Another View of the Gaza - Israel Crisis

On this Thanksgiving Day in America, many people around the world join me in giving thanks that the Gaza - Israel crisis is over, at least for the present. But 'over' for the long term is far from clear. Israeli prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu pushed back Thursday against those asking that a decisive blow be struck against Hamas, saying he was not willing to embark on a military adventure and risk antagonizing the international community. Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak said Israel could retake Gaza, "but I'm not sure that would be wise," Barak, one of Israel's most experienced military strategists, said on Israel Army Radio. Netanyahu reiterated that Israel would consider invasion "if Hamas breaks the cease-fire," but that seemed unlikely considering warnings from the US and the West of the high cost of sending in ground troops. Meanwhile, Hamas hardliner Mahmoud Zahar said that Israel had underestimated the position of Hamas in the post-Arab Spring Middle East and fell into a trap." Zahar added that the improved Hamas arsenal, including longer-range rockets and anti-tank missiles smuggled from Iran via tunnels under the Gaza-Egypt border, helped deter Israel's military. But, the more important change in the post-Arab Spring Middle East involves Egypt, which has changed pro-Western Hosni Mubarak, who helped keep Hamas isolated, for Mohammed Morsi, like the Gaza Islamists a member of the region-wide Muslim Brotherhood. Morsi has suddenly emerged as an 'effective' mediator, since he already had the trust of Hamas, and Israel did not want to damage its ties with the Arab world's largest nation. Egypt's sway over Hamas meant that they scaled back their demand to negotiate a detailed border deal with Israel before halting fire. In the end, Hamas agreed that a 24-hour period of calm would lead to negotiations on the new arrangements. Earlier in the day, the Egyptian intelligence chief had met with the top Hamas leader in exile, Khaled Mashaal, and the head of the smaller sister group Islamic Jihad, Ramadan Shalah, according to AP Newswire. Morsi has eased restrictions on the main Egyptian crossing but not completely thrown it open as Hamas would like, and now Hamas is demanding complete freedom of movement in and out of Gaza, while resisting the idea of demilitarizing the territory. However, an Israeli security official told AP that Israel would link the two. The week-long crisis has given Hamas some gains in the political arena. Foreign ministers from the region rushed to Gaza over the past week to show support for Hamas, while the U.S. and Israel finally acknowledged Hamas' central role by conducting indirect talks. Hamas also managed to embarrass the Palestinian West Bank leader Abbas, its western-backed political rival who was rendered largely irrelevant during negotiations. Netanyahu's willingness to negotiate a truce deal with Hamas, while refusing to engage Abbas on the same terms as previous Israeli prime ministers, reinforced many Palestinians' belief that Israel only responds to force. If Hamas extracts border concessions from Israel, this would further discredit Abbas and his approach of non-violence and negotiating the terms of a Palestinian state with Israel. Faced with Hamas' rising popularity, Abbas' security forces were forced to watch this week when West Bank demonstrators raised green Hamas banners for the first time in years. Both Abbas and prospects for a two-state solution to the Mideast conflict "are on the losing end," said International Crisis Group think tank analyst Jonathan Alterman, who said Israel could have "provoked one of the more profound shifts in Palestinian politics." Dear readers, I've been watching today's events and commentary in the aftermath of the Gaza crisis and I have to ask myself why it ever occurred. Hamas may have won some noteriety short term, but it seems unlikely that Morsi or the Muslim Brotherhood will yield to a gang of masked anonymous terrorists dependant of Iran and Egypt itself for survival and supplies. As for Israel, it has been through similar crises during its entire existence and 2012 is different from 1947 only because Israel is stronger economically and militarily. It must realize that the Obama administration is helping now because it would be a major blow to Obama to lose face in the Arab world by standing by while Israel is dismantled by the Brotherhood and Hamas. But Obama will be gone in 4 years, a short time in Israel and Jewish history. And if Morsi wants to be THE leader in rhe Middle East, he must start somewhere. He wants to put himself and his Brothethood at the helm in the region and bringing Hamas to heel is a good first step. And so I would like to suggest a more cynical exolanation. Morsi was consolidating Brotherhood-Hamas power while masquerading as a friend of the US and Israel to gain control of Palestine and sandwich Israel prior to exterminating her with Iranian help. Israel realizes this and used the trumped-up crisis to test its iron dome missile defense system, get more funding support for it from Obama, and make the American president declare publicly his support for Israel. All this would put Israel in a stronger position if it finally had to invade Iran to prevent being held hostage to an Iranian nuclear bomb. Today's little reported events may support this view. Morsi has just called for the Parliament and Committee of 100 to draft the new and long-awaited Egyptian constitution because "no entity not even the judiciary" can dissolve Parliament, as the Egyptian supreme court did in nullifying its role in drafting the constitution. He also has asked for the prosecution of "anyone" who harmed Egyptians or the country during the Arab. Spring revolt. Finally, Morsi has decreed that no individual and no entity can challenge any of his decrees or laws. Not exactly the actions of a peacemaker.