Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Let's Think Seriously about Beating Obama

Mitt Romney has won decisively in New Hampshire - 40% of the vote.
The rest of the Republican field, and the Democrats, are trying to say this is not a significant victory. But, it is. Because Romney is competing against 5 other media-hyped candidates, as well as more than 30 candidates for president altogether on the New Hampshire primary ballot - that's right, more than 30. Romney stood his ground against all of them.
Now, the battle shifts to South Carolina, a real GOP stronghold where the Republican candidate is usually named.
Here, the problem will be the same : Romney-bashing in violation of Reagan's 11th commandment about not speaking ill of other Republicans. His GOP rivals, although it is now clear they have little chance of unseating Romney, are going to do their level best to destroy him with negative campaign ads. The effect? It will be a close race in November and Obama will have a better chance of winning by using the words of unsuccessful GOP candidates to bash Romney even more.
This will hurt the Republican Party and the conservative cause far beyond the 2012 election. Those of you who remember the Goldwater campaign and its divisive result for the GOP will understand. It took 16 years and the appearance of Ronald Reagan to heal the wounds between conservative and moderate Republicans caused by the attacks each faction made on the other faction. In 16 years from 2012, America will be a European-model socialist state if the Obama Democrats continue. So, let's get serious.
As Dave Gergen, former Reagan and Bush and Clinton advisor and the best of all the political analysts on CNN or anywhere else for that matter, said last night that there are two possible scenarios in South Carolina. First, Gingrich will continue and strengthen the attack against Romney in his ads and this will force South Carolinians to think about a more conservative choice than Romney. Second, Texas Governor Rick Perry will add his own negative ads aimed at Romney, and his credentials might make him a potential coalescing figure around the perception that Romney is too moderate.
But, the bottom line is this : Romney will win in South Carolina. This is clear. But, as long as his rivals have the money to continue their campaigns, he will not get more than 50% of the vote. This is because he is facing too many opponents. And, as long as those 4 or 5 opponents are there, Romney will look weaker than he really is. But, IF...if GOP conservatives in South Carolina focus on and vote for one of Romney's opponents (only Perry or Paul seem to have the campaign organization and money clout to make this happen), there could be a real battle. This would mean that the 50% line would be attainable (because of fewer candidates) and we will see if the Republican Party is really going to support Romney into November, or not.
My opinion - there will be no groundswell to pick on one conservative candidate and beat Romney in South Carolina. Perry and Gingrich will not do much better than 10-15% of the vote, maximum. Paul will get his usual devoted 17%. Romney will again hit 40%, but this time, I think it will be at the expense of Santorum and Huntsman, who will lose bigtime (not more than 2-3%), so we will see them either bow out after South Carolina or go down in flames in Florida.
After Florida, Romney is the nominee. The super Tuesday primaries in April will only confirm this.
My question - why don't the rest of the candidates make peace with Romney, ask for what they want (cabinet positions, Vice President, etc.) and thereby give Romney the luxury of taking his message to America in the months ahead of the Democratic gearing-up. After all, the GOP rivals will get nothing if Obama is re-elected. So, why postpone the inevitable nomination of Romney and jeopardize the November victory?
This would leave only Ron Paul to deal with in the rest of the GOP primaries. It is clear he does not want to leave the GOP to make a third-party run this time. But, what Paul does want is to have muscle vis-à-vis the naming of the Vice President and the platform at the nominating convention in Tampa. He will have muscle because he will take with him a bundle of delegates. Romney will have to deal with Paul late one evening in Tampa. And Romney will be successful.
So, let's get on with it - the voters of South Carolina know the goal is to beat Obama, not defeat Romney. Let's help them make it happen. After all, a recent poll shows that for 33% of Americans, their worst fear is that Obama will be re-elected.

NOTE to Donald Trump : If you want to be the real power in the GOP, turn your attention to forcing peace and weeding out weak candidates before it is too late. You can do it, Donald, and perhaps no one else can.  

1 comment:

  1. If it wasn't pouring the rain, I'd be heading out and knocking on my neighbors' doors to vote on the 21st and make sure it is for Mitt Romney...that's who I'm voting for. I liked Hermie, but push come to shove and I would had to have voted Romney. Why? He can win in November and that's all that matters...PERIOD!!!

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