Selecting the GOP 2016 Candidate - Principles, Programs, Process, Money

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is being encouraged to seek the 2016 Republican presidential nomination in a low-key effort by Mitt Romney's former financial and political backers, the Washington Post reports. Bush is seen as someone who can best unite the party as a viable alternative to New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has stumbled politically over the Bridge-gate affair. Concerned that the scandal has damaged Christie’s political standing, and alarmed by the steady rise of Senator Rand Paul, a Republican whose base is libertarian, prominent donors, conservative leaders and longtime operatives say they consider Bush the GOP’s best hope to win back the White House. Bush’s advisors sat he's not actively exploring the possibility of becoming a candidate and won't make a decision before the end of this year. But recently, Bush has crisscrossed the country making policy speeches, campaigning for Republicans running in the fall midterm elections, sharpening his messages on income inequality and foreign policy, and cementing ties with wealthy donors to the GOP. One such donor is casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson, who hosted Bush at a Los Vegas dinner for financial heavyweights where Bush was encouraged to enter the race. The "vast majority" of Romney's biggest contributors would reportedly support Bush, according to the Post, which says bundlers believe that the “vast majority” of Romney’s top 100 donors would back Bush in a competitive nomination fight : “He’s the most desired candidate out there....Everybody that I know is excited about it,” is the theme. ~~~~~ But, Bush, 61, would have some serious hurdles to jump as a candidate. He left the Florida governorship seven years ago, and some analysts think he's having difficulty discussing the GOP's major internal issues in ways that will keep everyone on board. "It'd be a little odd to nominate someone who was last in office in 2006, who hasn't been politically involved at all, in any significant way, in the Obama years," said Weekly Standard Editor William Kristol. But, Bush has written a book advocating immigration reform, campaigned for common core education standards, embraced the traditional GOP foreign policy agenda, opposed Medicaid expansion, and has told audiences that the nation is experiencing a lack of economic mobility. One core GOP issue where Jeb Bush has vacillated is immigration, moving from favoring a pathway to citizenship to saying citizenship is off the table. But, one immigration point clearly favors a Bush candidacy. He is fluent in Spanish and his wife Columba was born in Mexico. And Jeb Bush has longstanding credibility within the Hispanic community that could help broaden his coalition. If analysts are correct in saying that to win the presidency, the GOP will need to convince Hispanic Americans to vote Republican, then Bush is well placed, along with Florida Senator Marco Rubio. Tradition dictates that American political parties can't have president and vice president candidates from the same state, so either Bush or Rubio must bow to the other if the Hispanic vote is seen as so critical that it will be a defining issue in candidate selection. Jeb Bush is also seen as being the heavyweight who many Republicans say is required to compete with former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrats’ leading potential contender, although labeling Mrs. Clinton a heavyweight in anything but ambition is a stretch. “Jeb has the capacity to bring the party together,” the Post quotes Fred Malek, a top Republican, as saying. ~~~~~ So for now, dear readers, Bush's biggest selling point is that he is viewed favorably by the party's fundraisers and establishment. And he has an edge on immigration, not so much inside the GOP base, whose more conservative wing seems to be lost in a fantasy world where 10 million illegal immigrants will simply vanish into a Black Hole, but with the moderate GOP and independents, and with Hispanic American voters themselves, who understand only too well the impossibiliry of ideas such as self-deportation. And, just as important, Jeb Bush is popular with evangelicals, who are a more important force than Hispanics in GOP primaries. Perhaps it is this connection that made Bush say in January that he would consider a run if he could do it "joyfully" and be an uplifting force. This is an unusual way to describe a run for rhe White House. While being an "uplifting force" would be a definite improvement over the divisive and bitterly partisan Obama years, it will be necessary to understand more fully what Jeb Bush meant here. If he wants to uplift America into a Santorum-like extreme evangelical position, he would lose, just as Santorum did. If he means that he wants to restore America's faith in itself and in its Constitution, that would be a winning message. And, of course, a Jeb Bush candidacy would test whether the nation still has angry memories of the George W. Bush administration and whether America is suffering from "Bush fatigue." An early March ABC News/Washington Post poll tested 10 potential 2016 presidential candidates, including Hillary Clinton and nine Republicans, asking whether respondents “definitely would” vote for the candidate, “would consider” voting for the candidate or “definitely would not” vote for the candidate. This is admittedly not much more than a name recognition test and so it is no great surprise that Clinton – presumably the best known – got the highest marks. But what was interesting is how Jeb Bush fared : 6% said they would definitely vote for him and 38% would consider it – but fully 48% “definitely would not” vote for him. The only person who had a comparable “not” figure was Mitt Romney, and no one else had one higher than 40% (Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are at 40%, while New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is at 39% and Texas Senator Ted Cruz is at 38% – again showing the importance of name recognition). What, if anything, does this poll tell us? Not much. Rudi Giuliani was ahead in the same poll at the same period before the 2008 election. But, all the publicity around the efforts of heavyweight donors and bundlers to force the GOP into accepting Jeb Bush is not the ideal way either to select the right candidate or to endear the GOP to the large majority of Americans. I would be appalled to put GOP presidential possibles and America through another round of a thousand debates. But, before deciding on a candidate, Republicans deserve to at least hear what their principles are and how they would transform their ideas into programs. Don't let anyone, even Sheldon Adelson, up-end the process. We know what the GOP wants - jobs, less debt, lower and simpler taxes, repeal of Obamacare, restoration of America's world leadership role, and smaller federal government with fewer regulations. The person who can put those ideas into a coherent set of programs should be the GOP standard bearer. Immigration, religious issues and reaching out to Hispanics and Blacks will then follow naturally. First, the horse, then the cart, please.