An Unruffled Kiev Faces the Russian Bear

Today, as it had warned, Ukraine launched its military operation against pro-Russian separatists in the eastern region close to the Russia border, despite warnings from Moscow not to interfere with the insurgents. "It will be conducted step by step, responsibly, cautiously," Ukraine President Oleksandr Turchynov told the country's parliament shortly before the operation began. "The aim of these actions is to protect the citizens of Ukraine, to stop terror, to stop criminality, to stop attempts to tear Ukraine to pieces." The first action was the retaking by Ukraine troops of a small airfield near the town Kramatorsk, in the East Ukraine region of Donetsk, where the separatists began their occupation of Ukraine public buildings a week ago. Russian state television reported that as many as 11 people had been killed, but there has been no confirmation of any casualties. The shooting appear to have been warning shots into the air, according to media reports. The mayor of Kramatorsk said Ukrainian troops had taken control of the airfield. Kramatorsk 100 miles from the Russian border, where Russian military troops, tank columns and fighter jets are based. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Ukraine that he has the approval of the Russian parliament to intervene in Ukraine to protect pro-Russian Ukrainians, and that he may intercede in the unrest to protect "ethnic Russians," although it is unclear who needs protection, since it is ethnic Russians who have been the ones forcing their way into government buildings in 10 cities. The dissidents occupying the buildings demand that a referendum be held to vote on seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia, and they are urging Russian forces to invade as they did in Crimea. The Russian province of Crimea was overtaken militarily by Putin, who annexed it into Russia despite phone calls with President Obama who warned him of repercussions should he do so. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen met today in Luxembourg with European Union defense ministers and told reporters he was "deeply concerned" by the developments in Ukraine. President Obama again spoke by phone with Putin on Monday, asking him to pull back troops from Ukraine's border and to persuade armed pro-Russian groups to leave the buildings they have seized. Putin's office said he told Obama that the protests "are the result of the Kiev authorities' unwillingness and inability to take into account the interests of the Russian and Russian-speaking population." President Turchynov accused Russia of fueling the unrest in East Ukraine by infiltrating the country with Russian special forces who are aiding separatists. Russian speaking masked men, well-armed and in matching uniforms bearing no insignias, have been seen helping the occupiers build barricades to prevent Ukraine troops from forcing them out. "Russia wants the whole south and east of Ukraine to be engulfed by fire," Turchynov said. Ukraine's government has said that it is willing to consider granting more autonomy to regions in the east but not independence. Half the people in the east are ethnic Russians. But in polls, a majority of people in the east and south say they do not want to become part of Russia. A majority of Crimeans responded the same way. "I'm not happy because of these events," Vladimir Ivaschenko, who lives in Donetsk, told USA Today. "I'd like to live in a normal Ukraine and without any influence from Russia or from west side. It seems like Russian tanks are going to enter Ukraine. Separatists already called for Russian help," he said. Others feel the central government in Kiev has not handled the ethnic question properly and is to blame for the unrest. An AP journalist reported seeing at least 14 armored personnel carriers with Ukrainian flags, one helicopter and military trucks parked 24 miles north of Slovyansk, which is also 100 miles from the Russian border. There was other heavy military equipment nearby, along with at least seven busloads of government troops in black military fatigues. "We are awaiting the order to move on Slovyansk," said one Ukrainian soldier. Two of the helicopters loaded with troops later took off and headed for Slovyansk. A CNN journalist reported that he encountered a large Ukrainian military column traveling on roads leading from the city of Donetsk toward other towns in the region on Tuesday. The column included more than 20 armored personnel carriers, along with support vehicles and a helicopter circling overhead. Roads into Slovyansk, an East Ukraine city that has come under more secure control of the occupying gunmen since Saturday, were dotted with checkpoints. One gunman at the entrance into town was waving a Russian flag. Another bore a sign reading "If we don't do it, nobody will." ~~~~~ But holding to the Putin story line, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov criticized Kiev for using force against the pro-Russian protesters, saying Moscow could walk out of an international conference on the Ukrainian crisis scheduled for Thursday in Geneva. "You can't send in tanks and at the same time hold talks, and the use of force would sabotage the opportunity offered by the four-party negotiations in Geneva," Lavrov said at a press conference Tuesday held after talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Julia Timoshenko's evaluation that Putin is pushing hard for talks because his actions in Ukraine, answered with Western sanctions, are hurting the Russian econony was partially supported today as the Russian benchmark Micex Index of equities declined 2.5% to 1,311.01 -- the latest fall in a 9.3% retreat since the takeover of Crimea started on March 1. The ruble weakened 0.5% to 36.1500 against the US Dollar, extending its drop since March 1 to 0.7%. But, Ukraine is also facing economic stress. Ukraine's central bank increased its benchmark interest rate from 7% to 14.5% to prevent massive inflation due to the record lows of its currency. And Germany is coming to the aid of Ukraine as it tries to deal with the threat of Russia's state-owned gas industry to cut off supplies to Ukraine - German utility company RWE AG on Tuesday started supplying gas to Ukraine via Poland. Meanwhile, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Facebook that “blood was spilled once again in Ukraine. There’s a sense in the country that a civil war could break out.” And in Washington, when pressed on whether the US is considering sending equipment such as armored vests or night-vision goggles to Ukraine, White House press secretary Jay Carney said only that lethal equipment, which would include weapons, is “not something we’re currently considering.” Economic aid for Ukraine is the main focus for the US, he said. And Poland’s Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said today in an interview with Polish TVN24 that Putin has “a credibility problem” in denying Russian troops are in Ukraine after similar denials in Crimea proved to be false. Sikorski said that the US is “seriously considering” stationing ground forces in Poland as part of an effort to bolster North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces in eastern Europe. ~~~~~ Dear readers, as the situation in Ukraine continues to escalate toward an armed confrontation between pro-West and pro-Russian Ukrainians, it is becoming clear that Vladimir Putin is playing with the nerves of the Kiev government, hoping the interim leaders will crack and attack in East Ukraine before the May 25 presidential election. This would serve Putin well -- giving him reason to install Russian troops on Ukraine territory and throwing the democratic future of Ukraine into disarray. So far, Kiev's leaders have been circumspect in the face of Putin's Russian Bear agression, taking back their public buildings but avoiding confrontation with the dissidents or their Russian plainclothes keepers. It would be helpful if the presence of NATO forces along the Polish and Baltic eastern borders were more evident. It would also help if Presin thedent Obama's position about military aid to Ukraine did not sound so much like his position when the Syrian conflict began. We know where that led, but eastern Europe cannot be abandoned as Syria was so shamefully cast aside by Mr. Obama.