NATO and Russia Trapped in Knee-jerk Military Confrontation

Revisiting the NATO/US/Russia mini Cold War, we should note that US, British and Polish soldiers parachuted into Poland Tuesday in a show of force as NATO launched Anaconda, its biggest war games in eastern Europe since the Cold War. Japan Today says the exercises -- set against the military and diplomatic standoff between Russia and the West -- "have rattled the Kremlin." As for the West, NATO says the Anaconda exercises involving 31,000 troops -- 14,000 of them American -- are meant to improve security on NATO’s eastern flank, where member states are frightened by Russia’s increasing aggression after its 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. Troops from 24 countries, including non-NATO Finland and Kosovo, as well as ex-Soviet “Partnership for Peace” states like Ukraine, will participate in events all over Poland. Anaconda is designed to emulate a “joint defensive operation on a large scale,” says the US Army. The US says it took just 24 hours for 500 rapid “Global Response” paratroopers to deploy 4,500 miles from the world’s largest military base in Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov feels the exercises "do not contribute to an atmosphere of trust and security. Unfortunately we are still witnessing a deficit in mutual trust.” ~~~~~ Anaconda occurs ahead of the July Warsaw NATO summit, where despite NATO's cutting all cooperation with Moscow over the Ukraine crisis, formal talks with the Russians will occur, and where NATO's largest makeover since the Cold War will see the deployment of more troop rotations to eastern European member states. Moscow strongly opposes the deployments, said by NATO to be part of its “deterrence and dialogue” strategy. Russia has long protested NATO expansion in its Soviet-era backyard and in 1997 NATO formally agreed not to install permanent bases in former Warsaw Pact states. However, since the Ukraine conflict began in 2014, NATO has created a high-speed “spearhead” response force, with forward command and logistic centers in eastern NATO states. The Pentagon announced in March the deployment of an additional armored brigade of 4,200 troops in eastern Europe from early 2017 on a rotational basis. And, last month Moscow and Washington accused each other of creating an aggressive military presence in Europe as the US starts work on a missile shield in Poland and Romania, and Russia vows to “end threats” posed by the missile system, despite US assurances its purpose is to prevent potential attacks by “rogue” states in the Middle East. ~~~~~ Eastern European NATO members have reason to worry. Russia has significantly upped its presence in the Baltic Sea area and its jets regularly violate the airspace of small ex-Soviet NATO allies like Estonia. In April, they buzzed a US naval destroyer. Some analysts question whether NATO’s strategy of using rotational rather than permanent forces can secure its eastern flank. Carnegie Europe analyst Judy Dempsey said in an interview with AFP : “Russian exercises are sophisticated, they’re big, they’re intimidating and look what they’re doing in Kaliningrad,” she said, referring to Moscow’s maneuvers in the non-contiguous Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic. Dempsey says Kaliningrad is "a warning to NATO: ‘don’t forget, we’re right inside NATO territory.'" Russia has also said it will set up three new divisions in Russia's west and south by year's end to counter NATO forces near its border. Calling the situation “a test of wills,” Dempsey said she believes Russia’s sabre-rattling is aimed at stopping NATO from encroaching even closer by taking Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. But, Dempsey asks if NATO can respond rapidly enough to stop a Russian land grab, "how long will it really take to mobilize ..?” ~~~~~ Dear readers, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov told his Finnish counterpart Russia will respond to NATO in the Baltic because it has the sovereign right to secure its territory. The leit-motif : Russia feels trapped and lashes out. NATO responds. But, negotiation, not knee-jerk confrontation, is the answer.