Message to North Korea Elites : US Defense Secretary Mattis Warns North Korea Faces "the destruction of its people"

THE REAL NEWS TODAY CAN ONLY BE ABOUT THE NORTH KOREA - UNITED STATES NUCLEAR STANDOFF. There are a lot of pieces to this puzzle. • • • THE MOST-IGNORED PIECE OF THE PUZZLE. The UK Mirror and Canadian news outlet CBC reported on Wednesday that North Korea has released on humanitarian grounds a Canadian pastor serving a life sentence in the country. State media in the Hermit Kingdom said Rim Hyon Su has been released on sick bail. CBC News reported on Tuesday that Daniel Jean, the national security adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, had arrived in North Korea to negotiate his release. The move comes as fears grow of a nuclear war between the US and North Korea. NK state media announced : "Rim Hyon Su, a Canadian civilian, was released on sick bail according to the decision of the Central Court of the DPRK on August 9, 2017, from the humanitarian viewpoint." Also known as Hyeon Soo Lim, who served at one of the largest churches in Canada, was sentenced to hard labor for life in December 2015 for what North Korea says was an attempt to overthrow the regime. The release of the Canadian pastor is surely being studied for its possible uspoken messages -- is Kim Jong-un signalling that he wants to talk by waving a white flag of sorts in the person of the Canadian pastor? His release came as the US military was releasing pictures of supersonic B-1B bombers flying from Guam -- after North Korea threatened to strike an American airbase on the Pacific island. Two US Air Force B-1B jets, joined by Japanese F-2 fighter jets, had taken part in a weekend 10-hour mission over the Korean peninsula where they were joined by South Korean Air Force KF-16 fighter jets. They then performed a pass over the Pilsung Range before leaving South Korean airspace and returning to Guam. The US Air Force said : “Throughout the approximately 10-hour mission, the aircrews practiced intercept and formation training, enabling them to enhance their combined capabilities and tactical skills, while also strengthening the long standing military-to-military relationships in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region.” Pyongyang said it was "carefully examining" a plan to strike Guam, which is home to about 163,000 people, a submarine squadron, an airbase and a Coast Guard group. A Korean People's Army spokesman said in a statement broadcast by the state KCNA news agency that the plan would be put into practice at any moment once leader Kim Jong-un makes a decision. • The alert status at Andersen Airforce Base on Guam had not been changed as of Wednesday morning, according to the duty officer at the base's public affairs office. • • • A WAR OF WORDS, ICBMs AND AIRCRAFT FLYOVERS. Kim Jong-un's intentions to hit Guam were revealed shortly after President Trump announced that any threat to America would be met with "fire and fury." Trump spoke after it was anounced by the US that North Korea "has produced a mini nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles." The Washington Post's Jason Devaney reported on Tuesday that United States intelligence officials believe North Korea has mini nuclear warheads that can be delivered via its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The Washington Post reports were based on an assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency. The DIA report states : "The IC [intelligence community] assesses North Korea has produced nuclear weapons for ballistic missile delivery, to include delivery by ICBM-class missiles." But US intelligence officials told Reuters that while North Korea has accelerated its efforts to design an ICBM, a miniaturized nuclear warhead, and a nosecone robust enough to survive reentry through the Earth’s atmosphere, there is no reliable evidence it has mastered all three, much less tested and combined them into a weapon capable of hitting US targets. But, North Korea's ICBM tests last month suggested it was making technical progress, according to Japan's annual Defense White Paper. • The Washington Post also reported that North Korea has as many as 60 nuclear weapons, although some analysts don't think NK has that many. North Korea has conducted several missile tests in recent months as it continues to build an arsenal of ICBMs that are capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. It was reported on Monday that US spy satellites caught North Korea loading cruise missiles onto a boat -- which could signify that another test is imminent, or it could mean the country is shoring up its defenses in the face of threats from the West. • The UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution over the weekend that strengthened sanctions on North Korea in an effort to persuade the country to stop its nuclear weapons program and aggressive actions. Those sanctions are now in place and could slash NK's $3 billion annual export revenue by a third. Much has been made of the agreement of China and Russia to these new sanctions, but we may well ask what either Russia or China have to lose by the imposition of sanctions as long as they continue to trade with North Korea, acting as the exterior support system for the Kim Jong-un regime. • North Korea also accused the United States of devising a "preventive war" and said in another statement that any plans to execute this would be met with an "all-out war wiping out all the strongholds of enemies, including the US mainland." Washington has warned that it is ready to use force if needed to stop North Korea's ballistic missile and nuclear programs but that it prefers global diplomatic action, including sanctions. • But Trump issued his strongest warning yet for North Korea in comments to reporters in New Jersey on Tuesday : "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen." • • • THE KOREAN AND ASIAN REACTION. North Korea has made no secret of its plans to develop a nuclear-tipped missile able to strike the United States and has ignored calls to halt its weapons programs. Pyongyang says its ICBMs are a legitimate means of defence against perceived US hostility, including joint military drills with South Korea. The United States has remained technically at war with North Korea since the 1950-53 Korean conflict ended without a peace treaty. Seoul is home to roughly 10 million people and within range of massed North Korean rockets and artillery, which are said to be impossible to destroy in a first US strike. Approximately 28,000 US troops remain stationed in South Korea and others are in nearby Japan. A senior official at South Korea's presidential Blue House rejected talk of a crisis on the Korean peninsula, saying Seoul saw a high possibility of resolving the issue peacefully, saying that North Korea needs to realize that its repeated provocations are making the country more isolated and it should respond to the South's proposal for dialogue. • In Dandong, a Chinese trading hub on the border with North Korea, residents said they were unperturbed by the escalating rhetoric. A restaurant owner told the media : "North Korea always talks about war, war, war, but it never happens. We now live in peaceful times. But if war does break out it will be us ordinary people that suffer." • In Phnom Penh, Cambodian foreign minister Prak Sokhonn said he called on the North to soften its stance during a meeting with its foreign minister, Ri Yong Ho, in Manila : “We sent a message to them that all ASEAN countries are not happy with the actions of North Korea that still continue to violate the United Nations resolution,” he told reporters, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, adding “It’s an insult to the international community as a whole, and it’s a threat to peace and stability of the region.” • Guam Governor Eddie Calvo dismissed North Korea's threat and said the island was prepared for "any eventuality" with strategically placed defenses. He said he had been in touch with the White House and there was no change in the threat level. Calvo said in an online statement : "Guam is American soil....We are not just a military installation." • Madeleine Bordallo, the US Congresswoman for Guam, said she was confident forces could protect it from the "deeply troubling" North Korean nuclear threat. She called on Trump to show "steady leadership" and work with the international community to lower tensions. • Moon Seong-mook, a retired South Korean brigadier general who took part in previous military talks with North Korea, told the UK Mirror : “North Korea has no choice but to react [to Trump’s remarks] right now. They have to respond. From their point of view, the US is insulting their great leader Kim Jong-un, so they are trying to manage the situation with this kind of rhetoric. Neither country will be able to take action quickly. Right now it’s a mental fight -- a psychological tug-of-war.” • Kunihiko Miyake, former Japanese diplomat and now research director at The Canon Institute for Global Studies, said : “I don’t think North Korea is going to attack. They are not going suicidal....They are not militarily provoking, they are diplomatically provoking. They want negotiations, to strike a peace pact with the United States from a position of strength.” • Sun Zhe, co-director of the China Initiative of Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, said : “ I think the United States won’t take any land-based military action. It would bomb some military infrastructure, but it wouldn’t likely cross the 38th parallel.” • Zhang Liangui, a North Korea expert at China’s Central Party School which trains rising Chinese officials, said : “Nobody wants war. But North Korea’s pushing of its nuclear program has touched America’s red line and they won’t stand for it, so there really is a possibility of a clash. The United States might well go behind the UN and take unilateral action on North Korea. This possibility is getting greater and greater, so there is cause for concern. The United States is a superpower. It does not need to resort to nuclear weapons to win a war. So I think the chances of them using nuclear weapons is small.” • And, China told Reuters it is urging 'calm' as US and North Korea fire threats after North Korea said it was considering plans for a missile strike on the US Pacific territory of Guam. China called on all parties to avoid any words or actions that might escalate the situation and make even greater efforts to resolve the issue via talks, the ministry said in a statement sent to Reuters. • • • THE WEST REACTS. Republican Senator John McCain, chairman of the US Senate Armed Services Committee, said President Trump should tread cautiously when issuing threats to North Korea unless he is prepared to act : "I take exception to the President’s comments because you got to be sure you can do what you say you’re going to do.” • Former US diplomat Douglas Paal, now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank in Washington, said Trump should not get into a war of words with Pyongyang : “It strikes me as an amateurish reflection of a belief that we should give as we get rhetorically. That might be satisfying at one level, but it takes us down into the mud that we should let Pyongyang enjoy alone.” Paal served as a White House official under previous Republican administrations. • Lockheed Martin Corp, the Pentagon's No. 1 weapons supplier, said on Tuesday its customers are increasingly asking about missile defense systems. • France has called on North Korea and the US to "act responsibly" and de-escalate the situation regarding North Korea. Government spokesman Christophe Castener told reporters Tuesday : "We call on all sides to act responsibly.” He added that France was “preoccupied” by the situation. • Germany called on China and Russia to dissuade Pyongyang from pursuing policies that would lead to a military escalation on the Korean peninsula. Government spokeswoman Ulrike Demmer said : “The goal of the German government is to avoid a further military escalation and to settle the conflict in the North Pacific peacefully. China and Russia have a special responsibility to do everything they can to dissuade North Korea from a path of escalation.” • As we would expect, Democrats have slammed Trump for his “bombastic” and “unhinged” comments of “fire and fury.” Senator Dianne Feinstein told CNN : ”President Trump is not helping the situation with his bombastic comments.” Eliot Engel, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Trump had undermined US credibility “by drawing an absurd red line. Make no mistake : North Korea is a real threat, but the President’s unhinged reaction suggests he might consider using American nuclear weapons in response to a nasty comment from a North Korean despot." Maryland Senator Ben Cardin compared Trump’s comments to rhetoric that often comes out of Pyongyang : “President Trump’s comments were not helpful and once again show that he lacks the temperament and judgment to deal with the serious crisis the United States confronts. We should not be engaging in the same kind of bluster and provocative statements as North Korea about nuclear war.” The President spoke to Democrat Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer about his decision, and then Schumer said Trump's comments were "reckless" : “We need to be firm and deliberate with North Korea, but reckless rhetoric is not a strategy to keep America safe.” THE HISTORY OF NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM. North Korea has a military nuclear weapons program, and possibly also chemical or biological weapons. The US estimates that North Korea will be able to reliably deliver nuclear warheads via ICBM by early 2018. Since 2003, North Korea is no longer a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The country has come under sanctions after conducting a number of nuclear tests, beginning in 2006. • NK's nuclear weapons program dates back to the 1980s. Focusing on practical uses of nuclear energy and the completion of a nuclear weapon development system, North Korea began to operate facilities for uranium fabrication and conversion, and conducted high-explosive detonation tests. In 1985, North Korea ratified the NPT, but did not conclude the required safeguards agreement with theInternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) until 1992. In early 1993, the IAEA concluded during a verification procedure that there was strong evidence the NK declaration was incomplete. When North Korea refused the requested special inspection, the IAEA reported its non-compliance to the UN Security Council. In 1993, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the NPT, but suspended that withdrawal before it took effect. Under the 1994 Agreed Framework, the US agreed to facilitate the supply of two light water reactors to North Korea in exchange for North Korean disarmament. Such reactors are "more proliferation-resistant than North Korea's graphite-moderated reactors", but not "proliferation proof." Implementation of the Agreed Framework collapsed in 2002, with each side blaming the other for its failure. By 2002, Pakistan had admitted that North Korea had gained access to Pakistan's nuclear technology in the late 1990s. Based on evidence from Pakistan, Libya, and multiple confessions from North Korea itself, the US accused North Korea of non-compliance and halted oil shipments. North Korea later claimed its public confession of guilt had been deliberately misconstrued. In 2003, North Korea again announced its withdrawal from the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty. In 2005, it admitted to having nuclear weapons but vowed to close the nuclear program. • On October 9, 2006, North Korea announced it had successfully conducted its first nuclear test. An underground nuclear explosion was detected, its yield was estimated as less than a kiloton, and some radioactive output was detected. On January 6, 2007, the North Korean government confirmed that it had nuclear weapons. On March 17, 2007, North Korea told delegates at international nuclear talks that it was preparing to shut down its main nuclear facility. The agreement was reached following a series of six-party talks, involving North Korea, South Korea, China, Russia, Japan, and the United States begun in 2003. According to the agreement, a list of its nuclear programs would be submitted and the nuclear facility would be disabled in exchange for fuel aid and normalization talks with the United States and Japan. This was delayed from April due to a dispute with the United States, but on July 14, International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors confirmed the shutdown of North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear reactor and North Korea began to receive aid. This agreement fell apart in 2009, following a North Korean missile test. In April 2009, reports surfaced that North Korea has become a "fully fledged nuclear power," an opinion shared by IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei. • On May 25, 2009, North Korea conducted a second nuclear test, resulting in an explosion estimated at between 2 and 7 kilotons. The 2009 test, like the 2006 test, is believed to have occurred at Mantapsan, Kilju County, in north-eastern North Korea. In February 2012, North Korea announced that it would suspend uranium enrichment at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center and not conduct any further tests of nuclear weapons while productive negotiations involving the United States continued. This agreement included a moratorium on long-range missiles tests. Additionally, North Korea agreed to allow IAEA inspectors to monitor operations at Yongbyon. The US reaffirmed that it had no hostile intent toward the DPRK and was prepared to improve bilateral relationships, and agreed to ship humanitarian food aid to North Korea. The United States called the move "important, if limited", but said it would proceed cautiously and that talks would resume only after North Korea made steps toward fulfilling its promise. However, after North Korea conducted a long-range missile test in April 2012, the United States decided not to proceed with the food aid. • On February 11, 2013, the US Geological Survey detected a magnitude 5.1 seismic disturbance, reported to be a third underground nuclear test. North Korea officially reported it as a successful nuclear test with a lighter warhead that delivers more force than before, but did not reveal the exact yield. Multiple South Korean sources estimate the yield at 6–9 kilotons. On January 6, 2016, in Korea, the US Geological Survey detected a magnitude 5.1 seismic disturbance, reported to be a fourth underground nuclear test. North Korea claimed that this test involved a hydrogen bomb. This claim has not been verified. Expert US analysts do not believe that a hydrogen bomb was detonated. Seismic data collected so far suggest a 6–9 kiloton yield and that magnitude is not consistent with the power generated by a hydrogen bomb explosion. "What we're speculating is they tried to do a boosted nuclear device, which is an atomic bomb that has a little bit of hydrogen, an isotope in it called tritium," said Joseph Cirincione, president of the global security firm Ploughshares Fund. On February 7, 2016, a month after the alleged hydrogen bomb test, North Korea claimed to have put a satellite into orbit around the Earth. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had warned the North to not launch the rocket, and if it did and the rocket violated Japanese territory, it would be shot down. North Korea launched the rocket anyway, claiming the satellite was purely intended for peaceful, scientific purposes. Several nations, including the United States, Japan, and South Korea, have criticized the launch, and despite North Korean claims that the rocket was for peaceful purposes, it has been heavily criticized as an attempt to perform an ICBM test under the guise of a peaceful satellite launch. China also criticized the launch, however it urged "the relevant parties" to "refrain from taking actions that may further escalate tensions on the Korean peninsula." A fifth nuclear test occurred on September 9, 2016. This test yield is considered the highest among all five tests thus far, surpassing its previous record in 2013. The South Korean government had been under-estimating the test yield for years, but has acknowledged that the yield of September 2016 nuclear test is about 10 kt, despite other sources suggesting a 20 to 30 kt yield. Other nations and the United Nations have responded to North Korea's ongoing missile and nuclear development with a variety of sanctions. But, in 2017, North Korea test-launched 2 ICBMs, the second of which had sufficient range to reach the continental United States. [Go to Wikipedia for more details.] • • • TRUMP AND TILLERSON IN TANDEM. President Trump said on Wednesday that the US will always be the world’s “most powerful nation” and that its nuclear arsenal is “stronger than ever before.” President Trump added that he hopes he will never have to use the country’s nuclear arsenal, in a pair of tweets : “My first order as President was to renovate and modernize our nuclear arsenal. It is now far stronger and more powerful than ever before....Hopefully we will never have to use this power, but there will never be a time that we are not the most powerful nation in the world!” • Meanwhile, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the international community has had a "pretty good week" with respect to North Korea, as he supported Donald Trump’s comments : “I think what the President was just reaffirming is that the United States has the capability to fully defend itself and its allies from any attack, and we will do so. In response to that, North Korea’s rhetoric ratcheted up, louder and louder and more threatening." Tillerson said he hoped international pressure, including engagement of China and Russia, can persuade North Korea to reconsider its nuclear ambitions and begin a diplomatic dialogue. Tillerson said Trump is sending a strong message to North Korea “in a language Kim Jong-un would understand, telling reporters the North Korean leader does not understand diplomatic language. Tillerson said while he doesn’t believe North Korea poses an imminent threat, Trump wanted to deliver message that would avoid any miscalculation in Pyongyang. “Americans should sleep well at night,” Tillerson said. • • • DEAR READERS, South Korea is taking the North Korea threat very seriously. South Korean president Moon Jae-in has called for 'urgent' and complete overhaul of the South Korean armed services, including an enhancement of the country’s defense capabilities against North Korea’s evolving nuclear and missile technologies, Yonhap News reports. Moon Jae-in told his top military commanders on Wednesday : “I believe we might need a complete defense reform at the level of a rebirth instead of making some improvements or modifications. I believe another task now facing us is the urgent task of securing defense capabilities to counter North Korea’s nuclear and missile provocations.” • Analysts say it would take months for the US to launch a strike against North Korea. The kind of campaign that would be needed to bring battlefield success would need weeks, if not months, to sort out the logistics. Mark Hertling, a retired US Army general, told CNN the tens of thousands of US civilians, many of them military dependents, would first need to be evacuated from South Korea. The US would also need to add to its forces in the region in what Hertling called “a reinforcement of shooters.” These would include US Navy ships and submarines armed with cruise missiles, plus Air Force bombers that could operate out of bases in Japan or Guam. But, this analysis seems like a rather out-dated way to look at today's military. It is reminiscent of the French building the Maginot Line to protect their country from further aggression by Germany after WWI, while Germany was busy designing tanks and aircraft that simply blew up the Maginot fortifications when WWII started. • The Economist last weekend addressed the North Korean threat. : "All the options for dealing with the North are bad. Although America should not recognize it as a legitimate nuclear power, it must base its policy on the reality that it is already an illegitimate one. Mr Kim may gamble that his nukes give him the freedom to behave more provocatively, perhaps sponsoring terrorism in the South. He may also sell weapons to other cruel regimes or terrorist groups. The world must do what it can to thwart such plots, though some will doubtless succeed. It is worth recalling that America has been here before. When Stalin and Mao were building their first atom bombs, some in the West urged pre-emptive strikes to stop them. Happily, cooler heads prevailed. Since then, the logic of deterrence has ensured that these terrible weapons have never been used. Some day, perhaps by coup or popular uprising, North Koreans will be rid of their repulsive ruler, and the peninsula will reunite as a democracy, like Germany. Until then, the world must keep calm and contain Mr Kim." • "Cooler heads" have been "prevailing" for almost a quarter of a century when it comes to North Korea's nuclear weapons program. We are now looking down an ICBM warhead to find that the Hermit Kingdom has not altered its behavior for any of the propositions of the "cooler heads." • President George W. Bush called it the Axis of Evil -- countries which he thought were involved with terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. The countries identifed by Bush as the Axis of Evil were Iran, Iraq and North Korea. "The Axis of Evil is back," even according to CNN, and it is now Iran, Syria, Russia, China and North Korea. When it comes to negotiating away nuclear weapons from Iran or North Korea, it has been 25 years of bad road. As some commentators like to ask : "How's that working out for you?" China and Russia will not apply the pressure needed. Iran gets its nuclear technology from North Korea and possibly Russia. Syria and Hezbollah are 'client states' of Iran with an unending supply of weapons -- and we should not rule out tactical nuclear devices. Israel is the target that, as much as Guam, is on a short list for a nuclear hit. The allies of the United States must ask themselves if it is time to try something else. Donald Trump is not Dr. Strangelove -- he is not interested in nuclear warfare any more than any other western leader is. But, when all the negotiating and offers of aid have failed for more than two decades, it is time to try being more aggressive. • US Defense Secretary James Mattis said as much on Wednesday when he warned North Korea in stark terms that it faces devastation if it does not end its pursuit of nuclear weapons. General Mattis full statement was : "The United States and our allies have the demonstrated capabilities and unquestionable commitment to defend ourselves from an attack. Kim Jong Un should take heed of the United Nations Security Council's unified voice, and statements from governments the world over, who agree the DPRK poses a threat to global security and stability. The DPRK must choose to stop isolating itself and stand down its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The DPRK should cease any consideration of actions that would lead to the end of its regime and the destruction of its people. President Trump was informed of the growing threat last December and on taking office his first orders to me emphasized the readiness of our ballistic missile defense and nuclear deterrent forces. While our State Department is making every effort to resolve this global threat through diplomatic means, it must be noted that the combined allied militaries now possess the most precise, rehearsed and robust defensive and offensive capabilities on Earth. The DPRK regime's actions will continue to be grossly overmatched by ours and would lose any arms race or conflict it initiates." • If the North Korea elite can finally be made to understand that its bellicose leader's nuclear ICBM brandishing will only destroy them and their comfortable way of life in the Hermit Kingdom, perhaps the Dear Leader, who needs the NK elite to survive -- believe it -- will be forced to put his ICBMs in his pocket and find out what the US and its allies are willing to do to help him an his elite survive. What do we have to lose? As it is, we are simply sitting ducks waiting for Kim Jong-un to have a bad cup of tea some morning and take out his anger on San Francisco or Seattle.