North Korea, Containment, Missile Defense Strategies, and Anti-Semitism at the UNHRC and the Palestinian Authority

THE REAL NEWS TODAY IS AN UPDATE ON WORLD EVENTS. • • • HARVEY MOVES INTO LOUSIANA. On Tuesday, President Trump arrived in Texas to see the damage caused by Harvey, now a tropical storm, and demonstrate his commitment to a region in the grips of a historic natural disaster. At least 30 people have been killed, and parts of the Houston area broke the record for rainfall from a single storm anywhere in the continental US. The tropical storm made a second landfall near Port Arthur early on Wednesday. Port Arthur was in practical terms isolated Wednesday as Harvey's rains flooded most major roads out of the city and swamped a shelter for victims fleeing the storm that ravaged the Houston area. The crisis deepened in the coastal city after Harvey rolled ashore overnight for the second time in six days, this time hitting southwestern Louisiana on the 12th anniversary of Hurricane Katerina. Port Arthur’s mayor, Derrick Freeman, urged residents to get to higher ground and to avoid becoming trapped in attics, psoting on Facebook : "The city is underwater right now but we are coming!” In Louisiana, forecasters warned of potential tornadoes forming in northeast part of the state and across southern and central portions of Mississippi. Louisiana Governor John Edwards told “Fox & Friends” Wednesday morning the “worst case scenario has not happened” and officials were hopeful they would get through the next 24 hours without much damage. The Governor said : “We need to get this storm moving, get it overland and let it dissipate. Thus far, things are not going as we had feared.” Before it breaks up, Harvey could creep as far east as Mississippi by Thursday, meaning New Orleans, where Hurricane Katrina unleashed its full wrath in 2005, is in Harvey's path. • Meanwhile, the US military is mobilizing resources to help Texas authorities cope with devastating and life-threatening flooding brought on by Harvey. The entire Texas National Guard has been mobilized but more help will be needed as floods ravage Houston, officials said. Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Sunday signed an agreement with the Defense Department approving a “dual status” command that authorizes one commander to control both active duty and National Guard forces, Pentagon spokesman Colonel Robert Manning told reporters Monday. The military’s Randolph-Seguin auxiliary airfield at Joint Base San Antonio has been designated as a forward staging area for the distribution of supplies and equipment. The Pentagon sent to Joint Reserve Base Fort Worth a search-and-rescue unit with nine rotary-wing aircraft, two fixed-wing aircraft, para-rescue teams and planners. The Defense Logistics Agency has provided 11 generators, 50,000 gallons of gasoline and 50,000 gallons of diesel fuel. Colonel Manning said an unspecified number of active-duty military units are en route to the staging area “in anticipation of a possible request.” There has been no immediate tasking for active-duty forces as of now. The Texas National Guard has mobilized about 2,400 personnel and is prepared to mobilize up to 5,000 more in support of civil authorities. The Texas guard has 16 aircraft conducting day and night wide-area search-and-rescue missions along the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Houston, including 10 UH-60 Black Hawk, four UH-72 Lakota and two CH-47 Chinook helicopters. The New York Air National Guard has provided one C-130 cargo plane, three HH-60 search-and-rescue helicopters and two C-17 heavy transport planes. Six additional helicopters are on their way to Texas from Utah, Nebraska and North Carolina Army National Guard. Seven fixed-wing aircraft are being dispatched from the US Coast Guard and the US Air National Guard. The Army is providing 200 Humvee trucks, 218 high-water vehicles, 15 wreckers and 19 fuel-container vehicles. US Northern Command, based in Colorado Springs, is responsible for the military’s support to FEMA, state and local response efforts. The military considers response to natural disasters as one of its “core capabilities” but conducts these operations in support of civilian agencies. The US military has sharpened its disaster-relief skills mostly in overseas operations. US forces assisted the Japanese government in the aftermath of an earthquake and tsunami in 2011. In 2013 it helped with Typhoon Haiyan relief in the Philippines. US forces were deployed to Nepal in the aftermath of the 2015 earthquake there. Following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, US Coast Guard helicopters crews plucked people off the rooftops of flooded homes in New Orleans, in rescues of more than 24,000 residents from flooded areas, and evacuations of 9,400. • Fox News reporteed Wednesday that officials are warning that Texas floodwaters could persist until October. Authorities expect the death toll to rise as the waters recede and they are able to take full stock of the death and destruction from the catastrophic storm. Earlier on Wednesday, acting Homeland Security Secretary Elaine Duke said federal government agencies would help those affected for as long as needed : "We expect a many-year recovery in Texas and the federal government is in this for the long haul. We will help the people of Texas for as long as they need." • Duke said while officials were monitoring the situation in Louisiana, the focus remained on the greater Houston area, which saw more than 50 inches of rain after Harvey made landfall Saturday. With at least 13,000 rescued in the Houston area and surrounding cities and counties, more people were still trying to escape from their inundated homes. FEMA administrator Brock Long said more than 230 shelters are operating in Texas, housing more than 30,000 people : "We're also calling on other states through emergency management assistance compacts. We're still in lifesaving, life sustaining mode. Shelters are obviously not ideal and unfortunately people are going to be there for quite some time." • The good news is that flood waters are beginning to recede, and as Harvey moves east, the weather forecast will improve. But, some neighborhood are still in danger as a levee along Cypress Creek in the northern part of the country could fail and swamp a subdivision where some residents ignored a mandatory evacuation order. The water in two reservoirs that protect downtown Houston from flooding was likely to crest Wednesday at levels slightly below those that were forecast, officials said. • There are many ways to help the victims of Harvey -- just google 'help Harvey victime' if you want to contribute to the relief effort. • • • NORTH KOREA IS AS BELLICOSE AS EVER. While the UN Security Council was busy on Tuesday unanimously adopting a statement condemning what it called North Korea’s “outrageous actions” in launching a ballistic missile over Japan on Tuesday and launching three missiles on Saturday and demanding that North Korea cease all missile testing, there was no suggestion that the Security Council was ready to impose tougher sanctions. North Korea has repeatedly conducted missile launches in recent months, despite being barred from doing so under UN rules. And, at the same time, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, called the latest launching a “curtain-raiser” and warned of more missile tests in the Pacific. President Trump said in an earlier statement that “all options are on the table.” And Japanese citizens, some of whom received a beeping alert on their cellphones just four minutes after the projectile was fired, may be concerned about their pacifist Constitution. • The Associated Press reported that North Korea’s state media says leader Kim Jong-un has called for more ballistic missile launches into the Pacific, just one day after it flew a missile designed to carry a nuclear payload over Japan. The Korean Central News Agency said Wednesday that Kim expressed great satisfaction with the launch, calling it a “meaningful prelude” to containing Guam, the US Pacific territory and military hub. The agency says Kim said the country needs to conduct more ballistic missile tests to the Pacific to advance the capabilities of its strategic force, and it confirmed that the missile fired Tuesday was the Hwasong-12 intermediate range missile it recently threatened to fire toward Guam. The" BBC said that for the first time, North Korea's official news agency KCNA admitted deliberately firing a ballistic missile across Japan. Previous projectiles which crossed the mainland were later claimed to have been satellite launches. • The BBC reported on Wednesday that NK state media also repeated threats to the US Pacific island of Guam, which it called "an advanced base of invasion." The BBC report stated that "Russia and China said US military activity in the region was partly to blame for the increase in tensions, and urged negotiations." • • • PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS TALK IS OVER. President Trump, in a statement released by the White House, said the world had "received North Korea's latest message loud and clear. This regime has signalled its contempt for its neighbors, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behavior. Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime's isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table." • Reuters reported that President Trump on Wednesday said “talking is not the answer” to what Reuters called "the tense standoff with North Korea over its nuclear missile development." But, Reuters quoted Defense Decretary James Mattis as swiftly asserting that the United States "still has diplomatic options." • Trump's point is well-taken. The President tweeted : “The US has been talking to North Korea, and paying them extortion money, for 25 years. Talking is not the answer!” The US Congressional Research Service reports that between 1995 and 2008, the United States provided North Korea with over $1.3 billion in assistance. Slightly more than 50% was for food and about 40% for energy assistance. The assistance was part of a nuclear deal that North Korea later violated. Since early 2009, the United States has provided virtually no aid to North Korea, though periodically there have been discussions about resuming large-scale food aid. • Later, when asked by reporters if the US is out of diplomatic solutions with North Korea, Defense Secretary Mattis replied : “No. We are never out of diplomatic solutions. We continue to work together, and the minister and I share a responsibility to provide for the protection of our nations, our populations and our interests.” Mattis was speaking before a meeting with his South Korean counterpart at the Pentagon. Both MAttis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson have repeatedly emphasized finding a diplomatic solution to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Earlier this month, Mattis told reporters the US effort “is diplomatically led. It has diplomatic traction. It is gaining diplomatic results.” But, the evidence this weekend makes efforts to find a diplomatic solution seem very much like pie-in-the-sky noise. • Perhaps in the white hat / black hat roles being taken by the President and his Secretaries, the most important element comes from other quarters. The US Defense Department’s Missile Defense Agency and the crew of the USS John Paul Jones conducted a “complex missile defense flight test” off Hawaii early on Wednesday, resulting in the intercept of a medium-range ballistic missile target. The agency’s director, Lieutenant General Sam Greaves, called the test “a key milestone” in giving US Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense ships an enhanced capability, but did not mention North Korea. • And, in Geneva, American disarmament ambassador Robert Wood, addressing the UN-sponsored Conference on Disarmament, called for "concerted action” by the international community to pressure North Korea into abandoning its banned nuclear and missile program by fully enforcing economic sanctions. America has repeatedly urged China, North Korea’s main ally and trading partner, to do more to rein in Pyongyang. Speaking during a visit to the Japanese city of Osaka, British Prime Minister Theresa May called on China to put more pressure on North Korea. Prime Minister May said that Beijing had a key role in the international response to Pyongyang's "reckless provocation." Asked about Mrs. May's comments, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said some “relevant sides” were only selectively carrying out the UN resolutions by pushing hard on sanctions yet neglecting to push for a return to talks. Hua said this was not the attitude “responsible countries” should have when the “smell of gunpowder” remained strong over the Korean peninsula, adding, “When it comes to sanctions, they storm to the front but when it comes to pushing for peace they hide at the very back." • Re-read yesterday's blog to get a better feel for the legitimacy of China's portrayal of its efforts to "rein in" its client state North Korea. • • • A CONTAINMENT VIEW OF NK. War on the Rocks, a website that reports on national security, defense and military that publishes articles presented with minimal bias, published a report on Tuesday by Vince A. Manzo and John K. Warden that states : "The North Korea policy of the Donald Trump administration has been mired in a morass of contradiction and bluster. But there might be a silver lining : There is an indication that the administration will follow its predecessors and attempt to deny North Korea the ability to hold the United States at risk with nuclear weapons. If effectively implemented as a part of a comprehensive deterrence strategy, this approach would give the United States and its allies the best chance of containing a nuclear-armed North Korea and avoiding nuclear war." Manzo and Warden say the Bush and Obama administrations, in attempting to formulate an effective strategy, "articulated an important strategic principle : The United States will attempt to deny North Korea the ability to hold the US homeland at risk with nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). This is not, however, the same as saying that the United States will prevent North Korea from testing an ICBM or deploying an operational ICBM force, a goal that does not seem possible without paying an unacceptable cost. Rather, the principle is a signal of US intent to deny North Korea the ability to use the threat of nuclear strikes against the US homeland as coercive leverage." They cite the Bush Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system that was expanded by Obama. The GMD system is designed to defend against North Korean and Iranian ICBMs, and Manzo and Warden say : "The US decision to deploy this system demonstrates that, from a strategic planning perspective, the United States saw a North Korean ICBM as a distinct possibility and took steps to ensure that extended deterrence to Japan and South Korea would remain viable even if North Korea deployed a nuclear-capable missile that could range the continental United States." • The authors ask how the United States could fail to deter North Korean nuclear use? Their answer is : "Pyongyang knows that it cannot use nuclear weapons and other capabilities to defeat US and allied military forces. Instead, Kim Jong Un’s more plausible theory of victory is a strategy that attempts to use nuclear coercion to persuade the United States that the costs and risks of overthrowing the Kim regime are too high. In this sense, North Korea’s initial attempt at asymmetric escalation using nuclear weapons is more likely to be a limited strike against regional military targets than a massive strike against the continental United States. Pyongyang would attempt to degrade the ability of the US to flow forces to the Korean Peninsula, while demonstrating a propensity for controlled risk-taking. But critically, North Korea would retain a survivable reserve nuclear force to threaten destruction of major US population centers if the United States does not back down." Since, according to Manzo and Warden, giving North Korea the flexibility to use asymmetric escalation with the latent assurance that its own nuclear stockpile would not be destroyed could actually lead to NK's limited regional use of nuclear weapons and even limited regional "wars," the best strategy for the United States would be to "field damage limitation capabilities, a combination of strike and missile defense armaments that would allow the United States to disarm the majority of North Korea’s nuclear weapons capability and prevent significant retaliatory strikes against US cities. If the United States has a credible damage limitation option, the Kim regime is more likely to calculate that crossing the nuclear threshold would be a strategy for suicide, not survival, because North Korea would lack a reliable second-strike capability to deter regime change." But, they say that this strategy requires an improved US homeland defense : "The GMD system has well-documented limitations, and the Trump administration should make prudent investments to fix the program, emphasizing the need for cost-effective, reliable capabilities. In addition, the United States and its allies should field a combination of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance and strike capabilities that can threaten North Korea’s road-mobile transporter erector launchers and ballistic-missile submarines." • As with all containment scenarios, Manzo and Warden counsel "deterring North Korea from initiating a war and, if that fails, deterring North Korea from using nuclear weapons in that war. To strengthen deterrence of North Korean adventurism, the United States and South Korea also should improve their combined conventional force posture on the peninsula, particularly their ability to fight and win limited wars. To counter the threat of regional nuclear strikes, the United States, South Korea, and Japan should improve their ability to strike and defend against North Korea’s theater-range missiles. In truth, North Korea may see nuclear coercion targeting Japan or South Korea as a more likely path to terminating a war than directly threatening the United States." Because North Korea "may be driven to nuclear use by misinterpreting certain military actions as a prelude to invasion....Taking steps to diminish tension, reduce misunderstanding, and assure Pyongyang that the United States and its allies would only pursue regime change in the most extreme circumstances would decrease the risk of miscalculation....In certain wartime circumstances, the United States and its allies might calculate that pursuing regime change in Pyongyang, despite the enormous costs, is the least bad option. In that case, disarming as much of North Korea’s nuclear force as possible would be a necessity. But in many other scenarios, especially ones in which North Korea has not yet crossed the nuclear threshold, US and allied interests would be better served by conveying to Kim Jong-un that de-escalation is his best chance of survival....Effectively deterring a nuclear-armed North Korea requires measured resolve backed by real strength. By rejecting vulnerability to a North Korean nuclear strike and improving damage limitation capabilities, the United States and its allies can challenge North Korea’s theory of coercive nuclear escalation, inducing caution in both crisis and conflict." [Vince A. Manzo (manzov@cna.org) is a Research Analyst with the Strategic Initiatives Group at the Center for Naval Analysis (CNA). John K. Warden (john.k.warden@saic.com) is a Senior Policy Analyst on the Strategic Analysis & Assessments team at Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC).] • • • THAAD AND THE IRON DOME. Reading Manzo and Warden leads quickly to a consideration of Israel's experience with Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel is fighting to block rockets from striking its major population centers with its deployed Iron Dome missile defense system to intercept them. Iron Dome is a mobile air defense system developed by Israel with US financial support. It is designed to intercept short-range rockets and artillery shells. • Deutshce Welle published an article on April 26 about missile defense systems. DW says the Iron Dome was fast-tracked after the second Gulf War of 1991, in which NATO's defense system was able to shoot down numerous Soviet-style Scud rockets, which the army of Saddam Hussein fired against Saudi Arabia and Israel. The experience of the Gulf War; according to DW, made Israel speed up work on its own comprehensive missile defense system consisting of several layers. Iron Dome is the centerpiece of the country's air defenses and can intercept even missiles with a much shorter range of only 5 to 70 kilometers. During the massive bombardment with missiles from Gaza between 2012 and 2014, the Iron Dome, according to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), managed to intercept 547 out of 2,968 missiles that were fired from Gaza into Israel" -- after a computerized evaluation of the likelihood of an incoming rocket hitting a populated target. Israelisar now used to the sirens that sound when Hamas fires a rocket, and the Israeli hit rate is reportedly at 90%. Do Americans want to live with a NK threat that leads to sirens?? • There are other missile defense systems, including the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) which is currently being set up in South Korea. DW says what all such missile defense systems have in common is that "they use highly precise ground-, sea- or air based radar to identify the fired missiles and calculate their flight path accurately and in 3D. The computer is also able to detect which missiles actually pose a threat and which ones don't. Thus, the systems can prioitize which of the missiles must be shot down and which can be ignored, like missiles that are going to land in uninhabitated areas or at sea. If they find a missile that threatens a settlement or a city, they launch an interceptor missile." • There are different interceptor missile types : older interceptors carry an explosive load that explodes when it gets close to the target and destroys the attacking missile; they are mostly used to defend against short- and shorter medium-range missiles. Since the early 21st century, western armies are switching to interceptors that don't carry an explosive load, but, rather, are designed to intercept even long-range missiles. • • • THE THAAD SYSTEM. The US is currently installing a THAAD system in South Korea that uses such modern missiles exclusively. These so-called hit-to-kill vehicles are projectiles carried into space by rockets. Once the vehicles separate from the rockets, they are on a collision course with the target missile to destroy it on impact. To make sure the vehicles don't miss the target, they can course-correct via tiny engines located on all sides of the vehicle. • But, says DW, there is practically no experience with intercepting medium-range and intercontinental missiles in a real war scenario. Why? Because these missiles are meant to deliver nuclear warheads and no country has done that since World War II. Test-runs prove that it's possible to hit and destroy medium range missiles in flight. Little is publicly known about THAAD tests, but the US military has recently reported on successful interceptor missile tests in the Pacific. • Some experts believe NK possesses a considerable arsenal of not only medium-range but also intercontinental ballistic missiles. What is certain is that North Korea, since early 2016, has repeatedly fired short- and medium-range missiles, once even from a submarine. It still remains unclear whether the country is able to fit a miniaturized nuclear bomb into a war head that a missile can actually carry. But, the threat is real. • • • THE ISRAELI PRODUCT BLACKLIST. Israel Today published on Wednesday an article about the upcoming “blacklist” of major international companies with business ties to Israeli communities in Judea, Samaria, the Golan Heights and eastern Jerusalem. The Blacklist represents yet another attempt by anti-Israel actors in the United Nations to single out and demonize the world’s only Jewish state, experts say. The UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) had voted to approve the database of businesses last year, defying objections from the US and Israel. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights -- Prince Zeid bin Ra’ad Zeid al-Hussein -- submitted a draft of the blacklist to the countries where the businesses to be Blacklisted are based. He is expected to receive a response from those nations by Friday, and the UNHRC will publish the database by the end of this year. American firms on the list include Caterpillar, TripAdvisor, Priceline and Airbnb, according to the Washington Post. While the list will have no legal consequences for Israel or the companies involved, its opponents say it could put pressure on the UN Security Council to take action. Supporters of the Blacklist compare it to efforts to target international businesses that were involved in apartheid-era South Africa, as well as Arab-led boycotts of Israel as a means to pressure it to change its policies regarding the Palestinians and the disputed territories. • The reality is that the Blacklist undermines the credibility of the UNHRC in specific and the UN in general. • Since taking over as UN Secretary-General in January, Portugal’s António Guterres has attempted to take a more evenhanded approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after years of disproportionate criticism of Israel by the world body. Guterres told the World Jewish Congress in April : “As secretary-general of the United Nations, I consider that the state of Israel needs to be treated as any other state. I have already had the opportunity to show that I’m ready to abide by that principle even when that forces me to take some decisions that create some uncomfortable situations,” he added, referring a move he made to squash a report by former UN official Rima Khalaf that called Israel an “apartheid state.” • For Israel and the US, the question is whether Guterres can stop the release of the Blacklist because of the dominance of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. The Trump administration recently urged the human rights commissioner, Hussein, not to publish the Blacklist. US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley called the list “shameful” and “counterproductive” to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process : “It is an attempt to provide an international stamp of approval to the anti-Semitic BDS movement. It must be rejected." In June, the US indicated that it may replace its membership in the UNHRC with “other means” for addressing human rights issues, unless the UNHRC significantly reforms its conduct and anti-Israel bias. More than 20 US states have passed legislation in recent years opposing the BDS movement, by requiring state institutions to cease any business with companies that boycott the Jewish state. • What is almost sure is that the Blacklist will be published and that the European Union will honor its recommendation to label Blacklisted Israeli products. • • • DEAR READERS, while Israel is being pummeled at the UN and in Europe, Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has rejected American demands that he stop using foreign financial aid to pay stipends and salaries to the families of jailed Palestinian terrorists. Abbas met last week with US envoys Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt as part of President Trump's efforts to restart Middle East peace talks. Israel Today says that according to Israeli journalists present at the meeting, Kushner, who is Trump's son-in-law, restated the long-standing demand that the Palestinian Authority not reward terrorism with financial gain. Congress has repeatedly threatened to halt all foreign aid to the Palestinian Authority over the payments to jailed terrorists, nearly all of whom are incarcerated in Israel for carrying out attacks on Jewish men, women and children. But, Abbas' response was to "inform Kushner that he would never stop paying these salaries until his dying day, even if this cost him the presidency." • While we consider North Korean nuclear-capable ICBMs and the possibility of military confrontation in east Asia, we must not forget the degrading spectacle of anti-Semitism in Europe and the Moslem world. We might well ask, despite his princely status, whether Jordan's Zeid bin Ra’ad Zeid al-Hussein should be head of the UNHRC while Israel is being so badly treated. Where is the even-handedness at an UNHRC that is preparing to "Blacklist" anything that relates to Israel. • Perhaps it is time for President Trump to say of the UNHRC and the Palestinian Authority, as he says of North Korea, that "the time for talk is over" -- and get on with sanctioning both entities for their anti-Semitic positions on jihadist terrorists and on Blacklists.