From the Baltics to Syria, Russian Heightened Military Aggression Is Answered with NATO-US Military Build-up

Countries lean toward preparation for war to solve foreign and territorial problems. War expenditures amounted to about $1.7 trillion last year, according to data just released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Last year marked the first increase in worldwide military spending since 2011, up 1% over 2014. The top spenders were : (5) the UK spent $55.5 billion, moving up from sixth in 2014, moving above France, which fell from fifth to seventh place. (4) Russia spent on new, advanced weaponry, a war in Syria and military operations at the Ukraine border but still fell to fourth place, with $66.4 billion in military spending. (3) Saudi Arabia contributed to the US-led coalition against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, battled Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen and countered Iran’s growing influence in the region and the world, spending $87.2 billion, or 13.7% of GNP, on defense. (2) China was the only world power except the US to spend more than $100 billion on defense in 2015, spending an estimated $215 billion, or 2.1% of GDP. (1) The United States spent $596 billion, dwarfing everyone else. ~~~~~ Putting aside China, the other top spenders are all in the Europe-Mediterranean arc. In the early 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet empire, the West believed liberal democracy had triumphed. Many thought NATO was an anachronism in an era of permanent European peace. Some eastern European countries freed from Kremlin control, including tiny Estonia, knew better. Only 25 years later, the EU is unstable and populism grows, while a resurging Russia bent on restoring past glory is making nuclear threats against NATO member states. ~~~~~ Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves was in Philadelphia recently to address a Baltic studies conference at the University of Pennsylvania -- the son of Estonian refugees, he studied in the US and is a Penn alumnus. Ilves told his audience : "Twenty-five years of Western history are over. The optimism of the 1990s has been shattered by Russia. Russia is back with 19th-century goals and 21st-century means. But, we are clueless amid transformational change to which we do not know how to respond because we don't know what we want to achieve." ~~~~~ There are lots of political issues : the EU is losing control as anti-immigrant parties and member-state self-rule agendas threaten to overpower EU undemocratic elitist leaders; Trump and Sanders are shaking the traditional two-party grip on America as the middle class sees its way of life challenged by those forcing on them progressive values they reject; Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to return Russia to superpower status and rebuild the eastern Europe, Black Sea and southern Asia client-state buffer zones. ~~~~~ In the midst of uncertainty and military muscling-up, NATO has pledged to expand its military footprint in eastern Europe, made new commitments in the fight against ISIS, and agreed to deploy warships in the Aegean Sea to deter people-smuggling networks that ferry migrants from Turkey into EU's Greece. Although the first two pledges reinforce NATO’s mission, the Aegean operation represents a uniquely new type of mission. And, we noted Wednesday, NATO says the increase in military forces will be funded by increased US military spending -- an uneven burden when we consider that Germany, the EU economic engine, spent $39 billion, 1.2% of GDP, on defense in 2015. It has announced a 6.5% increase over the next five years but will still be below NATO's 2% defense spending commitment. ~~~~~ Dear readers, we are in a period of major excalation in military hardware, with an unprecedented unmanned electronic component. The area from Scandinavia and the Baltics through Europe, Black Sea nations, Eurasia, and the Mediterranean to the Middle East is at risk -- this area is identical to the World War II Europe/north Africa/Middle East Theatre. With so much at stake, every nation should be considering how to de-escalate away from unintended but enormously negative consequences. Tomorrow...