The Tangled Nuclear Web of North Korea, Iran, China, Turkey, and Qatar

THE REAL NEWS HAPPENED MONDAY NIGHT WHILE MANY OF US WERE WATCHING UNENDINGLY SAD IMAGES OF HOUSTON UNDER WATER. Every news channel did "alert" cut lines to report that North Korea had just launched an ICBM over Japan. THAT IS TODAY'S REAL NEWS. • • • NORTH KOREA MID-RANGE MISSILE FLIES OVER JAPAN. Fox News, along with all media outlets, reported about 10 PM EDT that North Korea had fired a missile over Japan for the first time since 2009. The Pentagon confirmed the reports that the launch occurred at 6 AM Tuesday local time. The launch is seen as a message of defiance to the US and its allies in the region. The Pentagon said : "We are still in the process of assessing this launch. North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) determined the missile launch from North Korea did not pose a threat to North America. We are working closely with Pacific Command, Strategic Command and NORAD and will provide an update as soon as possible." A senior US official said that there had been some movement suggesting an intermediate missile was being prepped. • The South Korean military said the missile flew about 1,700 miles with a height of 341 miles, which is lower than the 2,300 mile altitude of an intercontinental ballistic missile launched in late July. North Korea’s July 4 ICBM traveled some 1,700 miles into space. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) confirmed that the missile was fired from the area of Sunan in Pyongyang shortly before 6 AM and flew east, traveling over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga labeled it an "unprecedented grave threat." The US Missile Defense Agency said that the Japanese government alerted the public to take cover in northern areas of Japan but that the Japanese military did not attempt to intercept it. South Korea's presidential office convened a National Security Council (NSC) session quickly after the missile was fired. • North Korea had fired three short-range missiles on Saturday -- all deemed successful despite initial reports suggesting failure, according to the US military. The JCS said the projectiles fired during the weekend from North Korea's eastern coast flew about 155 miles. North Korean missile launches have been happening at an unusually fast pace this year -- Monday's launch was the 18th this year -- and some analysts say the North could have viable long-range nuclear missiles before the end of President Trump's first term in early 2021. North Korea's series of test launches to develop its missile capability included its recent threat to send missiles over western Japan and into waters near the US territory of Guam. Trump at that time warned that the North would be met with "fire and fury like the world has never seen" if threats from the rogue regime continued. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson later said that he was "pleased to see that the regime in Pyongyang has certainly demonstrated some level of restraint that we've not seen in the past." Tillerson said he wanted to continue a "peaceful pressure campaign." • On Tuesday morning, President Trump said "all options are on the table" in a statement released by the White House that read : "The world has received North Korea’s latest message loud and clear: this regime has signaled its contempt for its neighbors, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behavior. Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world....All options are on the table." • • • WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE NK TEST? The Diplomat published an article by Ankit Panda on Tuesday that warned : "The observed range on Tuesday would put the North Korean missile just short of the required range of strike Guam. North Korea had released a specific trajectory for a Hwasong-12 salvo launch earlier in August through it’s state-run media....Kim Jong-un, reviewed the plan on August 15, but did not authorize a launch. Tuesday’s launch has the political effect of showing off that North Korea now has ballistic missiles that can strike ranges in the upper-range of what the United States would consider a medium-range ballistic missile (1,000 to 3,000 kilometers). A full-range test of the Hwasong-12 could likely exhibit a much greater range; depending on the payload...in excess of 4,000 kilometers." Ankit Panda says that the reported break-up of the missile that overflew Japan is not necessarily an indication of design weakness : "Flying missiles on trajectories closer to their minimum energy trajectory would help simulate a more realistic stress and temperature endurance profile for the reentry vehicle. North Korea’s so-called ‘lofted’ tests to date in the Sea of Japan place the reentry vehicles under unrealistic stress profiles, given their descent from apogees that would never be seen in operational flight. If the missile did break up in flight and Pyongyang was able to observe it, that would still give North Korea important diagnostic information to eventually improve its airframe designs." • But, Ankit Panda says that it’s unclear how North Korea would have collected telemetry data on the descent and terminal stages of the missile : "Data collection at that distance would presumably require North Korea to place ship-borne sensors surreptitiously in the area." Panda also was one of the first to report that the US was not surprised by the launch : "The Sunan launch site, near Pyongyang International Airport, is a first for North Korea. The choice of this site suggests that North Korea continues to diversify its prospective operational launch sites...to catch the United States off-guard. However, hours before the launch on Tuesday, a US government source with knowledge of the latest US military intelligence on North Korea had told me that a KN17 (the US intelligence community designation for the Hwasong-12) launch was assessed to be likely. The United States was not caught off-guard by this test, despite the introduction of a new launch site." • North Korea took great risks in the latest launch, according to Panda, in choosing to launch a missile "that is still in development with a 75% failure rate to date in such a heavily populated area..." An early failure in flight, says Panda, could have propelled the missile into population centers, causing great destruction." • • • HOW WILL THE US RESPOND? There hasn't been a flight of B-1B Lancer conventional bombers from Guam since early August, not since North Korea levied its threats to strike Guam. The US, Panda believes, may feel compelled to fly bombers near North Korea to reassure Japan of its resolve because one of North Korea’s objectives with these kinds of launches is to drive a wedge between Japan and the US. Regarding political and diplomatic signaling, Panda says the Trump administration "played its cards close to its chest after the launch. Trump reportedly spoke with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on the phone and the Department of Defense released a statement assessing the launch, but the administration released no prominent public statement." • Perhaps US reticence to say much was the result of Secretary Tillerson being "burned" by publicly praising North Korea for its "restraint," only to be answered by NK's launch of three presumed Scuds on Saturday, followed by the Tuesday missile Japan fly-over. According to Panda, several analysts and commentators will argue for missile defense as a solution, "but the US Navy’s and Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force’s Sea of Japan-based Aegis destroyers would find it hard to manoeuver into firing position on the right trajectory every time NK fires a mid-range missile. • So, the US response will probably consist of a renewed call for sanctions, punishment, and isolation of North Korea at international forums, including the UN Security Council. We know this will be insufficient to deter future tests by Kim Jong-un, who has now proven that his new long-range missiles will allow him to try more aggressive coercive measures with the US and its allies. • • • THE NORTH KOREA PROBLEM IMPACTS US-EGYPTIAN RELATIONS. The Washington Post's Adam Taylor reported on August 24 that the US State Department announced it will withhold millions of dollars in aid to Egypt, a long-standing US ally and a major recipient of American security assistance. More than $290 million -- $96 million in aid and delayed $195 million in military funding -- would be cut or delayed. Egypt's foreign ministry responded angrily, accusing Washington of “poor judgment.” And, the WP took its usual Progressive view : "the move heartened many critics of Trump's foreign policy, who cheered the fact that the administration based its decision on Egypt's poor human rights record. Martin Indyk, the executive vice president of the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, said Trump making a stand on human rights was a “head-scratcher” -- even “Obamaesque.” The truth is that human rights has little to do with the US move, as the WP pointed out far down in its report : "the focus of the move may not be Egypt, but rather North Korea." • Gardiner Harris and Declan Walsh of the New York Times suggest that a key factor in the decision to curtail aid to Cairo is its ongoing relationship with Pyongyang. “Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson’s top priority has been to increase North Korea’s economic and diplomatic isolation, and he has asked foreign leaders in almost every meeting that they cut ties with Pyongyang. The pressure on Egypt appears to be part of a broader US push to make it clear that North Korea is a problem for the world, not just Washington, Seoul and Tokyo." • North Korea, so isolated that it is called the Hermit Kingdom, has been under UN sanctions since 2006. Nevertheless, it has a long history of economic relationships with other counties, and some of these relationships are still around -- North Korea's trade with China and shipping of migrant workers to Russia are not secrets. But there are others. The Washington Post's Kevin Sieff recently reviewed the trade ties between North Korea and African nations, and the Associated Press's Jon Gambrell has reported on the role of NK laborers in US-ally Gulf states. Sieff says some of the trade is "relatively benign," but there is often a military component. Reuters recently reported that two North Korean shipments to a Syrian government agency responsible for its chemical weapons program had been intercepted in August. In any case, no North Korean deal is "benign" because each one provides Pyongyang with hard currency to be used in its nuclear weapons program. • Egypt's relationship with North Korea began during the Cold War, when North Korean fighter pilots helped train their Egyptian counterparts ahead of the 1973 war with Israel. The relationship continued, with Egyptian telecom giant Orascom helping set up North Korea's mobile phone network. • Neither UN sanctions or American military aid appear to have shaken the Egypt-NK relationship. Mohamed Elmenshawy, a columnist at the Egyptian daily Al Shorouk News and Washington Bureau Chief for Alaraby TV, says : “I believe Egypt wants to have it both ways." A recent UN report showed how Egypt appeared to play both sides: Egypt helped intercept a North Korean ship carrying weapons through the Suez Canal last year, but it also was accused of illicitly procuring Scud missile parts from Pyongyang. Anthony Ruggiero, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, wrote in an article in The National Interest : “For more than a decade, under both George W. Bush and Barack Obama, the United States tolerated and sometimes even contributed directly to the deficiencies of sanctions on Pyongyang." • But, under President Trump, this ambivalence is changing. The Trump administration has made a significant push to sanction Chinese and Russian firms and individuals who do business with North Korea. Trump may have warned Egypt's President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi of possible sanctions during a July phone call, when he called on countries to “fully implement UN Security Council resolutions on North Korea, stop hosting North Korean guest workers, and stop providing economic or military benefits to North Korea,” according to a White House readout of the phone call. The US withholding aid to Egypt is shows how seriously the United States views the North Korean threat. And, in terms of breaking the UN sanctions, Egypt's alleged procurement of missile parts from North Korea is a glaring violation. Egypt has been helping North Korea since the era when Egypt was a close ally of the USSR, says Andrea Berger : "Egypt helped kick-start Pyongyang's nuclear development 40 years ago when it gifted two Soviet-made Scud missiles that North Korean scientists could reverse-engineer. North Korea did just that, and the Scud missile design became the backbone of much of the country’s ballistic missile arsenal." • But, today, there is no possible strategic partner for Egypt except the US, and Trump is using this leverage to ensure that Egypt breaks ties with North Korea. Egypt occupies a pivotal Midle East position and it is imperative for both the US and Egypt, as well as Saudi Arabia and Israel, that Egypt remain on the side of the US coalition, even though it has continuing links to China and Russia. And, of course, there is the elephant in the Middle east nuclear room -- Iran. • • • THE NORTH KOREA - IRAN MISSILE LINK. Early in August, CNBC reported that North Korea's 'No. 2' official Kim Yong Nam, chairman of the Supreme Assembly of North Korea, visited Iran. This occurred as the UN Security Council was imposing the latest round of sanctions on Pyongyang -- banning exports of North Korean coal, lead, iron ore and seafood that could reduce the Hermit Kingdom's export revenue by one-third. Iran's official IRNA news agency confirmed that Kim Yong Nam had traveled to Iran for the inauguration of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. But, since Kim stayed 10 days, the trip is seen as a front for Pyongyang to perhaps increase military cooperation and facilitate hard currency availability with Teheran. North Korea's newly built embassy in Teheran opened before Kim Yong Nam's arrival, and the North's state-run KCNA news agency said the embassy was "built to boost exchanges, contacts and cooperation between the two countries for world peace and security and international justice." • The new UN sanctions on NK were proposed to the full Security Council by the US, after China, North Korea's longtime ally and its largest trading partner, agreed to them. But, after his swearing-in ceremony, Iran's Rouhani said, "The sanctions policy in today's world is a failed and fruitless policy," according to a report from Iran's semi-official Fars news agency. Meanwhile, Kim Yong Nam is believed to have taken a delegation of other officials with him to Iran, including economic and military officials. • In July, CIA Director Mike Pompeo said in a speech at the Intelligence and National Security Alliance that he had : "created two new mission centers aimed at focusing on putting a dagger in the heart of the Korean problem and the problem in Iran." After the second ICBM test in July, defense experts said it appears North Korea's long-range ballistic missile has the range to reach at least half of the continental United States, and Iran could have an ICBM capability similar to North Korea within a few years -- it recently successfully launched a satellite-carrying rocket seen as a precursor to long-range ballistic missile weapon capability. • Iran and North Korea have longstanding missile development cooperation. Early generations of Iranian missiles are thought to be adapted North Korean missiles. For example, experts say that Teheran's Shahab-3 ballistic missile, capable of reaching Saudi Arabia from Iranian land, is based on technology from North Korea's Nodong-1 rockets. Iran's Ghadir small submarine, which conducted a cruise-missile test earlier this year, is remarkably similar to those used by Pyongyang. If Iran successfully tests a missile on a North Korean-style miniature submarine, Teheran’s ability to threaten US ships in the Strait of Hormuz would increase greatly. • • • HAVE IRAN AND NK MOVED FROM MISSILES TO NUCLEAR COOPERATION? There remains a question as to the Iran - NK cooperation on nuclear weapons development. Some former CIA analysts have said Iranian scientists have attended nuclear tests in North Korea. There are recent reports North Korea may be preparing for its sixth nuclear test, and it's possible that new international sanctions could provoke Pyongyang to undertake the test as a form of protest. Teheran's hands are 'officially' tied under the international nuclear agreement, although there's serious speculation that Iran could be secretly working with North Korea on nuclear research jointly carried out on the Korean Peninsula. Israeli experts say their close cooperation on missiles is reason to believe they could be cooperating in the nuclear area. • Another article in The Diplomat, by Samuel Ramani, published on May 13, reported : "On May 2, 2017, the Iranian military conducted a missile test from a Ghadir-class submarine in the Strait of the Hormuz. Even though the missile test failed, the close similarities between Iran’s Ghadir-class submarine and North Korea’s Yono-class miniature submarine alarmed Western policymakers." US defense experts say Iran’s missile test was proof of continued Teheran-Pyongyang military cooperation, and that Iran’s ballistic missile program continues to rely on North Korean military technology, despite severe sanctions on NK. But, says Ramani : "Even though parallel missile evelopments are powerful indicators of collaboration between Iran and North Korea, American and Israeli analysts have intensely debated the nature of the Teheran-Pyongyang partnership." Former US Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton has been one of the most outspoken proponents of the view that Iran-North Korea cooperation is largely transactional. In an early 2107 interview, Bolton declared that if North Korea gets nuclear missiles, “Iran could have that capability the next day” because of Teheran’s long-standing defense contracts with the DPRK and Pyongyang’s "desperate need for hard currency." Experts say there is compelling evidence that Teheran-Pyongyang ballistic missile technology cooperation is a more mutual exchange than many US policymakers assume. Ramani quotes Israeli defense analyst Tal Inbar, who recently said that Iran purchased North Korea’s technical know-how on ballistic missile production, upgraded the DPRK missiles’ forward section, and distributed these advancements back to North Korea. The similarities between North Korean missiles launched during recent tests and Iranian technology suggests that Iran is a possible contributor to North Korea’s nuclear buildup, rather than a mere transactional partner, as Bolton has suggested. And, the NK Yono-class submarine’s undetectability helped the DPRK sink South Korea’s ROKS Cheonan ship in 2010. If Iran gains possession of similar naval capabilities equipped with sophisticated ballistic missiles, the costs of a US military confrontation with Teheran would increase greatly. It would also seriously impact the regional balance of power. Ramani states that the head of the US military in the Pacific, Admiral Harry Harris, recently underlined that US adherence to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty prevents it from developing short- and medium-range missile deterrents to neutralize Iran’s missile developments. • And, if Iran solves the problems in North Korean missile technology and gains a 2,500-mile strike range, Teheran’s ability to militarily challenge Israel, Saudi Arabia, Europe, and the United States will strengthen considerably. This prospect explains why Iran undoubtedly views its partnership with North Korea as a key component of its broader strategy to reshape the balance of power in the Middle East. [Samuel Ramani can be followed on Twitter at samramani2 and on Facebook at Samuel Ramani. Ankit Panda, a senior editor at The Diplomat can be reached at < www.ankitpanda.com > ] • • • WHAT ELSE SHOULD WE CONSIDER? A lot. • CHINA. China plays a critical role in supporting Pyongyang’s illegal weapons activities. From the start, North Korea’s nuclear program with Chinese technology acquired through a network in Pakistan, and on into the decades of Beijing’s logistical, financial, and diplomatic support, China has admitted nothing about its active participation in fostering the buildup of the NK nuclear and missile programs. It is utterly untrue, as every US President has said, that : “China shares the American concern regarding nuclear proliferation; it is in fact the country most immediately affected by it.” • Joseph Bosco -- China country director in the office of the Secretary of Defense under President G.W. Bush, and now a fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies and a senior associate at the Institute for Taiwan-American Studies -- says China has repeatedly spread dangerous and illegal technology directly to North Korea, and through it to a network of rogue states. It has been not only a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction, but a proliferator of proliferators. Moreover, it has refused to join more than 100 other nations in the Proliferation Security Initiative, which provides for the interdiction of nuclear materials and missile components." China adds insult to injury when it portrays the North Korea crisis as an American problem, to be solved by Washington, says Bosco : "If President Trump concludes that China cannot or will not restrain North Korea, and that military action is therefore necessary, Beijing will bear a major part of the responsibility for that decision and its consequences.....the perennial North Korea crisis has actually served China’s strategic interests as a major diplomatic distraction and resource diversion for the West. It has enabled China to posture as a responsible international stakeholder and a good-faith negotiating partner entitled to some deference on other issues such as currency, trade, Taiwan, and the South China Sea." Bosco says President Trump realizes this : "Continued pressure on Beijing to address the regional security crisis North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles present now, and clear warnings to Pyongyang for its continued provocations." • TURKEY. Al-Monitor reported last week that Iran and Turkey are moving to re-establish their roles as the Middle East's axis. Despite their major differences over key regional crises in past years, shared threats and shared objectives are once again pushing Iran and Turkey together. As the wars in Iraq and Syria, from an Iranian point of view, are coming closer to an end, a common threat in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region is causing both countries to put aside differences and unify efforts to prevent a domino effect that might harm their national security -- namely the Kurdish dream of an independent state. On August 15, Iran’s Chief of Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri made a rare official visit to Turkey to meet his counterpart, General Hulusi Akar, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to Bagheri, the visit was “necessary to exchange views and more cooperation on the military subjects and different regional issues, issues related to the two countries' security, security of borders and fighting against terrorism.” Erdogan then said on August 21 that Turkey and Iran are discussing a joint military campaign in northern Iraq against the Kurdistan Workers Party and the Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan. Erdogan’s words were later denied by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but, prior to the denial, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bahram Qassemi told reporters : “The trip was exceptional in that we did not have such visits at such levels for the past 40 years....The talks were important and decisive....Both countries are going to take necessary steps to make sure Iraqi Kurdistan doesn't split from Iraq, by any means necessary. For Iran, ending the war in Syria needs Turkish assistance, given its good ties with several sunni groups that Teheran describes as 'terrorists.' ” Either Turkey will have to abandon these groups or convinces them to disarm. Al-Monitor says Kurdistan’s planned referendum worries both Iran and Turkey. To Teheran, the referendum -- and possible independence -- introduces three threats. First, a Kurdish state in Iraq could ignite a Kurdish domino effect in the region, enhancing the independence dreams of Kurds in Syria, Turkey and perhaps Iran. The second threat is that an independent Kurdish state could mean the partition of Iraq after a possible Iraqi sunni call for a similar referendum, ending with at least three small unstable nations as Iran's neighbors. Iraqi shiites are stressed internally by their renewed divisions caused by Saudi Arabia’s successful attempts to attract some factions to its camp. And, if Iraq is divided, Syrian borders will be fuzzy again, with no guarantee of cooperation with the Iranians and their allies. The third threat for Teheran’s is that an independent Kurdistan, given the Kurdish autonomous region’s good ties with Israel, will give Israel the chance to spy on Iran. This will pose a great threat to the Islamic Republic, the Islamic revolution and, thus, to Iran’s national security and stability. And, for the future, we have to ask if an Iran-Turkey alliance would necessarily draw Turkey into the Iran-North Korea effort to create a nuclear missile capability -- that result would move the NK-Iran nuclear threat to Europe's doorstep. • QATAR. Al-Monitor reported on Sunday that Qatar’s August 23 decision to return its ambassador to Teheran could strengthen Iran’s hand in Syria, while further blurring the sunni-shiite fault line in the region. Qatar said it aspires to “strengthen bilateral relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran in all fields,” which has inflamed the crisis in the Gulf. Anwar Gargash, the United Arab Emirates minister of state for foreign affairs, said the decision “embarrasses Qatar.” So, with Qatar, Iran has now has a second “sunni” state in its regional network, following Turkey. Al-Monitor says Yemen will surely also be on the agenda for future Iran-Qatar bilateral talks. Saudi Arabia can hardly be happy about Iran-Qatar consultations on Yemen, which is at the southern tip of the Arabian peninsula. • • • DEAR READERS, that leaves Israel. Al-Monitor says an Israeli security official told their US counterparts last week : “'Whatever happens here after the war in Syria will shape the face of the Middle East, and perhaps the entire world, for generations. If the cease-fire agreement does not also include a shiite retreat, and not just a victory over the sunnis, a disaster will happen. You’re disturbing the incredibly delicate balance in the Middle East. The immediate price will be paid by those who live here, but in the end, the bill, once again, will be sent to you.” Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, says Al-Monitor, "sees this current diplomatic effort as a continuation of his efforts to thwart the Iranian nuclear deal. He is doing exactly what he did during 2009-14, hoping that he’ll have greater success this time.” In addition to the August 18 visit to Washington by a senior Israeli security delegation led by Yossi Cohen, the head of Mossad, Al-Monitor reports : “This big picture is what the Israelis are also presenting to the Russians. Cohen and the new National Security Council head, Meir Ben-Shabbat, flew with Netanyahu to a meeting with Putin. Netanyahu told Putin that Iran’s presence in Syria is a threat to Israel, the Middle East and the entire world. He noted that Iran continues to threaten Israel's existence, to support terrorist organizations and to develop its missile capabilities....Intelligence presented to Putin was meant to show him that Iran is not the stabilizing and responsible regional actor the Russians believe, but the complete opposite.” Israel is concerned about what’s happening in Syria and Lebanon, where work reportedly is beginning to build a factory to produce precision rockets in Lebanon, using Iranian and North Korean technology. The entire Middle East is concerned about this. Israel does not intend to let such a factory reach the production stage. It hopes that Moscow and Teheran will at some point grasp this.” • The web is so tangled that nobody is sure how all the parts connect. But, it is certain that the Iran-North Korea nuclear missile joint program will spread to the Middle East and threaten the West unless the United States, its sunni Gulf Arab allies, and Israel are determined to use whatever means are required to prevent it.