Update on Russia's Position on Syria

The Associated Press reported yesterday that Russia has decided to play its “Syria” card by continuing to defend Syria in its battle against the Arab League and the UN.

AP reports that Russia understands that its influence in the Middle East has fallen so low that Syria is its last hope. If Russia can defend Syria and bend events at the UN and in the Arab world, it may regain some of its influence in the region, so it has to try because it has nothing to lose. This analysis sounds a lot like Cold War politics, but Russia is perhaps still in that mindset in any case.

Thus, Russia will continue to veto attempts to subject Syria president Bashar al-Adsad from UN sanctions and will continue to provide weapons to Syria in the face of the almost worldwide Syrian arms embargo.

AP also suggests that Russia may be hopeful that al-Assad will prevail, thus repaying Russian support with future arms contracts.

Along with Cold War strategies and arms deals being in play, Vladimir Putin is also undoubtedly seeking to challenge the United States to prove that Russia under his leadership has fought back to a pre-eminent world position - all as part of his campaign to be re-elected president in March.

It may also be that Russia has been so vocal in its support of al-Assad that it cannot now retreat from its position without losing face both at home and in the international community.

Russia has played the Syria card for many years, even under al-Assad’s father’s regime, in an effort to dominate Middle East events and counter America influence in the region, mostly by arming Syria and allowing Syria to use the armaments to menace Israel.

When al-Assad the son took power after his father’s death, Russia forgave more than 70% of Syria’s Soviet-era debt and Putin has said several times that Russia’s route to renewing its Middle East power position is through Syria. As an example, the Syrian port of Tartus is the only naval base Russia has outside its own borders, and Russian military ships recently called on the port when they were in the Mediterranean.

And, Russia regularly delivers combat jets, tanks, missiles and other heavy weapons to Syria through Tartus - all paid for in cash by the Syrian regime.

With this as background, today Russia demanded why the Arab League had withdrawn its monitors from Syria on a day when an estimated 64 people were killed in street violence, saying that there was no need to do so. The Russian Foreign Minister called for the number of Arab League monitors to be increased.

The senior advisor to Arab League Secretary General Nabil el-Araby said Sunday that Syrian observer activity had been suspended, and that observers outside Damascus have redeployed to the capital.

Some of the monitors will leave the country and others will stay on in Damascus but will not conduct any missions, he said.

Al-Assad's government has been under international pressure to end its brutal, months-long crackdown on an anti-government uprising that began last year.

The United Nations, the United States, the European Union and members of the Arab League have called on al-Assad to end the violence and step down.

Meanwhile, in a move that is reminiscent of earlier events in Iraq, Syrian Kurdish political groups met in Iraq to agree on a plan to protect their rights if al-Assad is ousted. While the Syrian groups say that they are willing to work with the Arab opposition in Syria, they want more self-determination and autonomy in a post-Assad Syria. The Kurds also reject taking up arms and say they are afraid of Islamic undertones in the opposition groups.

"We are calling for a decentralized government because Syria is a multi-ethnic and multi-religious country," Abdul Hakim Bashar, chairman of the Kurdish National Council, told CNN. "We demand a secular state, so Islamist movements don't try to interpret the system for their benefits by applying Islamic rules in a disfigured way."

However, one of the main Syrian Kurdish parties, the Democratic Union Party, or PYD, said it was excluded from the meeting.

"We have been working to unite Kurdish people and converge between different views within the Kurdish movement in Western Kurdistan and Syria," the party said in a statement. "This conference by the Kurdistan Democratic Party is a plan to divide rather than unite the Kurdish people."

Kurds are Syria's largest ethnic minority, comprising between 10% and 15% of Syria's population.

Meanwhile, diplomats at the U.N. Security Council are considering a draft resolution that calls on al-Assad to step down and transfer power to his vice president. The Arab League plans to submit a new proposal to the Security Council later this week.

Russia, which maintains trade relations with Syria, has proposed its own draft U.N. resolution that assigns equal blame for the violence on both al-Assad and the opposition, an option rejected by the West.

In October, Russia and China made a rare double veto of a resolution that lacked sanctions but would have condemned the violence in Syria. This latest draft also lacks sanctions but is tougher than the earlier version, which said nothing about transfer of power.

Syrian ambassador to the United Nations, Bashar Ja'afari, has dismissed the proposed resolution.

"Syria will not be Libya; Syria will not be Iraq; Syria will not be Somalia; Syria will not be a failing state," he told reporters.