Casey-Pops Predictions for 2012

If you’re curious about how I did with my predictions for 2011, you can check my blog from the 4^th of January 2011. I made 7 predictions and got 4 ½ pretty close to right. But you can decide for yourselves.

So, on to the new year. What will be the major events this year? Here are my 2012 predictions.

Syria - Bashar al-Assad will be ousted, not by the street fighters but by pressure from the international community, but the Syrian problem will not be entirely over because those loyal to Assad will continue their semi-military guerrilla fighting, funded and aided by Iran, making it very difficult for the citizens of Syria to focus on a new government. The world will try to talk down Iran, without success, and the Middle East will become even more unstable.

Putin - will win the Russian presidential election, but his victory will meet with more confrontation from street marchers and he will finally have to reach an accommodation with Russian citizens that will loosen his grip on the country, probably by agreeing not to harassing opposition political parties and calling for new parliamentary elections.

Iraq - America will have to partially reverse its withdrawal in order to provide support for al-Maliki’s government, but the intervention will be enormously unpopular with the disenfranchised Sunni community, which will begin its own guerrilla war against both al-Maliki’s increasingly oppressive Shiite government and American troops on the ground.

Pakistan - American troops will openly take up positions inside Pakistan to try to prevent its nuclear capability from falling into Al Qaida and Taliban hands, as these two groups become more and more powerful, threatening what little stability exists in the country. The United States will try to form an alliance with Imran Khan’s new party, hoping his more moderate and democratic approach to Pakistani politics can be a positive factor.

Iran - will announce an agreement with the UN concerning its nuclear capacity and weapons development, with no intention of obeying it, and then quickly turn to regional politics, succeeding in making Syria a satellite and destabilizing Iraq and Lebanon. Israel will begin commando raids against the current Iranian leadership and leaders of the Revolutionary Guard.

North Korea - will return to the bargaining table and an agreement will be reached, under which the two Koreas will try to live in peace. I thought this would happen on 2011, but I feel sure it is in the cards, and now that Kim Il Jung is dead, perhaps his son will move more rapidly, not because he is more democratic but because he will feel more pressure from North Koreans themselves as wireless technology brings more of the outside world into the country and they realize just how appalling their lives are under the regime.

The Euro - sovereign debt issues will continue to be the world’s main economic preoccupation; German voters will finally say ‘no’ to continuing Germany’s role in saving the entire Eurozone and we will see the Euro split into two de facto currencies, with each Eurozone country being allowed to decide which currency it wants to use.

America - presidential politics will heat up, with Donald Trump forming a third party candidacy; this will put Republicans on high alert and they will finally have to decide if internal bickering about non-political issues, such as gay marriage and abortion, should stand in the way of winning back the White House. My bet is that the GOP will unite, Donald Trump will withdraw very late in the campaign, throwing his votes to the GOP candidate, and thereby positioning himself as the GOP kingmaker when the Republican candidate, probably Mitt Romney, wins.

All that said, dear readers, I want to thank you for your loyal support in 2011, which has given me the courage to continue, and to wish you a very Happy New Year filled with joy, peace and all good things.

Casey-Pops