Sunday, February 13, 2011

Contingency Plans for Israel

We are all enormously happy for the Egyptian people, as well as for all the other peoples of the region who may, in the next months, be able to free themselves from despotic rule. I wish only for their safety as events unfold, and for their real victory as new governments and constitutions are put in place.
But, today I would like to consider Israel.
If Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Algeria, Morocco and other Middle East countries relatively moderate, in terms of their outlook toward the non-Muslim world, find the means to free themselves from authoritarianism, what will become of Israel?
I ask this question because Israel is shielded by these relatively moderate countries. The regional counties left are Iran, Syria and Palestine. The Emirates (including Dubai, Bahrain, Abu Dhabi) are moderate but not involved directly in the Israeli question.
Iran, Syria and Palestine (at least the Hamas Gaza Strip part of Palestine) are not only not moderate in their views toward the non-Muslin world, they are positively opposed to Israel's existence. Who will offer an alternative view, or provide a shield for Israel if, as is far from impossible, the moderate Middle East countries, instead of moving toward democracy, become fundamentalist military states?
Egypt has announced its intention to honor it peace treaty with Israel. Will the others follow or will they be pulled toward a more fundamentalist position? This would leave Israel vulnerable to attack and invasion.
Israel is certainly militarily prepared to defend itself, but no small state in the midst of a firestorm from those bent on eliminating it could survive forever.   
I hope Israel, Europe and the United States are preparing contingency plans for what could become a regional war against Israel, one that could easily lead to a wider war in which most of the world would be involved, and in which Iran's presumed nuclear capability could play a significant role.
All the more reason for all of us to support the freedom fighters and help them to establish non-theocratic democracies. 

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