Action in Egypt and Israel

Two seemingly unrelated events today may, in fact, have significant and related influence in the mid-term future of the Middle East. (1). Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi continues to refuse to back down concerning his controversial move late last week that gives him unchecked authority as the nation's sole source of legislation when he issues decrees that he are above judicial review. It has been reported that Morsi has assured the judges that the decrees do not in any way "infringe" on the judiciary, but he also told them he would not to back down or compromise on the constitutional amendments. Morsi's decrees led to massive opposition protests over the weekend and more than 250 people have been arrested. Both sides had planned competing rallies in Cairo on Tuesday, but the Muslim Brotherhood says it has cancelled a planned mass rally in support of President Morsi, who comes from the Brotherhood, which said it called off Tuesday's street demonstration to "lessen congestion" and avoid "public tension." The opposition has not yet announced its march plans for Tuesday, but they continue to label Morsi's decrees as a blatant power grab, and have refused to enter a dialogue with him before the edicts are rescinded. The president has vigorously defended the new powers, saying they are a necessary temporary measure to implement badly needed reforms and protect Egypt's transition to democracy. While Morsi's acts are widely seen as a raw power grab, perhaps one should ask if he is acting in coordination with the Muslim Brotherhood or in a petsonal attempt to coalesce Islamist forces in the region around his leadership. If this is the case, then the Egyptian battle over its political future would become a tri-partite battle, with the Brotherhood's younger generation perhaps forging a middle ground position between the western-style democratic protest movement and the radically conservative Islamists. Such an alignment would lead to more regional instability because the Brotherhood outside Egypt could demand to be treated as moderates, something neither Israel nor many western governments would find acceptable. Ultimately, world media - always ready to stake out a position left of center - might force world leaders into an appeasement position, once more leaving Israel alone to fight off Middle East radical Islam. (2). Against this worrisome backdrop, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak abruptly quit politics Monday, potentially robbing Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu of a key ally who enabled his hardline government to present a moderate face to the world. While another comeback by the mercurial former general cannot be discounted, Barak's departure marks an end to a distinguished and tumultuous 50-year career. It began on a communal farm, led to military greatness and business success and a mixed record in politics that was highlighted by failed peacemaking efforts during a brief term as prime minister. Despite polls showing his small centrist Independence Party gaining momentum following the eight-day Israeli offensive in Gaza that he directed, Barak said he would not run again for office in the January 22 elections. Barak will remain as defense minister until a new government is sworn in after the elections. As the most prominent warrior-statesman of his generation, Barak is considered by many to be angling to keep his job after the election as a special appointment of Netanyahu, who is expected to be re-elected. Barak has given Netanyahu's governing coalition a well-known moderate face for the world to engage, as well as being a solid partner for Netanyahu. The two men have been close since the 1970s when Netanyahu served under him when Barak was head of Israel's elite commando force. Renowned as a brilliant military strategist, he shot through the ranks to become military chief of staff, following in the footsteps of his mentor, Yitzak Rabin. In 1995, after 36 years in uniform, he made the quick transition to politics, became head of the iconic Labor Party and was elected prime minister - beating Netanyahu in 1999 - on a pledge to reach a long-awaited peace with Israel's enemies. But his difficult term in office lasted less than two years, the shortest of any elected Israeli premier, and he left under a cloud because of his unilateral withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000, his failed negotiations with the Palestinians and Syria, and a violent Palestinian uprising that erupted under his watch. Barak withdrew from politics until 2007 when he formed the Independence Party and won a few seats on the Knesset. He took his party into coalition with the conservatives and Netanyahu awarded Barak great influence in decision-making and made him his informal point man to the United States. His departure comes at a time when Israel faces Islamist political parties rising around Israel and a decision looming on whether to strike Iran's nuclear program. And, Netanyahu may face increasing pressure from President Barack Obama in his second term if he lacks the moderating effect of Barak. Netanyahu's hawkish vice premier, Moshe Yaalon, is expected to become defense minister if Barak remains on the sidelines. ~~~~~~~ So, dear readers, we have a military problem in Israel, made more important because of the personal and political relationships involved. While Israel will not be destabilized either by Ehud Barak staying on or leaving the defense ministry, his moderate voice, serving as a cover for Netanyahu's more hardline decisions about Palestine and, especially, Iran, could give Israel more strength with both its allies and its enemies. Of course, his military leadership would be a huge plus for Israel.