Syria, Turkey and Egypt, Opportunities for Success

Turkey announced on Tuesday that it will retaliate against anyone who breaches its border with Syria.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke before the Turkish parliament, saying that “the rules of engagement of the Turkish armed forces have now changed. Every military element that poses a threat and a danger to the security of the Turkish borders with Syria will be considered a military target.”
Erdogan said that the shooting down in “international air space and not Syrian air space” of the F-4 Phantom while it was on a training mission was a “hostile act” and showed that the “Syrian regime has become a clear and close menace for Turkey and her people.”
The Turkish prime minister added that his country will respond to the attack “at the opportune moment” and with “determination.”
Erdogan also pointed out that Turkey will continue to support the Syrian people until they have made the “cruel dictatorship” of al-Assad fall.
At the same time, a NATO meeting in Brussels found the shooting down of a Turkish jet by Syria “unacceptable” and gave its full “support and solidarity” to Turkey.
NATO met under Article 4 of the Alliance’s treaty, which states that when any member country considers its territorial integrity threatened, it may call the other members to take the matter into consideration.
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that the Alliance is “indivisible. We are at Turkey’s side in a strong spirit of solidarity.”
Rasmussen echoed Erdogan’s words, noting Syria’s “contempt for international rules, peace and security, as well as for human life.”
Syria, and it seems Russia, are taking the position that the Turkish F-4 Phantom was testing the Syrian air defense system for NATO when it was shot down. Experts specializing in Russian military affairs said that the Russian State Agency Ria Novosti said that the fact that the plane was shot down proves the effectiveness of the Russian-built Syrian air defense system.
Turkish vice prime minister Bulent Arinc stipulated that a Turkish rescue airplane was fired on by Syrians on Monday while trying to find the F-4 pilots presumed lost at sea.
Turkey is threatening to stop the delivery of electricity from Turkey to Syria as a reprisal for the F-4 incident. This could mean the loss of electricity for Syrian civilians.
Iran said on Tuesday that it will use its good relations with Turkey and Syria to try to resolve the matter.
Syria’s al-Assad regime has other matters, which it surely considers more pressing, to address right now. Today, the Syrian armed forces is reported to have used heavy artillery within 10 kilometers of Damascus in an attempt to stop rebel forces now moving toward the capital. The last two days, at least 110 people, mostly civilians, have been killed in the fighting in suburban areas around Damascus.
These suburbs contain large bases that house Syrian military and are very important for the al-Assad regime. It is also in these suburbs that many al-Assad military officers and their families live.
Farther north in Homs, the rebel forces and civilians are calling for help, reporting that Alaowite forces loyal to al-Assad are targeting Sunni civilians, as in the massacres of two weeks ago.
That, dear readers, is what is happening in, and related to, Syria this week.
But, it calls to my mind another question.
There is an elected president, Mohammed Mosri, in Egypt. He is the head of government (with a lot of power still in the hands of the Egyptian army) of the largest and one of the most influential Muslim Arab countries in the Middle East.
Mosri is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist force that fought against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak for thirty years, insisting on a more conservative, Islamist form of government for the country.
The Brotherhood has now won. And Mosri insists that he will preside over an Egypt that is democratic, non-religious, and respectful of women and Christians. He says he will honor Egypt’s international commitments, a code phrase for the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli accord.
In brief, President Mosri is making the right noises. Will he keep his word? Time will tell.
But, the West, and America in particular, may be missing the boat here. Focusing so tightly on the word “Islamist” may actually be causing the West to miss Mosri’s message. I don’t say we ought to lower our guard and give him full rein, but perhaps we ought to be listening and responding as if he were sincere.
Consider --
1. We have pounded away at the terrorist line in the Middle East for ten years. We have brought down Saddam Hussein and essentially wrecked Iraq, which is trying to put itself together but which won’t have the leisure of playing a large regional role for some time.
2. We have seen that while the Arab Spring has freed millions from the grip of horrible dictatorships, these peoples are not ready to govern and are on a long learning curve about government and democracy.
3. We have watched a hostile Iran flex its muscles in the region, trying to gain hegemony over its neighbors with a nuclear threat that the West seems unable to address with urgency.
4. We see Israel surrounded now more than ever by hostile governments that would either like to see her eliminated or which have no desire to make her a part of their future.
So, what does the West, and America in particular, have to lose by trying to get along with the new Egyptian president?
There’s a Kenny Rogers song that talks about poker. It says “you have to know when to hold and know when to fold.”
The West may be at that point in the Middle East. Folding, i.e., quitting, is not the thing to do. But, holding on with a better draw from the deck might give us a chance.
If we can cajole Mosri to keep his social promises, if we can convince him to let Egyptians rule themselves, if we can help him to rebuild the Egypt gutted by Mubarak’s cronies, if we can find ways for him to look good as he honors the Egyptian commitment to Israel, then maybe there would be a stable democratic country at the heart of the Middle East.
And, there is Turkey on the other end of the troubled area in the region. The Syrian mess has made the European Union temporarily put aside its objections to Turkey as a European power. Now may be the time for America to raise again with quiet diplomacy its commitment to Turkey being admitted to the EU, if Turkey still wants to be a member.
These things combined might give the people of the Middle East a chance to develop their democracies, to gain new economic and educational power, and to rebuff the real Islamists who would bring down the region just to make the West weaker and to pound home their brand of religious extremism.
It may be the West’s last best chance to salvage its position in the Middle East, to grow partners for peace in a strategic region that sorely needs it, and to put behind us the notion that people in the Middle East, individually or collectively, can be won over by pointing guns at them.