Saturday Politics : Challenges Coming from the EU-Erdogan Deal and the US-Iran Deal

Saturday Politics is sometimes about Turkey -- not the Thanksgiving leftovers but the country. • • • The European Parliament voted this week to suspend Turkey's EU membership talks because of the Turkish government's crackdown since a coup attempt in July. The MEPs' non-binding vote was dismissed as "worthless" by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The MEPs asked the European Commission and 28 national governments to impose a "temporary freeze" on the talks. EU-Turkish ties have deteriorated after years of 'on again-off again' negotiations, which are likely to continue, slowly. Turkey's EU accession talks began in 2005, but only one of the 35 policy areas ("chapters") has been completed. A country can join the EU only when it has met the criteria in all 35 chapters. The non-binding MEP resolution is meant to send a political message to President Erdogan. But it will fall on deaf ears, the BBC's Mark Lowen reports from Istanbul. The resolution was passed by an overwhelming majority of MEPs -- 479 to 37, with 107 abstentions. The problem, in th eyes of the MEPs, is the July coup attempt by mutinous Turkish military officers. Erdogan accused the EU of siding with "terrorism" rather than supporting his country during the brief attempt to oust him. In addition, MEPs oppose much of his crackdown on opponents. About 120,000 Turks have been dismissed or suspended from their public sector jobs, 40,000 arrested, scores of journalists rounded up and opposition pro-Kurdish MPs detained in the coup aftermath. • • • But, Turkey is a key player in the EU's efforts to curb the influx of non-EU migrants and in containing the threat from ISIS jihadists. The EU's foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said the vote would not yield positive results and urged engagement with Turkey. The fear is that an increasingly anti-Western Erdogan could jettison the EU-Turkey deal, struck in March by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Erdogan with little input from EU leaders -- it was designed to save face for Merkel after her disastrous open-door policy for Middle East migrants caused a flood of asylum seekers from both the Middle East and Africa into Europe. Germany took in the bulk -- more than a million in 2015-16 -- but other EU member states have strongly disagreed with her 'open door' and refuse to take her designated 'quotas' of refugees. The Merkel-Erdogan deal was intended to stem the migrant flow to Europe, and to save that deal, European leaders are unlikely to adhere to the MEPs' vote. But, in reality, nobody expects that Turkey's decades-long dream of EU accession will become a reality. The MEPs' resolution said Turkey should remain "anchored" to the EU, and they pledged to review their position once the "disproportionate repressive measures" in Turkey are lifted : "Turkey is an important partner of the EU. But in partnerships, the will to co-operate has to be two-sided...Turkey is not showing this political will as the government's actions are further diverting Turkey from its European path." • • • Analysts have been asking for some time if the EU-Turkey burgeoning effort at entente is over. Turkish President Erdogan says his country should not be "fixated" on the EU : "Turkey should feel relaxed about the EU and not be fixated about joining it," Erdogan said last weekend. At the same time, he repeated his idea of joining Russia and China in the Eurasian security group Shanghai Co-operation Organization, saying : "Why shouldn't Turkey be in the Shanghai 5?" Turkey's long journey towards the EU has never gone smoothly. Since the 1960s, it has aspired to be part of the bloc, officially applying to become a member in 1987. It was not until 2005 that accession talks actually started. President Erdogan has also urged Turks to be patient until the end of the year over relations with the EU and said a referendum could be held on the country's EU membership in 2017. Many predict a vote to stay out of the EU, with the pressure coming form the Erdogan-controlled media. And, the whole migrant deal could collapse. This would halt Turkey's agreement to curb the flow of migrants and refugees to Greece in return for incentives, including EU cash assistance for Syrian refugees living in Turkey and visa-free travel for Turkish citizens within the Schengen passport free area (this has not as yet happened). If the migrant deal fails, there could be an even greater security risk in the EU as the jihadist group ISSI continues to lose territory and power and tried to send greater numbers of foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq back to Europe through Turkey. • • • The Turkish Hurriyet Daily News reported Thursday that Turkey will ‘open up border gates’ if EU goes further, quoting Erdogan. This would let refugees stream toward Europe. Erdogan told Hurriyet : “Some 30-40 votes for ‘no’ and 400-500 votes for ‘yes.’ What would happen if all of you voted ‘yes?’ You never treated humanity honestly and you did not look after people fairly. You did not pick up babies when they washed ashore on the Mediterranean. We are the ones who are feeding around 3.5 million refugees in this country. You did not keep your promises. When 50,000 refugees turned up at the Kapıkule [border gate] you cried out and began to say ‘What will we do when Turkey opens the border gates?’ Look, if you go further, those border gates will be opened. You should know that.” Erdogan repeated his often-used refrain that the “world is bigger than five,” referring to the UN Security Council’s permanent members; "We need to defend that, but we shouldn’t be afraid of some people. We can’t applaud cruelty in order to look nice to someone." Erdogan stressed that Turkey would not : "collapse because of sanctions. We will stand straight and continue on our way. Don’t forget, the West needs Turkey. Turkey didn’t think about whether it would receive money from EU while doing that. The amount that came from the UN is 500 million dollars. The number is 700 when it comes to the EU. How much did we spend? Fifteen billion dollars. There are lots of crises that threaten humanity. I will stress one point. If there wasn’t a refugee crisis, believe me, the humanitarian plights in those countries would go nearly unnoticed.” France, for one, is covering its bases and is now offfering refugees in France 2,500 Euros to return ot their home countries. There are reportedly few takers. • • • Dear readers, Western-Turkey relations have always been troubling. Erdogan is correct when he says that the EU needs Turkey to hold back the flow of refugees. But, there is also a US air base in eastern Turkey that provides air cover and sorties into ISIS-held Syria and Iraq, and that has nuclear warhead capability. While the US-Turkey relationship is fragile, it seems to stay stuck together, with the many significant differences papered over -- one reason is Turkey's strategic position in the sunni-shiite religious wars for power and hegemony in the Middle East. But, another seldom iterated reason is Turkey's strategic position on the southern shores of the Black Sea, serving as a buffer to Russian power plays in the Mediterranean, as it has for centuries. But, that too may be falling away because of the EU-Turkey dispute. Reports say that Erdogan and Putin are speaking by phone to agree on how to manage Turkey's expanding role in the north of Syria while allowing Russia to continue to protect al-Assad. • And, while Turkey issues loom large, another Middle East player is on the prowl. The Washington Post reported in early November that Iran’s supreme leader warned his regime would retaliate if the United States extends sanctions against Teheran for another decade -- putting pressure on the White House as Congress is primed to pass the measure with a probable veto-proof majority. In remarks to commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said a 10-year renewal of US sanctions on Teheran’s energy, banking and defense sectors, which the House has approved, would violate the nuclear deal struck between Iran and world powers last year. Khamenei’s statement was the latest in a string of remarks by senior Iranian officials recently warning that Iran will retaliate in some fashion if sanctions are extended and that such a move could spell the end of the nuclear deal. Iran's warnings put President Obama in a tough spot as Congress prepares to pass the 10-year extension of sanctions that lawmakers in both parties have long been clamoring for. The House passed the measure by a vote of 419 to 1. Senate action expected to follow in December. Congressional leaders are also pledging to expand on those sanctions next year with a broader spectrum of punitive measures, including sanctions to address Iran’s recent ballistic missile tests, as well as cyberthreats and cyberespionage activities. The Obama White House has resisted the changes and has not indicated yet whether it will sign off on even the renewal of existing sanctions, which would otherwise expire at the end of the year. The White House has long argued that the extension of the Iran Sanctions Act is not necessary, because the President has the authority to sanction Iran without the assistance of Congress -- although it has not used the power to prevent or reprimand Iranian breaches of the deal. • One thing is certain -- swallowing the leftovers from Thanksgiving dinner will be a lot easier than swallowing the leftovers from the Merkel- Erdogan refugee deal or the Obama-Iran nuclear deal.