China and the Jasmine Revolution

We are watching today as the freedom fighters of Libya continue to push forward toward Tripoli and depose Qadhaffi and his family. The French government has sent two planeloads of medical and food supplies to Benghazi. I hope we see similar support coming soon from other countries.
In Libya, the beginnings of an interim spokesman or government (it may be too soon to say that an interim government is forming) are being presented to world television.
In Tunisia, the hang-over interim prime minister has been replaced by one who is more consistent with popular desires.
Egyptian groups are talking seriously about how to proceed with elections, either for a president alone with legislative elections to follow, or both at the same time.
Senator John McCain was in Cairo this weekend and said that efforts to put in place a democratic government are progressing.
But, Senator McCain said that he believes that we have not seen the end of regime change. He noted China in particular.
We saw last week how China reacted to a tweet sent from outside the country calling for a peaceful jasmine march. Heavy plainclothes police presence on the streets of most major Chinese cities prevented marchers from forming, and several arrests were made, principally of those known to be human rights activists. The Chinese authorities blocked some photos and words like “jasmine” or “today” on social websites.
Most of the Chinese who were shopping were more curious than they were ready to join a march.
The organizers of the “citizens stroll”, as the organizers are calling it, have called for similar events every Sunday afternoon.
Will the Chinese take to the streets? Nothing is less sure, for several reasons.
First, the Chinese standard of living has risen and continues to rise rapidly. Only the poor living in the country are being left behind and, while they have the most to gain from regime change, they would be the most difficult to organize for protests.
Second, the Chinese do not like disorder and their elders have passed on recollections of the chaos during the Second World War and the 1948 revolution. It would require severe social dislocation for them to take to the streets against the government.
In this regard, the Chinese are rather used to taking the long view of affairs. They see China as eternal and its rulers (or conquerors) as fleeting. One need only look at Chinese history to see that the Chinese have had the stamina to wait out every group that ever tried to destroy or change them.
So, a jasmine revolution in China is not likely.
But, change is inevitable and it will come faster than the Communist Party expects. The Party has unleashed market forces and individual independence to the degree that taking it back or holding it tightly in check will be extremely difficult. The younger generations now know that they have a legitimate place in the world and that their government will either help them to fulfill it or be swept aside as irrelevant.
Irrelevancy is not a word that I think the Chinese Communist Party would willingly accept.
That leaves change, and soon, before history overtakes the Chinese Communist rulers and they become what they would detest being called - irrelevant.