Russia and NATO : Cold War II Has Started

In early May, General Philip Breedlove, outgoing NATO military chief, announced a return to three US armored brigades in Europe : “...to demonstrate our strong and balanced approach to reassuring our NATO allies and partners in the wake of an aggressive Russia....our allies...will see more capability...a more frequent presence of an armored brigade with more modernized equipment in their countries.” A day earlier, General Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, cited Russia as a principal persistent security challenge and noted increased Russian conventional and recently matured digital military capabilities -- “new intercontinental ballistic missiles, aircraft, nuclear-powered submarines, tanks, and air defense systems.” The rearmament in Europe reverses a longstanding US defense de-emphasis on a region considered stable after the collapse of the Soviets. It also comes in the twilight of Obama, whose reluctance to deploy ground troops seems no longer to restrict US command planning. ~~~~~ Admiral Mark Ferguson, Commander US Naval Forces Europe, recently told CNN the US has 53 submarines, but that decommissioning and budget decisions will reduce the number to 41 by the late 2020s. Retired Admiral James Stavridis, former NATO supreme allied commander, says : "We cannot maintain 100% awareness of Russian sub activity today. Our attack subs are better, but not by much. Russian subs pose an existential threat to US carrier groups." Russia is also expanding other military components. It is adding or upgrading 12 naval bases in the Arctic Circle -- expanding its capability to send multiple subs through the crucial Greenland-Iceland-UK gap into the Atlantic and closer to US and NATO territorial waters. Russia also recently sent six submarines to the Black Sea, for greater Mediterranean reach. Ferguson says the Russian activity appears designed to achieve multiple objectives, including denying NATO and the US the ability to operate within Russia's so-called "near abroad" (eastern Europe, the Baltics, the Black Sea, the Arctic). ~~~~~ US Army General Curtis Scaparrotti has taken over from General Breedlove as commander for US European forces, a role that also makes him the supreme allied commander of NATO's European forces. Scaparrotti is a counter-insurgency Afghanistan veteran, whose latest tour was leading US forces supporting the South Korean military against the North Korea threat. The Pentagon sees Scaparrotti's NATO command as a transition away from organizing the NATO alliance to preparing for and preventing war. A senior defense official noted : "We're moving from assurance to deterrence...from assurance to war-fighting posture." ~~~~~ US European Command assumed greater relevance when Russia began its military and political aggression, leading to the 2014 Crimea annexation and provocative movements between its armed forces and America’s. Just before Scaparrotti took over, a Russian fighter jet did a "barrel roll" over a US reconnaissance plane in the Baltic Sea. A similar incident occurred in mid-April, as well as two encounters earlier in April between Navy destroyer the USS Donald Cook and Russian aircraft. Russia brushed off the incidents. Russian Defense spokesman General Igor Konashenkov said : "Western media's allegations of a 'dangerous' fly-by of a Russian SU-27 jet and an American RC-135 in the Baltics are false." ~~~~~ Dear readers, RT, the Kremlin-sponsored Russian media outlet, says Russia will modernize a missile attack warning station near Crimea’s Sebastopol to counter increasing NATO Black Sea activity. It will detect launches of ballistic and cruise missiles, including hypersonic models, from the Black and Mediterranean Seas, protecting Russia from the south and southeast. Russian Defense also says it has the right to put nuclear weapons in Crimea. And, Russia's military will hold over 2,000 summer armed forces exercises as tensions with NATO continue, while NATO BALTOPS-16 exercises in the Baltic will include 6,000 troops, 45 warships and 60 aircraft. Tomorrow -- where are we headed?