Tuesday, May 27, 2014
Putin and Poroshenko May Speak the Same Language, and It's not Russian
The city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine was in turmoil on Tuesday, a day after government forces stopped pro-Russia separatists from taking over the airport. Dozens were reported killed and the mayor went on television to urge residents to stay indoors. On Monday, the separatists were repelled by government forces using combat jets and helicopter gunships. AP journalists reported that they witnessed intensive gun fire throughout the day and into the night. As rising black smoke marked the fighting, officials shut down Donetsk airport and nearby streets to traffic. The Donetsk mayor said 40 people, including two civilians, were killed in Monday's fighting. Rebel leaders said the deaths could reach 100 in Monday's fighting, adding that many bodies had not been recovered because they were in areas under government control. He said the morgue at Kalinin was too small to hold all the bodies and authorities were searching for refrigerator trucks pending identification of the dead. The separatists also asserted that up to half of the dead could be civilians, the Russian ITAR-Tass news agency reported. Vladislav Seleznyov, a spokesman for Kiev's anti-terrorist operation, wrote on his Facebook account that the military presented an ultimatum early on Monday afternoon to unknown armed men who had occupied the airport to lay down their arms. The airstrikes began when the insurgents did not comply. The battles in Donetsk came just as billionaire candy magnate Petro Poroshenko claimed victory in Sunday's presidential election, and there was speculation that the separatists were attempting to seize the Donetsk airport to prevent the new president ftom visiting eastern Ukraine as he promised to do. ~~~~~ In related news, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said Tuesday it had lost contact with a four-person monitoring team last heard from outside Donetsk, the site of fierce battles between Ukrainian troops and insurgents. In April, pro-Russia separatists took a similar OSCE team hostage and held them for a week. And, separatist attacks continued early Tuesday when a group of unidentified men, said to be Russian, stormed Donetsk's main ice-hockey arena - which had been set to host the 2015 world championships - and set it ablaze, according to the mayor's office. In the neighboring Luhansk region, the Ukrainian Border Guards Service said that its officers engaged in a gunbattle with a group of gunmen who were trying to break through the border from Russia. It said one intruder was wounded and the border guards seized several vehicles loaded with Kalashnikov assault rifles, rocket grenade launchers and explosives. The Border Guard also reported that as many as 40 trucks filled with troops were lined up on the Russian side of the Russia-Ukraine border, ready to enter eastern Ukraine.
Speaking at a televised government session on Tuesday, Vitaly Yarema, a deputy prime minister in the interim Ukraine cabinet said the "anti-terrorist operation" in eastern Ukraine will go on "until all the militants are annihilated." ~~~~~ Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov warned the newly elected Ukraine President Poroshenko against trying to win a quick military victory before his inauguration, saying that it would be "unlikely to create favorable conditions for a hospitable welcome in the Donetsk region." Lavrov promised that Russia will be Poroshenko's "serious and reliable partner" if he moved to negotiate an end to hostilities. Poroshenko, known for his pragmatism, supports building strong ties with Europe but also has stressed the importance of mending relations with Moscow. Upon claiming victory, he said his first step as president would be to visit the troubled east. He said he hoped Russia would support his efforts to establish stability and that he wanted to hold talks with Moscow. Lavrov welcomed Poroshenko's promise to negotiate with people in the east and said Moscow was ready for direct talks with Poroshenko - without the United States or the European Union as mediators. But Ukraine's acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Ukraine has no intention of talking to Russia directly : "Bilateral talks without the presence of the United States and the European Union do not seem possible under current conditions," he said. Moscow has denied accusations by the authorities in Kiev and the West that it has fomented the insurgency in eastern Ukraine. While Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula of Crimea in March, he has stonewalled the eastern separatists' appeal to join Russia. Russia, however, has kept pushing Ukraine to decentralize its government, which would give more power to the regions and allow Moscow to keep eastern Ukraine in its sphere of influence. Putin said before Sunday's presidential election that Moscow would accept the election results and engage in dialogue with the winner. But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday: "The question of a visit to Russia by Poroshenko is not being considered and is not being discussed through diplomatic or any other channels." He again called on Poroshenko to stop military operations in eastern Ukraine mmediately and implement the roadmap for peace negotiated in Geneva on 17 April. Speaking at a news conference in Moscow, he said a "real war" was under way in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The regions declared independence after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in the wake of the removal of Ukraine's pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovich. ~~~~~ Dear readers, Vladimir Putin has wasted no time after Sunday's election in calling for the Ukrainian army to immediately end its operation against pro-Russian separatists, after dozens were killed in bloody clashes Monday on the order of the new Ukraine president. Since Sunday's presidential election, the Russian President also has increased pressure on Kiev to start a dialogue with separatist leaders as fighting continues. The Kremlin said President Putin had spoken to Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi (Renzi will assume the 6-month rotating presidency of the EU in June) by telephone and “underscored the need for an immediate halt to the punitive military operation in the southeastern regions and the establishment of peaceful dialogue between Kiev and representatives of the regions." Russia said it started to withdraw troops stationed along its border with Ukraine since the start of the crisis but Nato and Ukraine Border Guard units say many remain. The only 'given' in the Ukraine crisis is that it will not be settled without the agreement of Vladimir Putin. Even the Swedish foreign minister told CNN on Monday that there is no way to take Crimea back from Putin. So, we are faced with a new Ukraine president who is able to be more aggressive than the interim government. But he is saddled with an army much too small to successfully take on Russia's. And he has as allies a Europe and America whose only agreed tactic is economic sanctions against Russia. Putin has already turned this into a new long-term gas supply contract with China. So, not only has Vladimir Putin frozen the West into inaction in Ukraine, he has parried his position into a lucrative deal with China, and perhaps he has thus opened the door for a new Russia-China strategic alliance. But, it may be that the election of Petro Poroshenko as Ukraine's president will have an unintended positive effect - Vladimir Putin is used to dealing with billionaires - he created some when he turned loose the Russian oligarchs to strip Russian industry bare and re-form it for their and his benefit. Petro Poroshenko is a billionaire. Perhaps he and Putin speak a common language - money.
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Germany may be the key to the Ukrainian-Russian problem(s). Germany is also probably the key to most problems in Eastern Europe.
ReplyDeleteFor the most part Germans seem to have forgotten their experience under Soviet occupation of East Germany and the joy that accompanied the fall of the Berlin Wall. Money spent lavishly on influential German politicians and industrialists also buys political blindness.
Regrettably, Germans seem unaware of the great suffering they inflicted on Ukraine during WWII and the fact that they were nourished back to economic health through the Marshall Plan, the European Economic Community (the forerunner of the EU) and the security that West Germany had through belonging to NATO. Ukraine had no such assistance either after WWII or after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Sadly, Germans feel no sense of obligation to present day Ukraine nor have they adequately compensated Ukraine for the devastating losses of WWII. Ukraine will have to do a better job of making Germans aware of historical truth, and hope that it turns into support for Ukraine over Russia.
Ah! Yes - the international language of encroachment (at many levels).
ReplyDelete“The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding.”
DeleteLouis D. Brandeis quotes (American Supreme Court Justice)
We keep examining and re-examining the why’s and wherefores’ of how to stop country “A” (in this case Russia) from tromping all over country “B” (Ukraine) when the United States of American under the direction of Obama cannot even protect a CIA Station Chief in Afghanistan. Station Chiefs are the most identity protected individuals in the CIA. In fact sometimes people who work for the Station Chief do not know he is the Station Chief.
DeleteUkraine you may want to rethink your choice for a protecting force.
I would expect them both to speak the language of "money". It well may be the only language a billionaire known sand one that an old war horse from the KGB would like to have as his primary language.
ReplyDeleteAnd I agree with Casey Pops that is what they both understand and probably worship.
But encroachment into the lives, well being, security, and daily safety of peasant citizenry is criminal.
But no matter what their common thread is, the overall situation in the Ukraine is direly serious and we certainly need better qualified leaders on both sides to insure a ramping down of the issues. Issues that should be solved by Ukrainians and only Ukrainians - just as Obama said just today about the internal problems in Afghanistan.
Poroshenko has a long road ahead of him: he will have to handle tricky and combustible issues like federalization, the status of the Russian language, and the orientation of Ukraine’s foreign policy. He will still need to contend with the pro-Russian separatists in Lugansk and Donetsk all the while trying to repair Ukrainian-Russian relations without alienating the pro-Western majorities in the former Hapsburg provinces.
ReplyDeleteIf any of Poroshenko attempts work then the Obama administration ought to attempt a very limited reset with Russia sometime after the mid-term elections this fall. Such a reset might include the revival of a few, but certainly not all, of the working groups of the now-defunct Bilateral Commission. A policy of limited engagement would be a sensible policy for the remainder of the Obama era.
Perhaps the Obama administration will finally learn that we need to deal with the Russia that is, not the Russia we wish it to be.
Before the US gets too much further down the road in it's involvement with Russia & the Ukrainian people they should remember this little verse I was taught in Grad School:
ReplyDelete"The objective of all dedicated Foreign Service employees is to thoroughly analyze all situations, anticipate all problems prior to their occurrence, have answers for these problems, and move swiftly to solve these problems when called upon. However, when you are up to your butt in alligators, it is difficult to remember that your initial objective was and is to drain the swamp."
Just this morning at a commencement exercise at West Point Military Academy Obama uttered these idiotic words … “US must lead globally but show restraint.” So is this support for his lead from behind mentality or is this I’ll pick and choose who & where we decide to protect against aggressors like Russia, China, BOKO Harem, Iran, etc.
ReplyDeleteThe man gets up each and every morning, sticks his finger into the air to see which way the winds of popularity are blowing. I wake up each day and think to myself what will he do today. The worse president-Jimmy Carter- never made me feel this abandoned and insignificant.
Times are bad for most nearly everyone right now, but having this man as our president makes life so excruciating.