Friday, January 21, 2011

Henry Kissinger on China

Henry Kissinger was the guest on the Charlie Rose program Wednesday evening. Kissinger is an old man now. His speech is somewhat slower, and it is clear that he takes a little longer to formulate his thoughts and turn them into words chiselled to perfection. But, he still does it. Anyone who wants to know how the United States ought to be conducting its relationship with China need only listen to this interview.
Henry Kissinger, the architect of the opening up of China to the West and America under President Nixon, probably knows more about China, the Chinese and how they think, and what their words and actions mean, than anyone in the world outside China.
Answering Rose's question, Kissinger applied his intelligence and precision to the Obama administration's China policy. He has no basic quarrel with it - the United States needs to become a working partner with China.
How to go about it? That is his forté and where his disagreements about tactics, fundamental as they are, were sculptured into a lesson in diplomacy that everyone ought to read and re-read.
To summarize:
1. Do not be afraid of China. Like any major or rising power, it flexes its muscle to get what it wants. So does the USA. Consider that "China has not survived for 4000 years by being soft." That quote alone was worth the entire hour.
2. Do not threaten China. (Or anyone else.) China will not budge if it is backed into a corner publicly. Talk privately and in a context that will let China see the benefits to itself in following American advice.
3. Especially, do not fuss publicly about the yuan. China knows it must re-value its currency, and shouting the fact from the rooftops only makes it harder for China's political leadership to do the job. Remember that the re-evaluation of the yuan is not the entire solution to American economic problems. It will not only make Chinese exports more expensive, it will also make the Chinese people (i.e., the 800 million I talked about yesterday) suffer, and that could lead to internal political instability, something that would not be good for Asia or the world.  
4. Meet with Chinese leaders regularly, even if there are no big items to discuss. It is the only way to become at ease with each other so that in crises, the important discussions are not occasions in which Chinese or American distrust of the other gets in the way.
5. Remember that China is not an aggressive country. It does not seek to enlarge its boundaries (except for Tibet, which has been a cause for Chinese-Indian, that is, British Empire, disputes for centuries). Other Asian countries fear China not for its expansionist tendencies but for its muscular attempts to bend other Asian countries to its will by threats. That's why an American presence in Asia is important.
6. Develop a deep and enduring relationship with India - for several reasons. First, India is, simply by its existence, the best control against China. Second, America and India have common interests in Asia that need to be confronted and resolved together over the long term.
I cannot do Henry Kissinger justice, but I think I've captured his major points. Go to Charlie Rose's website and see the interview for yourself. It is well worth the time.

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