Putin's Plan for the Middle East

Events in Syria are taking the shape of a John Le Carre spy novel. ~~~~~ (1) US Defense Secrerary Ash Carter admitted Monday that Russia has escalated Syria's civil war by targeting moderate opposition supported by the US coalition. He said Moscow's attacks bolster Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. (2) Russia's move into Syria is the largest foreign deployment of Russian forces since the collapse of the USSR, which was instrumental in rebuilding Syria’s military after its disastrous wars with Israel in 1967 and 1973. Syria provides Russia’s only Mediterranean naval facility at Tartous. Since 2011, Russia has been the chief backer of al-Assad, protecting him from UN resolutions and stepping up arms deliveries. (3) Russian President Putin says Russia is fighting ISIS. But, 40 Syrian insurgent groups, including some of the most powerful groups fighting al-Assad, who are armed by Arab states, called on regional states to form an alliance against al-Assad, Russia and Iran, saying regional cooperation is needed to stop "the Russian-Iranian alliance" occupying Syria : "Civilians have been directly targeted in a manner that reminds us of the scorched earth policy pursued by Russia in its past wars." (4) The US and NATO denounced Russia yesterday for violating Turkish air space along the Syria frontier. Turkey, a NATO member, threatens to respond if provoked again, raising the possibility of direct confrontation between two Cold War enemies. NATO held an emergency member meeting to respond to what Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called "unacceptable violations of Turkish air space." NATO members "strongly protest" and "condemn incursions into Turkish and NATO territory, call on the Russian Federation to cease and desist, and immediately explain these violations," NATO said in a post-meeting statement. The Obama administration responded in weaker terms, saying the US and its allies were "quite concerned" about the incursion. Turkey, with NATO's second biggest army, scrambled two F-16 jets on Saturday when a Russian aircraft entered its air space near its southern Hatay province, the Turkish foreign ministry said. In a second incident, the Turkish military said a MiG-29 fighter - an aircraft used by both Russia and Syria - harassed two of its F-16s on Sunday by locking its radar on to them as they patrolled the border. The Russian Defense Ministry said an SU-30 fighter aircraft had entered Turkish air space along the border with Syrian "for a few seconds" on Saturday and told Turkey it was a mistake that wouldn't happen again. An unnamed senior US defense official said Washington doubted the incursions were an accident. (5) The Jordanian Al Bawaba news website described this weekend the Russian troop contingency in Latakia, Syria. A video appears to show the barracks where Russian soldiers are housed, with mobile kitchen units, sleeper bunks and fresh bread with "flour shipped in from Russia." And, a Reuters report in September quoted Lebanese sources saying small numbers of Russian troops were conducting military operations alongside Syrian troops. Then last week, the Russian parliament approved the use of ground forces in Syria to support President al-Assad. Yesterday, CNN reported that aerial images suggest Russian troop units have left Latakia for western Syria sites near Homs province, although CNN said there is no indication of engagement. ~~~~~ Dear readers, Putin is filling the void left by Obama's collapse into catastrophic indifference. Putin's goals? Show Russian military power as a reminder to the EU and NATO not to interfere in Ukraine or Syria. Push NATO away from eastern Turkey and prevent the creation of a no-fly zone that would slow the destabilizing refugee flow iņto Europe. Displace the US as the Middle East dominant outside power, and take back its key role in the Middle East lost when Sadat kIcked the USSR out of Egypt in 1972. Putin is also warning extremists not to attack Russia. An ambitious tough-guy plan. And, it unmasks Obama, the wannabe-President with no plan.