Friday, June 3, 2016
Saturday Politics : A Prepared NATO and a Strong US President
Saturday politics and foreign policy. ~~~~~ NATO members were slow to see the full significance of Putin's invasion of Ukraine -- Russia's annexation of
Crimea and fomenting the breakaway of eastern Ukraine, making it a pro-Russian satellite, was the first border change in Europe since 1945. EU countries agreed to sanctions on Russia to try to roll back its acts, but some -- led by Italy and Greece -- now want to end them because of longstanding commercial and natural gas supply ties. Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves believes sanctions have had "a deterring effect," and ending them would only encourage Putin to nibble further. ~~~~~ But, Putin now threatens to nibble in the Baltics and NATO will have trouble defending the Baltic states. They're located at NATO's fringe where Russia can easily and rapidly flood troops. It has been estimated that NATO could hold out for three days against a swift, Crimea-type land grab. But, if Russia’s motivation -- that it should be treated as a superpower whose near border areas must be respected -- is taken into consideration, NATO might find ways to defuse Baltic and perhaps Ukraine tensions. At the same time, NATO and Europe must be ready for the probability that Putin wants to weaken NATO and the EU and create and lead a Putin-style "democracy" in Europe. His nuclear-rattling may be meant to test NATO's determination. So far, NATO holds firm and will deploy 4,000 more troops to the Baltics and Poland on a rotating basis. Key NATO countries are also waking up to the need to spend more on defense. The key will be to acknowledge Russia's border concerns while maintaining the military preparedness that stifles Putin aggression. As Estonia's Ilves pointed out -- Al-Jazeera surprisingly agrees -- Putin probably invaded Ukraine because it is NOT a NATO member and so his invasion did not automatically trigger a NATO military response. Taking eastern European countries into NATO may actually deter Putin, who surely has no illusion that his forces could win against a concerted NATO-US attack. ~~~~~ Fiscal Times' Patrick Smith wrote in October 2015 that when Obama and Putin met at the UN in September 2015, Putin invited Obama to co-lead a united front against ISIS. Smith quoted "sound sources in Moscow." Events tell us Obama refused, and we recall Defense Secretary Ash Carter repeating that he had confidence Russia would fail to defeat ISIS. It was a missed opportunity because Putin is eager to keep jihadist terrorists out of Russia and also to preserve his naval base at Tartus in Syria. Obama could have deferred deciding about keeping Syrian President Bashir al-Assad in power and negotiating a Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean until ISIS was defeated. ~~~~~ Earlier this year, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said the "Mediterranean region is the core of all essential dangers to Russia's national interests." He also announced plans for a new Russian naval task force in the Mediterranean, but in order to operate in the Med, Putin needs access to a chain of ports for refuelling and resupplying from Syria to Gibraltar, he found them, many of which, surprisingly, are in NATO and EU countries, at a time when NATO has broken off relations with Russia and the EU has imposed economic sanctions. Malta, Greece and Spain have offered port facilities to Russian ships. It is unacceptable for NATO and EU states to welcome the Russian navy, often near key NATO naval bases, while Moscow is trying to destroy Ukraine -- the weakness encourages Putin. ~~~~~ Dear readers, in Europe, the Mediterranean and Syria, NATO/EU/US don't need to agree with Putin to work with him to defeat ISIS, negotiate a political transition in Syria, eliminate the terrorist threats near Russia's borders or arrange 'peaceful co-existence' in eastern Europe and the Baltics. Putin has skin in these games, and falling oil income makes negotiation tempting. Putin is more powerful than he should be because he plays Obama's dangerous weakness. The next US President must deal from strength to be able to negotiate.
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Does the United States have a habit of losing won wars? The population and politicians for their unwillingness to persist in prolonged conflicts or long-term postwar political projects that weren’t part of the original reasons for the war.
ReplyDeleteIf this keeps happening, it is probably because the public can’t see the value in sacrificing more American lives in unnecessary wars that had little or nothing to do with U.S. security, and it is probably because no one expected that fighting a given war entailed making a decades-long commitment to remaking the country in question. If that were understood in advance, Americans would likely be much less willing to support those wars, which is one reason why supporters of each new war always minimize how much it will cost, how long it will last, and how much the U.S. will have to keep doing once the initial campaign has ended.
If long lasting peace was lost after wares ended, that was in no small part due to the nature of the peace imposed on the defeated parties. The problem wasn’t that the U.S. left after the war had ended, but that the U.S. helped the Allies to achieve a victory that they exploited as vengefully as possible. The mistake, as usual, was the decision to enter a war that the U.S. could have avoided.
Last month alone several Baghdad bombings attributed to ISIS killed more than a hundred civilians and wounded hundreds more. The attacks are a tragic reminder that Iraq is still a nation in turmoil. But they should also be a reason—more than 13 years after the decision to topple Saddam Hussein and undertake nation-building in Mesopotamia—to reevaluate U.S. policy in Iraq.
ReplyDeleteISIS is largely a threat in Iraq and the region immediately surrounding it. The group’s overarching strategic goal is to establish an Islamic caliphate in the heart of the Muslim world by waging a war within the Middle East. Acceptance of this fact is a large step forward to securing part of the Middle East.
An ISIS statement after the Paris attacks made clear that they were acts of revenge for France’s involvement in the U.S.-led coalition bombing of militants in Iraq and Syria. And it said Belgium was targeted as “a country participating in the international coalition against the Islamic State.” In other words, they were attacks in response to Western military intervention in Muslim countries.
The point that I am reaching here for is that we need to be sure that the actions of Russia is something more than Russia “nation-building” of land that the Old Russian Empire once had. Is this an ideological battle that can be fought and won only by inhabitants of the involved countries, and will not be resolved anytime soon.
What Is the Costs of a Foreign Occupation and Defense of people unable to defend themselves?
ReplyDelete“ … Mr. President, this is the eternal law of human nature. You may struggle against it, you may try to escape it, you may persuade yourself that your intentions are benevolent, that your yoke will be easy and your burden will be light, but it will assert itself again. Government without the consent of the governed—an authority which heaven never gave—can only be supported by means which heaven never can sanction…”
“We have answered this question a good many times in the past. The fathers answered it in 1776, and founded the Republic upon their answer, which has been the cornerstone. John Quincy Adams and James Monroe answered it again in the Monroe Doctrine, which John Quincy Adams declared was only the doctrine of the consent of the governed. The Republican party answered it when it took possession of the force of government at the beginning of the most brilliant period in all legislative history. Abraham Lincoln answered it when, on that fatal journey to Washington in 1861, he announced that the doctrine of his political creed, and declared, with prophetic vision, that he was ready to be assassinated for it if need be.”
“The question will be answered again hereafter. It will be answered soberly and deliberately and quietly as the American people are wont to answer great questions of duty. It will be answered, not in any turbulent assembly, amid shouting and clapping of hands and stamping of feet, where men do their thinking with their heels and not with their brains. It will be answered in the churches and in the schools and in the colleges; and it will be answered in fifteen million American homes; and it will be answered as it has always been answered. It will be answered right.”
The above are passages from a speech on the floor of the United States Senate in 1902 given by Senator George Frisbie Hoar (1826 – 1904), a prominent Republican politician and longtime Senator from Massachusetts. But more than a politician Senator Hoar was an American who understood our worldly responsibilities and was willing to carry them out – unlike most today.
Democracy is being challenged today as never before since the end of the Cold War. There are recorded ten consecutive years during which democracy and human rights have declined in more countries than it has advanced. There have been setbacks and backsliding in countries as diverse as Thailand, Venezuela, Hungary, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, and of course in Russia and China as well.
ReplyDeleteCertainly one of the reasons for the view that democracy is in decline is the failure of the Arab Spring. There is blame to go around—from the military and the deeply entrenched state bureaucracy from Russia to the Middle East that never had any intention of allowing a real transition to democracy.
No autocratic, dictatorial, despotic, repressive dictatorial governments appreciated the need to build consensus on core constitutional principles and democratic reforms, and so, instead of finding a way to build coalitions to move forward, the process descended into a zero-sum struggle for power retention. The Middle East, Northern Africa, Eastern Europe, and the Baltic Area are more benighted than in the past 70 years. Perhaps most troubling has been the geopolitical retreat of the West that has opened the way to the emergence of ISIS and other dangerous developments, among them Iran’s expanding influence in the Arab world, Putin’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine and his reassertion of Russian power in the Middle East for the first time since Sadat cut Egypt’s military ties with the Soviet Union after the 1973 war, and not least, China’s brazen assertion of power in the South China Sea.
Russian propaganda effort as the weaponization of information instead of trying to promote the regime’s political line, which was the purpose of Soviet propaganda during the Cold War, its goal now is to undermine the institutions of the West by destroying the credibility of all information. With the democratic West absorbed as it is today in its own problems, the effort to advance democracy is being led not by the West but by the global democracy movement—the people and organizations on the ground in one country after another in the global south and post-communist world who are fighting to defend their rights and human dignity.
It is ironic that the United States and other Western countries should need democratic inspiration from the very people they should be helping. But that should encourage leadership and humility, virtues that will be needed in abundance as we try to respond effectively to the immense challenges that lie ahead in a dangerous and complex world.
There is no such thing as “far away” in this post 9-11-2001 world.
ReplyDeleteFrom the moment the towers fell, the news was full of theories about American "interests" and actions abroad. For those of us who were younger and not personally connected to any country outside the U.S., it may have been the first time we'd really given any thought to the relationship between the other side of the world and our own personal lives, let alone Middle East politics. It was the awakening of the idea of global connectedness for us. But more it was a warning I believe to stay out of the Middle East religious & ethnic problems … “Warning: stay away, this is of no concern to you. We can do this again.”.
And yet they really haven’t as part of ISIS, etc. Ever ask yourself Why; and really find the answer? Was it all because of President Bush aggressive (though maybe a little misdirected) leadership? Or the united front that Congress presented? Or maybe the willingness of the American public to support anything that sent American troops to fight? In reality none of these. It was a warning to stay out of the Middle East.
And we didn’t and we will be hit again sometime much harder.
Because we in the United States do not experience day after day of murderous car bombings as in all parts of the Middle East, or assaults on civilians a few times each year over cartoon characters like France has, and Spain, England, etc., etc.
The West needs to step back and make some hard decisions about Russia. Mostly are they a threat or a passing menace. What are their real intentions? Do they have visions past once occupied countries (that speak as much Russians as they do anything else) that made the USSR empire so large.
If tackling Russia someplace in Eastern Europe is decided to be justified – then do it swiftly and Putin most likely will back down. The world knows without a doubt (even in our Obama created under staffed military) that the United States is the most powerful nation bar none.
We need to always be ready for the rest of the world in their hour of need.
STARTING WITH CASEY POPS POSTING ON SUNDAY, MAY 29TH, 2016 UP THROUGH AND INCLUDING FRIDAY, JUNE 3RD, 2016 WE HAVE ALL BEEN TREATED TO A MOST PROFOUND, NO HOLDS BARRED, COMMON SENSE HISTORY LESSON.
ReplyDeleteA HISTORY LESSON ON NOT ONLY WHAT HAPPENED, WHAT SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED, WHY IT DID OR DIDN’T HAPPEN; BUT MORE SO BETWEEN THE LINES WHERE WE (THE PEOPLE) DROPPED THE BALL OR ACTED ACCORDINGLY.
THERE IS NO BOOK THAT OFFERS AS MUCH INFORMATION IN SO VERY LITTLE SAPCE AND WORDS AS THIS DOES.
MY THANKS AND MY FRIENDS AROUND THE WORLD THANKS GOES OUT TO CASEY POPS. THIS HAD TO BE A LOTS OF TIME CONSUMING RESEARCH AND CONSTRUCTION
THANK YOU AND BRAVO FOR A JOB WELL DONE.