Will Putin Force Obama to Abandon NATO?

The United States continues to warn Russia to retreat from Ukraine or suffer another round of financial sanctions. This may seem inevitable, since military force has long since been ruled out, bizarre as that may be. But, the US has another problem - trying to get an agreement for stronger sanctions from a reluctant Europe, which is trying to balance its desire to punish Moscow against its fear of its own economic hit from the effects of a new, harsher round of Western trade sanctions. Economists say the US will appear to be weak without EU support, because Europe is Russia's largest trading partner and therefore has huge sway over Russia's already shaky economy. But Europe is thus far hesitant to issue sanctions against Russia that would weaken its own financial stability and risk its largest source of energy. President Barack Obama already has signed orders that would allow the US to sanction key Russian industries, and European Union foreign ministers will meet again this week to try to decide what new penalties should be put in place if Moscow continues to ignore the West's warnings. ~~~~~ And as if that hurdle were not enough for an already self-weakened American President, fighting intensified in eastern Ukraine on Sunday, claiming lives on both sides in confrontations between heavily armed pro-Russian paramilitaries and Ukrainian forces. Ukraine launched an operation on Sunday to clear pro-Russian separatists from state buildings in the east, with deaths reported on both sides as Kiev fights back what it calls an act of aggression by Moscow. Ukraine interior minister Arsen Avakov called Sunday's government actions an "anti- terrorist" operation. "There were dead and wounded on both sides," he said. The Russian news agency RIA reported that one pro-Moscow activist was killed. NATO described the appearance in eastern Ukraine of men with specialized Russian weapons and identical uniforms, but without insignia, similar to what was previously worn by Moscow's troops when they seized Crimea, as a "grave development." NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen expressed concern about similarities in some of the separatists' appearance to that of the Russian troops who seized control in Crimea and called on Russia to pull back its large number of troops, including special forces, from the area around Ukraine's border. Rasmussen said : "Any further Russian military interference, under any pretext, will only deepen Russia's international isolation." Moscow says the troops are on normal manoeuvres. Ukraine faces multiple rebellions in the east that it says are inspired and directed by the Kremlin. But action to dislodge the armed militants risks tipping the stand-off into a new, highly dangerous phase since Moscow has warned it will protect the region's Russian-speakers if they come under attack. ~~~~~ Kiev accuses Moscow of trying to increase the violence and chaos in Ukraine, a former Soviet republic it once ruled, in order to undermine the legitimacy of presidential elections on May 25, which aim to stabilize the country after months of turmoil. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Kiev was "demonstrating its inability to take responsibility for the fate of the country" and warned that any use of force against Russian speakers "would undermine the potential for cooperation," including talks due to be held on Thursday between Russia, Ukraine, the United States and the European Union. Lavrov said it was Ukraine's Western-leaning government, viewed by the Kremlin as illegitimate, that was feeding tensions. Former Ukraine prime minister Julia Timoshenko said the unrest in eastern Ukraine was the work of Russian state security agents, designed to wrongfoot the EU and United States, which have imposed sanctions over the Crimean annexation : "There is an ulterior motive for this aggression, because in a few days there will be big negotiations in Geneva which Russia, out of weakness because of financial sanctions, asked for," she was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency. Russia’s foreign ministry called the planned Ukraine military operation a “criminal order” and said the West should bring its allies in Ukraine’s government under control, suggesting that it is up to the West to prevent violence in Ukraine. ~~~~~ Senator John McCain said on a US Sunday TV news program that President Obama is abandoning the Ukrainian people's fate to the Russian troops amassing on Russia's border with Ukraine. McCain described the tactic as "shameful," blamng the clashes in eastern Ukraine on Obama's inaction when Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops to the Crimean peninsula, before annexing it. McCain said there is no doubt Putin is behind the current action : "The question is now, what do we do, and what does he do?" McCain said. Nothing "meaningful or important" was done by the United States during the Crimean action, according to McCain, who said Putin was encouraged that the United States placed sanctions only on a few Russian leaders and businessmen. But, now, McCain said, the United States must supply weapons to Ukraine so that they can defend themselves. Although they did not fight in Crimea, McCain believes Ukrainians will defend themselves if given firepower now that Russia appears to be behind moves to sweep up eastern Ukraine and make it a Russian ally. McCain is a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who has traveled to Ukraine recently and plans to return. The Senator said Russia has been described as a country with a first-world military and a third-world economy. But McCain called Russia "a gas station masquerading as a country." ~~~~~ Dear readers, no one will benefit from a war in Ukraine, with its potential to spill over into eastern Europe, including EU countries that are also members of NATO. Such an enlargement of hostilities would necessarily activate NATO military action and that would force President Obama to decide whether the United States under his presidency will honor its North Atlantic Treaty obligations. Europe is not Syria or Afghanistan. Europe and NATO are the lynchpins in the post-World War II Western alliance. The creation of the NATO military presence was meant to protect Europe and America from rogue state aggression. At that time, the rogue was the Soviet Union. Today, the rogue is Russia under Vladimir Putin. Not much difference, one might add. President Obama may choose not to act in Ukraine, but he must realize that in so doing he risks even greater US military involvement in eastern Europe if he continues to believe that economic sanctions will stop Putin's push through Ukraine and into eastern Europe. Surely not even Barack Obama would effectively withdraw America from NATO and sit back watching as world order collapses. I sincerely hope that I am not whistling in the dark.