Cairo's Freedom Train and the Tunisian Model

Mubarak seems to be more stubborn than the world - America and the protesters, in any case - thought. He has hung on through marches and sit-ins after more than two weeks. In Tunisia, it took the marchers only a week to overthrow the government of Ben Ali.
What is the difference? The security service. In Tunisia, the president's security service, an euphemism for the secret intelligence group, quickly joined the marchers and the result became inevitable. It caught Ben Ali, Europe and America by surprise and was over almost before they could form an opinion.
In Egypt, the security service is still with Mubarak. In fact, the head of the security service, Omar Suleiman, was appointed vice president by Mubarak and told to deal with the marchers and yield what was necessary to put Egypt back in order. It is clear that Mubarak is still in command and that Suleiman is his conduit. That is what makes the freedom fighters nervous, because Suleiman was considered the Middle East's most competent intelligence chief when he served in that function and they think he is still the head of intelligence. They stay massed in Tahrir Square because they fear being picked off one-by-one, arrested and tortured or eliminated if they disperse.
The fact of Suleiman at the head of negotiations with the marchers makes life difficult for America, too. Suleiman has been the staunchest ally of the US in fighting terrorism and Al-Qaida in the region. Who knows what services he has provided to our own CIA. Knowledgeable journalists say it was many and often the "dirtiest" of jobs that Suleiman's service did. Now, America is telling him to waive security controls, end martial law and make peace with the people and groups he was heretofore watching and eliminating.
As I watch and listen to Suleiman the past few days, I have the sense that he is at the end of his rope. He reminds me of a child who is trying to learn how to ride a bicycle and keeps falling over - he gets up and tries again and again - but finally he starts to cry or gets angry and yells, "I just can't do it."
Suleiman seems to be trying. He seems to be genuine, although the freedom fighters would probably disagree. But, he just can't do it. With Mubarak at one elbow, the United States at the other and the marchers in front of him, he is stymied. So, he reverts to form : "If you marchers do not go home and let me finish the work of doing what you want, and if you cannot understand that Mubarak will not let me compromise any more, then I will send out the Army to put down the rebellion because Egypt cannot go on like this until September."
As I write, I am listening to the television in Europe, and it seems that the army is announcing that it is joining the freedom fighters. That makes Egypt a lot more like Tunisia. The next day or so could be decisive.
What will Egypt look like in a week? Who really knows.  I just hope it will remain a friend of America and Israel and stays the course in the war on terrorism.