Could Partition Be Best for Ukraine, the EU and Russia?

BBC is asking the right question : "Will Russia intervene militarily in Crimea to safeguard its strategic interests?" Or, more precisely, has Russia already intervened? Who are the armed men who seized control of Simferopol airport? BBC reporters on site say their equipment, vehicles and behaviour mark this as a trained military unit, not a local group of pro-Russian loyalists. "These men look like a formed and organised body of troops. They appear to be disciplined, confident and uniformly dressed and equipped," according to Brigadier Ben Barry, a land warfare expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "Irregular militia may obtain bits of official kit but they tend to look like a military jumble sale." So, it seems that a military unit secured the airport in the Crimean regional capital, Simferopol, on Friday morning. This is one of the reasons for the deepening tensions between Kiev and the Russians, who are making their usual threats and menaces aimed at the new interim authorities in Ukraine. Russian combat aircraft in areas bordering Ukraine are on alert. Snap military exercises have been held to demonstrate the readiness of Russian forces. Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said Russian soldiers had arrived in Sevastopol military airport near Russia's Black Sea Fleet Base on Friday and were patrolling outside, backed up by armoured vehicles, but Ukrainian military and border guards remained inside : "I consider what has happened to be an armed invasion and occupation in violation of all international agreements and norms," Mr Avakov said. Armed men also arrived at Simferopol airport overnight, some carrying Russian flags. A man called Vladimir told Reuters he was a volunteer helping the group there, though he said he did not know where they came from. "I'm with the People's Militia of Crimea," he said. But, the Russian military already is the major presence in Crimea, where it leases facilities from the Ukrainian authorities. The bulk of Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based in Crimea with its headquarters in Sevastopol. Russian naval personnel move freely in Sevastopol. The Russian navy dominates the town, but the Black Sea Fleet has a contingent of marines and there have been reports suggesting that Russian forces in and around Sevastopol have been bolstered in recent days. Andriy Parubiy, acting chairman of Ukraine's National Security Council, has claimed that both airports are now back under the control of Ukrainian authorities, but this has not been verified. In earlier actions -- on Thursday, a group of unidentified armed men entered Crimea's parliament building by force, and raised a Russian flag on the roof. The Crimean parliament then announced that it would hold a referendum on expanding the region's autonomy from Ukraine on 25 May, the same day elections are set in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged his government to maintain relations with Kiev, but he is also giving the Crimean government humanitarian aid. Putin has called for a rapid return to normality in Ukraine. He spoke to Western leaders by phone to emphasise "the extreme importance of not allowing a further escalation of violence," the Kremlin said. However, Ukraine's foreign ministry has sent a protest note to Moscow citing a violation of airspace and provisions of the treaty regulating the Russian presence in Crimea, a treaty under which the US, UK, France and the UN undertake to support Ukraine's territorial integrity. US Secretary of State John Kerry has called on all sides to "step back and avoid any kind of provocations." And Friday, ousted Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovich held his first news conference after fleeing Kiev, vowing to fight for Ukraine. Speaking in Russia, he said he was "not overthrown" but was compelled to leave Ukraine after threats to his life. Yanukovich told the news conference in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don : "What's going on now is lawlessness, lack of authority, and terror. Decisions in parliament were taken under duress." He apologized to the Ukrainian people for not having "enough strength to keep stability" and described his usurpers as "young, neo-fascists." Russia has threatened to increase customs duties at the two countries' border and warned of the threats to Russian minorities, orthodox religious shrines and so on. Although reminiscent of Russian rhetoric prior to its invasion of Georgia, many experts believe a similar full-scale Russian intervention in Ukraine is unlikely because of the size of Ukraine and the divisions within its population. Occupation would simply saddle Russia with involvement in what might rapidly become a bitter civil war. ~~~~~ However, the most urgent threat to the immediate future of Ukraine is economic. On top of its political problems, Ukraine has seriously urgent financial problems. The global banking association, the International Institute of Finance (IIF), warns that even if Ukraine slashes fuel subsidies and undertakes other reforms, it still requires $20 billion in foreign assistance over this year and next to service its debt and cover a large fiscal deficit, AFP reports. IIF economist Lubomir Mitov told AFP that the government needs "an injection of cash just to keep afloat. They need to get some money just to allow the budget to operate," he said. But getting quick bilateral support will be a challenge he says, because the EU and US in particular "are very reluctant to give a blank check to Ukraine." Here, Russian pressure serves a different purpose. Ukraine is heading towards bankruptcy. It needs outside funding and Moscow knows that Western financial institutions must play some kind of role. Its concern is to highlight as clearly as possible that any future Ukrainian government should reach out towards Moscow as much as to the EU. This also serves Russia's bottom line - Kiev should resist any temptation to move toward NATO. In other developments, Swiss and Austrian authorities have blocked the assets of Viktor Yanukovych and his associates, and launched a corruption probe. Russian MPs propose new laws that would make it easier for Russia to incorporate parts of Ukraine. And, amid growing fears of hyperinflation, Ukraine's central bank has put a 15,000 hryvnia (€1,000) limit on daily cash withdrawals. The UN Security Council is set to hold private discussions on the crisis later on Friday. ~~~~~ Dear readers, it is anyone's guess what the outcome for Ukraine will be. If Russia can be persuaded to settle for keeping Crimea as an independent enclave that guarantees the security of Russia's Black Sea Fleet - and if Kiev can be persuaded to let go of the Crimea in exchange for a financial support package to guarantee its economic future - then partition into west and east Ukraine would be a clean answer. There are two small Russian areas in the west but these people could be given the choice about their future. Russia has a natural historical role to play in deciding the future of Ukraine, and it would be advisable for the EU and the US to accommodate that role instead of threatening Russia. Crimea has a large pro-Russian population, probably the majority. Many Russian naval personnel are retired there. It is physically and politically far from Kiev. Current Russian pressure in Crimea serves Moscow's wider purpose of reminding Ukraine's new rulers that Moscow's concerns must be considered in any future economic and diplomatic arrangements. But, in all negotiations, the democratic future of the valiant people of Ukraine who courageously won their freedom from near-tyranny, must have equal weight with any Russian agenda.