Monday, January 3, 2011

China and Spain

China's vice premier announced, just before his trip to Spain later this week, that China has confidence in the Spanish government's handling of its economy and will continue to invest in Spain's government bonds.
This is in contrast to the international financial community, which has repeatedly predicted that Spain will eventually need the kind of bailout that the European Union has already offered to Greece and Ireland.
China's determination to invest in Spain raises some interesting questions.
Is China willing to roll the dice on Spain because it is seeking a relatively inexpensive entry point into the Eurozone decision-making process? If this is the case, China must believe that the Euro is going to survive in some form and will be useful as a "weapon" in its ongoing battle with Washington concerning the relative value of the Chinese vs American currencies. Being able to influence European Central Bank decisions about where and how to support the Euro could be an indirect way for China to try to select the yen-USDollar relationship in China's favor.
Or, is China simply looking for another trading partner of a size to be competitive with the longstanding China-America trade partnership. If this is so, China could be in for a surprise as it more fully understands that Germany is the key to European export trade (and China already has a good trading relationship with Germany). There is probably some room for increasing the China-Europe trade but not of a magnitude that would replace the American purchase of Chinese goods.
Perhaps China is looking for the thing it lacks and most needs - agricultural land. Spain is a perfect partner for some types of agriculture but does not have the climate or water necessary for grain, rice or cotton production. Does China want beef? The meats most consumed in China are pork and chicken. So, I cannot believe that at bottom, China sees Spain in the same light as Brazil, where it is steadily increasing its agricultural interests.
Surely, China does not want Europe per se. China is not an aggressive territorial expander. But, one is tempted to think that China could be positioning itself long term in expectation of the eventuality that Europe weakens to the point that it will need a knight on horseback to save it from being picked apart economically or territorially.
Maybe China just likes flamenco and bull fights, but I doubt it.

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