows exactly what he's doing. He's trying to re-establish Russian influence and a measure of control over the former states of the Soviet Union." Joint air force maneuvers with Poland, whose frontier borders Ukraine, and similar activities in the Baltic states - Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia - now attached to the European Union and NATO, must be seen as the West's attempt to remind Russia and Putin that a return to a Soviet-style satellite state system in eastern Europe is not possible. But, without the Baltic access to the Atlantic, it is even more important for Russia to hold onto the Sevastopol warm water port in Crimea with its access to the Mediterranean and the Atlantic. Reason demands that Russia not be squeezed into a pen that it must escape, even at the risk of war. Today's call by Ukraine prime minister Iulia Timoshenko that Russia must leave Ukraine with nothing is a dangerously nationalistic cry that could lead to war in Europe. That would not be a solution. It would be a catastrophe.

7 comments:

  1. Concerened CitizenMarch 5, 2014 at 4:32 PM

    To underestimate Putin would be the biggest mistake that the US, EU, NATO, Ukraine (duly elected gov't), and anyone else could make. let us not be playing Pick-Up Sticks when Putin is making his next move on a Chess board.

    I'm not insinuating that Putin has the upper hand or is superior to anyone that is presently in this game ... but speaking of United States players - YES he is. Counting Putin's KGB experience he has played on the world stage for over 30 years now.

    For me the sticking points here is who is the elected Official Government of the Ukraine. And is it up to anyone to tell the people of Crimea they can not be part of Russia if such a decision is made freely. And lastely this has been BLOODLESS so far - doesn't that say something?

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  2. Putin knows what he's doing and at least the part of Crimea where the Russian Fleet is needs to be given back to Russia because it's the only port that doesn't freeze.

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  3. Chuck Hagel, when he announced we’re going to go to pre-World War II troop levels with our Army, pretty much what he was saying was, we can’t expect American dominance in the seas and sky and space any longer, that is not something we can come to expect any more? And that void will be filled by someone like Vladimir Putin or an alliance as we see between Putin and China, China having their own territorial ambitions?

    Think of it. Russia has a very modest economy if you leave out energy. It has a conscript military that is not impressive. There’s not a U.S. military person on the face of the earth that I’ve ever met who would think of trading our military for their military. Putin is punching so far above his weight class, and the United States isn’t punching at all. We don’t have a foreign policy, we don’t have a strategy. We don’t have supporters, imagine, think back when the president went to Congress and tried to get a coalition of other countries with respect to Syria. The other countries backed away. And then he went to congress and the members of Congress backed away. So basically I’m saying this is accumulation.

    And what’s tomorrow going to bring? Tomorrow it could be Central Asia, it could be the Republic of Georgia, it could be Iran or North Korea, and it could be the People’s Republic of China. We are asking — we’re telling the world we’re weak — why else would Vice President Biden say we’re not in decline - because we are in decline folks, no not decline we are free falling and the thud of hitting earth is not far away either.

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  4. Over this Ukrainian multi-pronged “Mexican Standoff” problem Obama is demonstrating to those dwindling (38% approval rating-his lowest ever) Americans that he is a blithering inept leader in the matters of foreign affairs.

    In Benghazi he created a scenario that cost the lives of a US Ambassador, and 3 very able operations staff. In Syria he drew a controversial “red” line in the sand that was quickly obliterated by the stampeding Assad military crossing it and other free nations backing away from it. And now we have the impending calamitous problem with Russia over the Ukraine & Crimea where yesterday 3 separate world meeting to settle the problem all ended in disparity and various sides walking out.

    Bottom line is that Benghazi is a potential administration ending Albatross around Obama’s neck with more verminous truths yet to be divulged.

    With the vote today by the Crimea parliament to actually re-join Russia this may be well on its way to self-settling.

    But why is our assertiveness and determination to be involved in Ukraine-Crimea discord so much more important or demanding than the actual United States sole immersion in Syrian Civil War as Obama promised after the discovery of 400 some children that had been “gassed” by one side or the other in Syria?

    Does the United States under Obama stand only on the side or PR and visibility and not “honor and rights”. Is this even Obama foreign policy involvement? Maybe its John Kerry launching pad into the 2016 democratic nomination battle with Obama’s blessing?

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  5. Come see - Come sawMarch 6, 2014 at 9:27 AM

    This would not be the first time that the United States went to war over "ghosts". On August 4th, 1964 in the Gulf of Tonkin the second alleged (the first occurring on August 2nd with real North Vietnam ships being in the area) encounter that the USS Maddox reported having with NV ships was later proven to never occurring ... "Ghost Ships" it was called. And after August 4th, 1964 we we on a on way street to a 10 year war with North Vietnam. And we all remember what that cost us in monies, lives, disabilities, and a divided home front. But LBJ knew all that and dated plans preceded August 1964.

    I'm not suggesting that Obama his "legacy" building here , but his "approval/confidence" poll numbers are down to their lowest at 38% of the American public.

    he needs help if he is not to be forever spoken of in the same light as the ineffective President Jimmy Carter.

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    1. There are others ghosts that have driven the United States foreign policy in the wrong direction. All of which have had disastrous effect on the world.

      The ghost WMD's (Weapons of Mass Destruction) in 2003 that signaled changing the face of the Middle East forever.

      Obama changing regimes twice (after Mubarak) in Egypt in search of his legacy (he's still looking - now in the Ukraine)

      And perhaps the biggest (and yet not substantiated) incident of "ghost warfare" was did FDR have knowledge of Perla Harbor prior and simply looked the other way because of his need for a positive legacy.

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  6. We should ... "TRUST BUT QUESTION" our leadership more.

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