Monday, February 7, 2011

Cairo's Freedom Train, Part 3

The media is slowly abandoning Egypt and its freedom marchers. The story is still reported but with many fewer words and images. We know that modern media loses interest quickly and goes on the prowl for the next "big" item, but the truth is that there is no bigger story than Egypt until the Egyptian people are finally allowed to speak at the voting box. It was the Internet that gave the street revolt life and it was the media that fed it. Now, we are seeing the media's "attention span" give way.
So, it is up to all of us to support the Egyptians and make the world remember that they are still in Tahrir Square waiting for the government and Hosni Mubarak to give in to their demands. The present lack of confrontation and visible anger do not mean that the freedom fighters have won. Far from it.
Nothing has as yet been resolved. The vice president, the prime minister and the defense head are all from the military, as is Mubarak. They have an agenda that seems to at least tolerate changes toward democracy, but nothing is less sure than that democracy will finally prevail. And, we have no real idea what the army's agenda is.
Egypt was a monarchy until 1952 when a group of young army officers overthrew King Farouk and installed Nasser, who promptly turned Egypt toward the Soviet Union. Since then, Egypt has been a military regime with states of emergency and military courts. They switched from the Soviets to America as times changed, but their grip is a constant in the Egypt of the last 50 years.
Will the army willingly let go of power in order to install a democratic government in which the Egyptian people are in charge? Why? They are the only functioning bureaucracy in the country. They control the government, the media, and business. They choose presidents and ministers and replace them as needs arise. If they give up these prerogatives, what would become of them? They would be just another arm of the people's government, without perks or special political power. Three generations of the Egyptian military elite have been raised to rule and it is hard to believe that they will simply "fade away" as General Douglas MacArthur said in his farewell speech at West Point, explaining the fate of American military officers after retirement. That poignant phrase may fall easily from the lips of an American military general used to submitting to political authority, but the concept does not exist in Egypt.
So, while we cheer the Egyptian military for now because of their support and protection of the marchers, let's not forget that they have a big stake in the outcome of the multi-party negotiations that are just now getting underway. They might be tempted to look at Turkey and try to emulate the Turkish military's long-term lock on what is ostensibly democratic political power, through the intimidation of those who disagree with them. They might make a devil's deal with the radicals, the Muslim Brotherhood and their friends, in order to continue to have power in an extreme islamist state. They might even be bitten by the democracy bug and yield up their power to the people. But, that would be a political act of the greatest altruism.
So, watch, listen, follow events, and be ready for anything. Do not be distracted.  In Egypt, it is still early morning and the sun has not risen on democracy.

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