While Waiting for the South Carolina Vote, Let's Look at the Latest French Presidential Election Poll

There’s nothing to say about the GOP presidential debate last night. Tomorrow the Republicans of South Carolina will do the talking. Will they divide between Santorum and Gingrich, leaving the road clear for Romney? Or will they decide to support Romney and leave the contenders who preach their conservatism behind. We’ll know by tomorrow night. One thing we can probably predict today is that Ron Paul will continue to hold together his libertarian following and get 15% of the vote.

But, while all this is going on in American presidential politics, the French have been going toward their own presidential showdown, following a poll taken early this week that reveals some rather interesting trends.

President Sarkozy receives a positive opinion as president from only 32% of the French electorate. And the split between the right and left is even more pronounced - 77% of his own conservative party support him while 0% of the left socialist parties support him. That’s not an error - 0%.

President Sarkozy’s prime minister, François Fillon, receives a 47% favorable rating against 51% negative.

What is interesting here is that Fillon is the titular head of the government which has been so roundly attacked for its monetary leadership with Germany vis-à-vis the Euro and Greece, as well as for the unemployment figures in France and the leaking away of jobs to other countries. So, one would think he’d be losing favorability but instead it is Sarkozy, theoretically more removed from the day-to-day decision-making, although he has been a very active president when compared to past French presidents,  who is losing ground in the polls.

The revelation is that the moderate conservatives, in the form of François Bayrou are now leading in the polls, with 51% of those polled saying that he should have a larger role in government. Whether this can translate into votes in April is still to be seen. But, if we consider that his party got 3% of the vote in the last presidential election, it is quite remarkable and an indication of the depth of French dissatisfaction with government.

The Socialist Party candidate, François Hollande, is just behind Bayrou at 50%.

Sarkozy’s Minister for Foreign affairs, Alain Juppé, an old hand in Gaullist French politics, sits at 44%, followed by Martine Aubrey, the Socialist Party chairperson who withdrew after being beaten by Hollande in Socialist Party caucuses, at 43%.  

Marine Le Pen, the extreme right candidate, received a 43% favorable rating.

What seems clear is that President Sarkozy, while the leader of the largest political faction in France, has some work to do before the election rolls around. He started this week by meeting with union leaders and then announcing a new program push to reduce unemployment from its current 10% level. Will that be enough, given the fact that 6 out of 10 French polled say they favor a victory by Hollande over Sarkozy in April and believe that will be the outcome? 

As always, the presidential election first ballot in April will have a lot to say about who wins the presidency in the second ballot in May.

For Sarkozy, it is Bayrou who is the danger, along with Marine Le Pen. But, there are many small groups on the ballot for the French left and their splintering effect could deal a blow to Hollande, leaving the road open for a populist Socialist candidate or Le Pen to face Sarkozy in the May ballot.

For more on the French elections, see my blog of January 8^th.

This latest poll was taken on January 13^th.