Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Is the Euro Worth Saving?

China, and now, Japan are buying the government bonds of eurozone countries.
China noted that it is in Europe to stay and that its warm breezes will help thaw the European freeze, both in climate and fiscal policy presumably. China also invested some money into the UK and will lend a British zoo a pair of pandas for ten years as a sign of friendship.
The United States has been, through Federal Reserve mechanisms, pouring dollars into Europe since 2008 in an effort to prop up European banks needing cash, and thereby supporting the Euro.
Is the Euro really worth saving? I'm not so sure, and neither are a lot of ordinary Europeans who are seeing their purchasing power and standard of living disintegrate under the Euro regime. The Euro was thrust upon them in a series of treaties that were pretty much either ratified by state parliaments without voter agreement or put to citizen votes (in Ireland they voted twice, that is, until the Irish got it right and voted yes).
The Euro is at the heart of what is wrong with today's Europe. The single currency favors only Germany, and to some extent France, because their economies are self-sustaining and export-based.
The smaller eurozone countries (Italy, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Portugal...) cannot compete with either France or Germany. Their economies are based on agriculture, or tourism, or small local industry. They cannot do what has sustained them since World War II - borrow on the international bond markets and repay as they can. Sometimes, the repayments have been supported by currency devaluations that have made it easier to repay in currencies that are worth less. Lenders have allowed this practice because they get their money back in higher interest rates charged for their bond purchases. This resulted in higher encrusted debt levels in these countries, but their citizens were happy.
Under the Euro regime, the small countries have been stymied. They can no longer devalue their currency (the Euro) because they have no control over it. They can no longer hold higher government debt levels because the treaties they were flim-flammed into accepting prevent them from maintaining a national debt burden over 3% of their Gross National Product. That is what is called national suicide - and people all over Europe are beginning to awaken to their mistake.
Will they demand that their respective countries withdraw from the eurozone? That would be difficult because of the terms of their current bond debts, but they could strike or engage in other forms of protest that might leave their governments will little choice but to withdraw or renegotiate the terms of their participation in the Euro single currency.
Germany, France and the European Central Bank (a bank that has no real power except to persuade) would have a debacle on their hands if countries demanded that the eurozone be broken up, because they are themselves lenders to the other governments. Add to that the impact if the Euro had to be replaced by the old local currencies. It could be done, but it would not be pretty or financially pleasant for anyone, least of all Germany, which has come to rely on the Euro for its export-driven economy. If Germany were to return to the Deutsch Mark, the DM would rapidly increase in value and that would be a cold wind for the German economy.
So, we wait and watch. Something will happen. What? Nobody knows the answer today.      

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