The Battle for Damascus

The Syrian Minister of Defense, army chief adjutant Daoud Rajha, was killed today in a suicide attack on the building that houses the very tight national security offices in Damascus. Rajha was said by Syrian TV to be Christian.
Syrian state television confirmed that others killed in the attack in the center of Damascus were the vice minister of defense, General Assef Chawkat, who was the brother-in-law of president Bashar al-Assad.
Interior minister Mohammed Ibrahim al-Chaar was wounded, along with a reported “several” others.
The group that was targeted was in a meeting on security matters when the suicide bombs exploded.
This is the first time in the 16 months that the Syrian people have been in revolt against the al-Assad regime that high functionaries close to al-Assad have been killed.
A Syrian politician noted that “It is the state and all its institutions that are now targeted and the war has opened against all Syrians.”
The Free Syria Army spokesman announced yesterday that the battle for Damascus has begun.” It seems today was the day chosen, perhaps deliberately since the UN is scheduled to vote today on further sanctions against the regime and its leaders.
Russia has already announced its attention to veto the resolution. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia would not allow a resolution to be adopted that supports “revolution.”
Chinese president Hu Jintao met with UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon yesterday but the topic of Syria was not discussed during the public press conference.
Damascus suburbs and peripheral neighborhoods have come under severe attack this weekend, and al-Assad forces have responded with helicopter gunship fire in civilian areas. Rising smoke columns can bee seen in TV footage coming from Damascus.
A reported 48 regime soldiers have been killed since Saturday. But the London-based Syria human rights observation group says that at least 60 soldiers have been killed since Monday.
Meanwhile, Russia has repaired and redelivered to the al-Assad regime damaged Mi-25 helicopters. Russia has also disabled the navigation system that makes it possible to locate Russian military ships at sea, according to Interfax news agency.
A part of the UN Security Council resolution will probably be supported and pass - that allowing for a 30-day technical extension of the mandate for the monitors now in Syria to stay there.
So, the Battle for Damascus begins and Russia and China seem to be as blind as al-Assad as to the coming collapse of the regime in Syria.
French TV news reported tonight “on the ground” from Beirut that diplomatic and military circles believe there are five possibilities remaining for al-Assad and his cronies:
1. He flees the country with his family to a safe haven and the military are left to try to negotiate the end of the crisis.
2. He and his Alawite allies become even more stubborn, continuing to bomb and attack for as long as they can, believing that with the support of Russian arms they will win.
3. There is a military coup d’etat against al-Assad with the army generals and senior officers trying to prove that they are not the problem, thus leaving the way clear for their negotiation of some sort of “safe passage” beyond al-Assad.
4. Iran swoops in and takes over Syria.
5. In a desperate final move, al-Assad unleashes chemical weapons against not the rebels but Israel, threatening to kill off the Jewish nation unless he is left alone to rule Syria as he chooses.

I would add a sixth possibility: things move so fast in Damascus that army leaders and soldiers lose their nerve and flee to wherever they have friends and money, and al-Assad is left to fend for himself, much like Saddam Hussein was.
As for the possibility of a chemical weapons attack against Israel, the French seem to know that the Israelis are already preparing for such an eventuality and that they are frightened that al-Assad will use this card against them as pawns. If this is the case, it would go a long way to explaining the unprecedented build-up of US ships and presence in the Gulf. They may be there for a purpose that has more to do with Israel’s future than with merely threatening Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.