The 2012 French Presidential Election is a Portrait of post-WWII French Politics

The French press and TV are all talking about the latest presidential poll taken on 4-6 January among French registered voters for the April-May presidential election. The results have a margin of error of between 1-5 and 4%.

Who won?

First, you should note that French elections are held in two rounds unless someone takes more than 50% of the vote in the first round. In the second round, the best two have a play-off.

First Round Poll Results

Socialist François Hollande - 28% (up 0.5% from the poll in December)

Conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy - 26% (up 2%)

Far Right Front National Marine Le Pen - 19% (down 1%)

Centrist Conservative François Bayrou - 12% (up 1%)

A group of special interest candidates, Greens and others, garnered 14.5% of the votes in the poll.

Second Round Poll Results

If the Conservative Sarkozy has to face the Socialist Hollande in the second round, Hollande would win with 54% (down 2%) to Sarkozy’s 46% (up 2%).

I suppose we might conclude that the Socialists will win the election and take the French presidency for the second time since the Fifth Republic was created in 1958. But, that might not be the case.

First, the Socialist Hollande has been on the campaign trail virtually alone for almost two months, while President Sarkozy has chosen to hold off on launching his campaign until after the holiday season.

Second, President Sarkozy has added 2% to his favorability poll rating while Hollande has lost 0.5% of his favorability.

And, above all, since 1958, there has been only one Socialist president in France - François Mitterrand, who is a unique figure in French 20^th century politics, and who forged the leftist coalition that elected him, through almost 30 years of effort. Mitterrand did something no other Socialist has been able to do - unite the French left. Of the 14.5% of “others” winning mention in the latest poll, at least 10% are leftist candidates. So, while conservatives hold together, the left does not, and this has prevented them from winning the French presidency.

One big question, and puzzle, for Hollande is to figure out how to repeat Mitterrand’s successful coalition.  It may not be possible, because the left has no large blocks today as it did in 1980 when Mitterrand was elected. The best example of this is the French Communist Party (note to my American readers - the French Communist movement was and is more interested in worker rights and distribution of the means of economic production than it ever was in the Soviet version of communism). The Communist Party controlled 3-5% of the voting block in 1980, but it scarcely exists today outside labor union movements. So, there are many fewer power block leaders for Hollande to negotiate a deal with.

As for President Sarkozy and the Conservatives - the French swallow hard and vote conservative, which for them means Gaullist.

Make no mistake, the French conservatives change the name of their party from time to time to suit the changing coalitions they form, but it is still the child of General de Gaulle. The French consider him to be their post-WWII political savior and father. Here, Sarkozy has one great advantage.

Today, François Hollande laid a wreath at the tomb of President Mitterrand, perhaps trying to create an aura around the great Socialist that will rub off on him as votes. This is far, far from certain.

I believe that President Sarkozy’s real challenge comes from the far right, in the Front National’s candidate, Marine Le Pen, the daughter of the party’s founder, who has been a mythic although divisive figure in French politics since the end of the Second World War.

If unemployment stagnates at 10%, if the Euro looks like it will collapse, if France loses her AAA debt rating, if Germany cannot be brought to see the French point of view about how to save the Eurozone and the Euro currency - then, Le Pen could come in second in the First Round, beating out Sarkozy, and Hollande would face Le Pen in the Second Round.

This would send two messages.

First, President Sarkozy is not in the mold of the leaders of the traditional Gaullist wing of French politics and the best way to express this would be to eliminate him in the First Round.

Second, it would make it a lot easier for Gaullist conservatives to vote for Hollande in the Second Round - as they voted massively for the less than popular Conservative Chirac in the 1995 Second Round after Le Pen the Father beat out the Socialist candidate - not because they liked Chirac particularly but because they fear the extreme right Front National and they could thereby justify their vote for the Socialist.

It will make for an interesting Spring presidential campaign in France.