The Shifting Balance of Power in the Middle East

Two separate but closely related events have been reported in the Middle East today. Hamas and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza and nearby Israeli border towns. And the Syrian rebel coalition has overtaken and sacked a major al-Assad military base near Aleppo. After a nearly two-month siege, Syrian rebels overwhelmed the base of the 46th regiment in the north of the country and made off with tanks, armored vehicles and truckloads of munitions that rebel leaders say will give them a boost in the fight against President al-Assad's army. This is a serious blow to the regime's efforts to roll back rebel gains and shows a rising level of organization among opposition forces. Syria's rebels have gradually been destroying regime checkpoints and taking over towns in the northern provinces of Idlib and Aleppo along the Turkish border. Rebel fighters say that weapons seized in such battles have been essential to their transformation from ragtag gangs into forces capable of challenging Assad's professional army. Cross-border arms smuggling from Turkey and Iraq has played a role, although the most common complaint among rebel fighters is that they lack ammunition and heavy weapons, munitions and anti-aircraft weapons to fight Assad's air force. They have repeatedly asked for supplies from the west but few countries have stepped forward. Meanwhile, an Israel - Hamas ceasefire has ended eight days of fierce fighting in Gaza. It includes a halt to air strikes and rocket attacks that have killed more than a hundred people mostly in Gaza, and a promise to discuss easing the Israeli blockade that constricts the Gaza Strip. However, rocket fire continued to hit southern Israel long after the cease-fire deadline had passed, authorities said, and schools in the region planned to stay shut Thursday as a precaution in case rockets continue to be launched. The ceasefire was brokered by Egyptian president Morsi, thus cementing his and Egypt's role as a leader in a Middle East that has dramatically changed following the popular uprisings known as the Arab Spring. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton raced to the region on Tuesday but it was Morsi, on the ground and active all week long, who can take the bows as the negotiator. Under the agreement, Egypt will play a key role in maintaining the peace. Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal said the deal included an agreement to open all border crossings with the Gaza Strip, including the important Rafah crossing with Egypt. Secretary Clinton stood beside Egyptian foreign minister, Mohammed Kamel Amr, as he, not Clinton, announced the truce that came after days of intense efforts that drew the world's top diplomats to the region. Netanyahu said he agreed to the cease-fire after consulting with President Obama to allow Israeli civilians to get back to their lives. He said the two leaders also agreed to work together against weapon smuggling into Gaza, a statement confirmed by the White House. Netanyahu said that there are some Israelis who would have preferred a greater incursion into Gaza, adding that it may be needed later. "But at this time, the right thing for the state of Israel is to take this opportunity to reach a lasting ceasefire," he said. Hamas officials said details on the new border arrangements would have to be negotiated. Among the current restrictions: a near-complete ban on exports, limited movement of people leaving the territory, and limits on construction materials that Israel says could be used for military use. These types of materials are now smuggled into Gaza in tunnels underneath the border with Egypt. Egypt's new Islamist government is caught in a balancing act between its allegiance to Hamas and its need to maintain good relations with Israel and the U.S. Hamas is an offshoot of Egypt's ruling Muslim Brotherhood. Dear readers, the link between these two events is the absence of a meaningful American presence. We are witnessing the first practical results of the Arab Spring shift in the Middle East balance of power. The conservative, American-backed leaders are gone or going, replaced by Islamists or very uneven coalitions unwilling to take sides overtly in the struggle beyween America and Iran for dominance. The Unites States should be more active in the Middle East, making friends where it can and mending fences with groups such as the Syria coalition that feel abandoned by the west in their struggle for freedom.