Kerry Applauds a Deal While Lavrov Prepares His Veto Pen

The United States and Russia came to an agreement Saturday on a format for securing and destroying Syria's chemical weapons by mid-2014, but there was no decision on imposing UN penalties if the al-Assad regime fails to comply. The deal has garnered widespread sighs of relief from just about everyone in the world except the Syrian rebels and the Free Syrian Army, who had hoped a US military strike would even the civil war playing field somewhat. One could guess that the greatest sigh came from President Obama, whose inept handling of the Syrian chemical attack made it possible, perhaps even necessary, for Russian President Putin to rescue him. The format agreed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry in Geneva includes : (1). what Kerry called "a shared assessment" of the size but not the location of the weapons stockpile, and a timetable and measures to be followed by al-Assad. International inspectors are to be in Syria by November, charged to complete by the end of November their initial assessment of stockpiles and all mixing and filling equipment to be destroyed. These will be removed from the country or destroyed by mid-2014. While experts say the job can be done, there is almost universal agreement among them that the job will take at least 3-4 years. They also think any attempt to remove chemicals from Syria would be foolhardy, since the only open route is into Lebanon, where they could easily fall into the hands of Hezbollah. (2). After initial disagreement, Kerry and Lavrov agreed to present a UN Security Council resolution that places the agreement under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter authorizing the use of both force and nonmilitary enforcement measures. But, given that Russia is the Syrian regime's chief protector, it seems clear that Russia will veto any resolution calling for military action against al-Assad, making Russia's agreement to a Chapter 7 resolution mere lip service. (3). President Obama has commented, making it clear that "if diplomacy fails, the United States remains prepared to act." But Russia's prior rejection of three resolutions on Syria, makes it equally clear that Russia will veto any future UN move toward military action. This will leave America without a coalition, unless France stays the course, because the nations that would join such a US-led attack will not do so without a UN resolution in place to cover their actions. Kerry told a Geneva news conference that "There can be no games, no room for avoidance or anything less than full compliance by the Assad regime." We can only hope so, because an al-Assad disavowal will leave America once again isolated in face of the al-Assad chemical weapons dilemma. (4). Kerry and Lavrov emphasized that the agreement sends a strong message to Syria and to the world that the use of chemical weapons will not be tolerated. Lavrov added, "We understand that the decisions we have reached today are only the beginning of the road." But, noncompliance by the al-Assad regime or any other party would be referred to the 15-nation Security Council by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. That group oversees the Chemical Weapons Convention, which Syria will apparently join in October. The OPCW president spoke of adopting "necessary measures" to put in place "an accelerated program to verify the complete destruction" of Syria's chemical weapons, production facilities and "other relevant capabilities." Kerry says the OPCW will be working under Chapter 7 rules. "What remedy is chosen is subject to the debate within the Council, which is always true. But there's a commitment to impose measures." Lavrov, however, indicated there would be limits to using such a resolution. "Any violations of procedure...would be looked at by the Security Council and if they are approved, the Security Council would take the required measures, concrete measures," Lavrov said. "Nothing is said about the use of force or about any automatic sanctions." But, given that a thorough investigation of any allegation of noncompliance is required before any possible action, Moscow could drag out the process or veto measures it deems too harsh. ~~~~~ Dear readers, in this agreement we see the result of an indecisive American President being backed into a corner by a Russian president who seized an opportunity to enhance his and Russia's image. Do not blame Vladimir Putin for this "agreement" which is really a wish list of the Obama-Kerry team being shredded by Putin's realpolitik. A leading US Republican Senator, Bob Corker, who a few days ago said Obama is incapable of being the American commander-in-chief, expressed concerns that without the threat of force, it is not clear "how Syrian compliance will be possible under the terms of any agreement." He said Syria's "willingness to follow through is very much an open question" and he said he does not want the negotiations to signal a "retreat from our broader national interests," including support for "moderate" opposition forces in Syria. General Salim Idris, head of the Free Syrian Army, told a news conference in Turkey that the Russian initiative would "buy time" and that rebels will continue "fighting the regime and work for bringing it down." He said that if international inspectors come to Syria in order to inspect chemical weapons, "we will facilitate their passages but there will be no cease-fire." The FSA will not block the work of UN inspectors, he said, and the "inspectors will not be subjected to rebel fire when they are in regime-controlled areas." ~~~~~ Yet President Obama continues to say he has the power to strike unilaterally if the UN deal fails. Act, Mr. President? Your allies will not follow without a UN resolution which you have today injudiciously put into the hands of Russia, which will veto it. Your ill-thought-out decision to ask Congress for authorization to strike is a failure since neither the House nor the Senate will accept your proposal to strike Syria. And, the American people, depending on the region polled, are 70-90% against your entire strike idea. I repeat my prior suggestion. For the good of America and the world : Resign.