Monday, May 26, 2014

Yesterday Was the EU'S day of Reckoning; in November Americans Will Have the Same Chance

After Sunday's European Parliament elections - the assembly that is the legislative arm of the European Union - there are now 145 Euroskeptic, that is, anti-EU, members of the 710-member European Parliament, an historic high. In simple terms, 20% of the EU Parliament wants to disband and eliminate the EU. ~~~~~ The anti-EU results were evident all over the EU -- Hungary 15%, Austria 20%, Greece 35%, UK 29% (the outright winner over the Tories and Labor, the first time a third party has beat the UK's major parties in a national election), Denmark 27% (the winner over Denmark's major parties), The Netherlands 15%, Germany 6% (an anti-Euro currency party), but German Chancellor Merkel's conservative coalition won the election, as did the center-left coalition of Matteo Renzi, the new Italian prime minister, winning at 44%. The Italian anti-EU party won 20% of the vote. ~~~~~ But, the real shock came in France, where the Front National, considered an extreme right wing party, was the outright winner of the European Parliament elections, taking 25% of the vote. The FN went from 3 to 24 European Parliament seats in the French delegation - ahead of the conservative UMP Party of former president Nicolas Sarkozy, at 20%, and the Socialist Party of current French President François Hollande, at 13.9%. This is the first time a third party has beat both major parties in a French national election. The FN did well in the March municipal elections, taking control of 6 cities, and now is the leader in the French EU parlianentary delegation. This is French President Hollande's second big electoral loss in two months. In March his Socialist Party suffered an historic loss of mayoral elections. The French Socialist Party is in crisis meetings today. The FN has called for Hollande - whose personal positive polls hover around 20%, the lowest ever for any French president - to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale and hold new French legislative elections. The UMP is talking about trying to pull back into the conservative fold those centrist break-off parties formed around failed conservative presidential candidates. ~~~~~ What is the problem in France? The French are fed up with the Socialist government's inability to address two major problems - high taxes and high unemployment. The French pay an average of 45.9% of their income in taxes of various types, with the richest French paying 100% and more of their income in taxes - causing some of them to leave France and even renounce their citizenship. In March 2014, French unemployment reached a new record high : almost 3.35 million out of work in France, a +12% rate. President Hollande's main election pledge was to cut unemployment massively and durably; but under his government, unemployment has increased by about 140,000. The public deficit in 2014 was 4.3% of GNP, meaning that the government missed its target of 4.1%, and seems unlikely to reach the EU-imposed target of 3% in 2015. Public spending in France, among the highest levels in the world, reached 57.1% of GNP in 2013 (Figures from INSEE - the French government statistical office). Payroll taxes are at 43%, the highest in the world by far. All of France is fed up with politicians, whether socialist or conservative, and so 1 in 4 of them voted yesterday for the FN - whose platform is accused of being anti-semitic (FN founder Jean-Marie LePen is by all accounts anti-semitic but today's younger FN leaders seem not to be). The current FN message is twofold : control immigration, and leave the EU and the Euro currency in order to save France economically and to re-establish France's national identity. It is a message that resonates all over France and across most party and social lines. And the FN has captured the French youth vote, largely because they bear the brunt of high unemployment - 30% of FN voters are under 35, compared to 15% for the French conservative and socialist parties. ~~~~~ And it is the FN message that is also resonating all over a Europe alienated from an EU commission and parliament that have changed their lives fundamentally by enacting measures seen as attempts to destroy national identities and replace them with a "European" identity. Added to that is the Euro, seen as raising prices out of proportion to national salary levels and favoring Germany's industrial export-driven economy over other European economic models. The abstention rate across the EU yesterday was 57%, a warning in itself of the general disillusionment with the EU. Jean-Claude Juncker resigned last night as EU Commission president. He may be re-elected, not by EU voters, but by EU heads of state - like many other EU elections, a major disenfranchisement problem. German Chancellor Merkel called the results "regrettable." Other German ministers called the election a "serious warning." The French prime minister called them "an earthquake." Dominique Moisi of the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI) told Reuters TV : "The legitimacy of France in Europe is weakened. To function, Europe needs a strong balance between France and Germany. But France is moving the way of Italy or Greece in economic terms and moving the way of Britain in its relationship with Europe." ~~~~~ Dear readers, why spend so much space on EU parliamentary elections and French national politics? Because what is happening in Europe is the direct result of two EU political errors in judgment -- First, that governments can spend and tax forever, with no day of reckoning, as France and other EU countries are doing. Compare - the United States is enroute in 2014 to collect a record high $3 trillion in taxes, but federal expenditures will be €3.6 trillion, leaving a $600 billion hole to fill with borrowing that will raise the national debt. Second, democracies are based on voters who choose what they want from political leaders. French and other EU voters have reached the choke point about how the EU should function in their lives and what they will permit the Euro currency to do short of impoverishing them. So, they voted yesterday. It was a day of reckoning. That day of reckoning will come in November in the US, when Americans vote for their federal legislature - the House and Senate. Voters do have a powerful voice. Use yours.

6 comments:

  1. As a lifelong resident of the United States I cannot conceive how the EU was ever expecting to function. An International government over a countries government and at the very bottom of the ladder was local governments. Add to that an International currency positioned over, or optional to national currencies.

    France has a 3rd party that comes out of the west and sweeps the entire EU into an abyss of uncertainty of longevity. France that great country that gave us great rebellions against government intervention into their lives, a WW II underground that was instrumental in the defeat of Nazi Germany. Activists like Alex De Tocqueville and Joan of Arc, who although a wee bit late stood with the creators of the great experiment called the United States of America, the French a freedom loving society. How did they get sucked into the EU concept at all?

    But for this vote yesterday … “Vive la liberté de choix de l'individu, et vive la France”

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  2. Concerened CitizenMay 26, 2014 at 9:51 AM

    French and Europeans in general are frustrated by the attempts to erase borders and national culture. America faces the same problems of culture and national identity as various European countries such as France, Germany and the UK do or are right now.

    I never saw the EU theory a permanent fixture in Europe. But maybe yesterday the people of Europe woke up, and started to take their countries back from a purely socialist movement called the EU.

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  3. If yesterday's vote across the face of the EU was all about Unemployment & Debt as the pendents are all saying today. Then I hope this wave of responsibility and dutifulness continues across the Atlantic in 2014 Mid Term Elections & the 2016 Presidential Elections here in the US.

    "There does not exist an engine so corruptive of the government and so demoralizing of the nation as a public debt. It will bring on us more ruin at home than all the enemies from abroad ...” -Thomas Jefferson

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    1. Pundits not pendents - sorry

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  4. I think Americans have had enough of tax and spend and will vote appropriately.

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  5. De Oppressor LiberMay 27, 2014 at 8:26 AM

    When a population is educated to expect something for nothing, soon everyone has nothing.

    I hope the American people wake up and realize that socialism doesn't work; it just leads to big, intrusive government, more debt, high taxes and unemployment. We need more conservatives in the Congress, Senate and White House in 2014 and 2016.

    The equation of Tax, Spend, Borrow, and Spend some more can not be balanced out.

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