As we celebrate the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011, I can't help but wonder which of today's problems will still be with us at the beginning of 2012. Here are my thoughts.
Ivory Coast - the problem will not have been satisfactorily resolved; sporadic fighting will still be seen in the streets of Ivory Coast as various would-be "leaders" and "saviors" try to assert their positions; the people of Ivory Coast will struggle; many will have fled the country, becoming refugees to be fed and sheltered by the international community, which caused the problem in large part by ordering instead of negotiating.
Khodorkovsky - as the Russian presidential election approaches, his legal battles will continue and he will still be unjustly imprisoned; perhaps 2012 will find him liberated if he chooses to leave Russia as the condition; he will refuse.
Afghanistan - the allies of America will continue to wind down their efforts; America will try to withdraw, making the most of its "accomplishments" but the Taliban and Al Qaida will be stronger and more entrenched than they are today; and American troops will openly take up positions in Pakistan to try to prevent its nuclear capability form falling into Al Qaida and Taliban hands.
Iran - will announce the pending test of its first nuclear warhead, which will deliver a big message; the international community will continue to posture but will still have no solution to Iran's political situation.
Palestine - Israel will put its armed forces on a war footing and more serious skirmishes with Hezbollah and Hamas will occur; this will force Palestine will make some sort of separate arrangement with Israel and Palestine itself, coming under overt attack by the two groups, will be defended by Israel.
North Korea - will return to the bargaining table and an agreement will be reached, under which the two Koreas will once more try to live in peace.
The World Economy - sovereign debt issues will continue and become the main economic rock around the world's neck; one or two other Eurozone countries will join Greece and Ireland in defaulting and German voters will be louder in protesting the lead role of Germany in saving the Eurozone; we will see the beginning of the effort to solve the Eurozone crisis by splitting the Euro into two de facto currencies - this will be covered over by talk about two Eurozones whose economic needs are different.
Happy New Year, and may most of my predictions be wrong !!
No comments:
Post a Comment