Monday, July 9, 2012

Iran's Ploy in the Stait of Hormuz Brings Swift US Response

It seems to have passed almost unnoticed because of the 4th of July celebrations, the mess in Syria and the continuing crises in financial markets in Europe and around the world, but something else happened last week.
The United States quietly moved significant new military forces into the Persian Gulf to attempt to stop any idea among the Iranian leadership that they could try to close the Strait of Hormuz as a response to new sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic.
The US forces are meant not only to patrol and keep open the Strait of Hormuz but also to provide strike capability if needed against Iran, the New York Times reported.
The American action came after the European Union imposed a severe new oil embargo against Iran in an effort to force Iran to comply with international requirements in its uranium enrichment program.
Iran’s response to the new embargo was to announce that it would consider legislation to disrupt marine traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by blocking oil tankers on their way to countries that no longer take Iranian oil because of the embargo.
The increase in US forces includes minesweepers, doubled from 4 to 8, and stealth jets, including additional F-22 stealth warplanes and older F-15 aircraft sent to two Gulf bases. Carrier strike groups are always on patrol in the region.
The US Navy has also moved a converted amphibious transport and docking vessel, the Ponce, into the Persian Gulf, where it will serve as a “logistics and operations hub for mine-clearing,” according to the Times, and has a medical suite, helicopter deck, and bunks for combat troops.
In addition, even though U.S. troops have been withdrawn from Iraq, the Pentagon still maintains a force equal to a combat brigade in Kuwait.
Things are quiet for the time being, and perhaps the rapid action of the US military helped convince Iran to reconsider before it lost face once again, as happened in 2011 when it tried to harass American ships in the Gulf area.
On thing is sure. The Gulf region remains a critical point of confrontation between the Iranians, who now have few friends left because of the Syrian insurrection and its strains on Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas. Iran needs to show “leadership” if it hopes to hang on to its influence. But, it is difficult for Iran to pretend to be able to confront the American naval presence in the Gulf, so its show is all words for the most part.
This is not to say that the balance cannot change. As an example. Kofi Annan, after admitting that his earlier peace plans had failed, met with Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on Monday and “agreed” to take an as-yet secret proposal to the insurgents for consideration. The immediate reaction from the rebel spokesman was that Annan should not have gone to Damascus at all but worked with them.
This may seem unrelated to Iran’s Strait of Hormuz threat, but the point is that al-Assad is not gone, or under arrest, or even seriously constrained within Syria. He continues to be able to convince the UN that he is the Syrian head of government, and so he buys time and undermines rebel cohesion.
This is just the sort of thing that could re-strengthen Iran’s position in Syria, and al-Assad knows it. And with Iranian help, who knows how long Assad could hold out or even win. And, if al-Assad stays, Iran’s threat and Russia’s destabilizing presence in the Gulf become more entrenched.

4 comments:

  1. I agree whole heartily with all you present. Especially the last two paragraphs. The US and Europe seem to be flogging around with what to do next. We are still under the belief that that sanctions will do something. They haven's solved the problem after these many years, and the horizon doesn't seen to bright if that is going to be our main thrust in the middle east.

    Assad seems to not be leaving after 18 months of all out civil war, I fear that Iran some day stops her threats and resorts to action. Russian is Russia all over again. The USSR should have been totally broken up after Pres. Reagan's stunning moves.

    I don't think of myself as a war monger. Yet if there is going to be war let it be on our terms. We MUST protect Israel. That is cast in stone. And that may also be our Achilles Heel in the Middle East.

    "The first army that arrives at the battlefield usually wins" - Sun Tzu ( a loose interpretation I believe.

    You've again hit the nail on it's head. Good marksmanship 225.

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  2. To paraphrase "The Seven Dwarfs", Hi Ho, Hi Ho, It's off to War we go...

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  3. With a rouge nation like Iran this one good be a lot more than anyone would wish for or want after it gets started.

    If we don't find something to replace wars, we may replace ourselves with something, and it won;t be pretty. Let's never forget Nazi Germany and how very close they cam to world domination.

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  4. Eleven, count them 11 RUSSIAN WAR SHIPS (including2 flat tops) just docked at some port in Syria to refuel and restock9???) after just 3 days out of Russia.

    Russia sue has some fuel gusslers (SP) and a bunch of very hungry sailors and soldiers that they can eat the supply store empty in three (count them ) 3 days.

    American diplomacy is alive and well in - let me think on that. I'm not being nasty. But show me a success for the current administration's foreign policy. Our current Sen. of State can't spell diplomacy or UN Ambassador is so ll equipped to be there it's pathetic. Ambassadors in war torn countries in the middle east whose last success was an article in the NY Times Sunday Op-Ed page.

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