Weekend Events in Greece and Egypt

Where are we today, dear readers? Several important elections took place this weekend - in Greece and Egypt, but the results are not all in. Do we know enough to evaluate the results?
Let’s say what we can today and watch events this week to see what may still happen.

1. First Greece.
No party won an outright parliamentary majority in Sunday’s elections, but the conservative parliamentary parties believe they can find a coalition to form a government. What is certain is that some leftist parties will have to agree to participate in the coalition in order to have a parliamentary majority. And, the strongest voices from the left are not ready to lay down their anti-Euro guns just yet.
The Greek election result is being hailed as a vote to stay in the Eurozone and accept the austerity programs in place for Greece to continue to receive financial support from the Eurozone leadership and European Central Bank. This is critical to keeping Greece from defaulting on its debt load and also to pay its normal bills each month.
The head of the New Democracy party, Antonis Samaras, said Sunday night that it is “imperative to form a government.” This means he will put together a list of names, selected from the cobbled coalition to be ministers in the new government. Samaras is calling it imperative because he sees the new government negotiating with the Eurozone and the ECB to keep Greece in the Eurozone and to discuss the terms of the austerity program going forward.
Does that sounds like it falls a bit short of all-out Greek capitulation to the austerity program already in place? Probably. Because, no matter what the new Greek government does, the financial and fiscal facts have not changed. Greece cannot borrow what it needs on the open markets. It is still dependent on the ECB and the Eurozone to lend it all it must have to continue to function. This is not going to change any time soon.
France, the European Union and even Germany have said they are now willing to agree to easing the terms of the Greek austerity program.
The EU now seems to understand that what it demanded of Greece was not the best medicine for the “sick man of Europe.”
But, financial markets opened on Monday on a very cautious note, not flaming upward as one might have thought. The experts are still saying that Greece cannot continue as it is forever, that the weekend’s election has only bought time and not created a “cure.” The Greek stock market was the exception, soaring 6.9% on Monday morning.
Most analysts see the Greek vote as a reaction against the unknown -- the unknown consequences of leaving the Eurozone and the Euro currency behind, defaulting and returning to the Drachma. And with a rather fragile coalition government in place, say the experts, perhaps Greece has bought only months before the truly hard decisions must be made, i.e., stay or leave the Eurozone.

2. Now, let’s try to figure out what is happening in Egypt.

Egypt held its presidential election this weekend. The Muslim Brotherhood says it won and its candidate, Mohammed Morsi will be the new president. The other candidate, a former Mubarak prime minister, says when all the votes have been counted, he will be the winner. If Mosri is the winner, it will be the first time that an Islamist will lead Egypt, the largest Muslim country in the Arab world.
What is most likely is that the Egyptian military will be the real winner, even though the army is promising to turn over power on June 30 to the new president, whoever he may be.
This is because the Army junta that has ruled Egypt since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, gave itself broad powers while the election was being held.
Egyptian newspapers are saying, more or less, that the Army will turn over power on June 30 to itself and that the newly elected president will be largely without real power.
Many of the young leaders of the rebellion against Mubarak say that the Army will never cede power to civilians and that what is happening now amounts to a military coup.
At the same time, the Egyptian Constitutional High Court ruled that the parliamentary election earlier this year that gave the Muslim Brotherhood a majority, was flawed and threw out the results. The consequence is that Egypt has no parliament until new elections are held. A date has not yet been set.
And, the new constitution must be adopted before any parliamentary election will be valid, according to the High Court. This was an issue during the parliamentary elections which was brushed aside by political groups that supported the Brotherhood, and who controlled the constitution adoption process still not completed.
The High Court ruled that a constitutional reform committee that representatives of all factions of Egyptian society must be included in the committee that controls the writing and adoption of the new constitution, which must then be approved by popular referendum. The High Court kept for itself the right to veto any part of the constitution that is contrary to “the supreme interests” of Egypt. And, the Court noted that it will also have the last word on anything that concerns the Egyptian Army.
Are you still with me, dear readers?
One might say that things are now clearer in Egypt. Whether they are more democratic, time will tell. But, at least for the moment, the High Court seems to be in control of the messy birth of Egyptian democracy.