The French Will Elect Their President on Sunday -- Will It Be Le Pen or Macron

On Sunday, French citizens will vote in the second and deciding round of their presidential election. • • • THE DEBATE. On Wednesday evening, the two candidates -- Marine Le Pen of the Front National and Emmanuel Macron of his specially-created En Marche! party -- teed off face-to-face in the only debate of the two finalist who survived the first round of voting on April 23. The debate was 2 1/2 hours of what the French media described as 'knives out" attacks. IT started with the opening statements, with interference from the other candidate, and at one point led to both the two moderators and the two candidates all talking at the same time -- a spectacle I have never before seen. • One of the big issues in this election is who is going to help the small businesses and farmers of France, and who is going to be looking out primarily for big businesses and banks. Since Macron is a banker, having made a lot of money at Rothschild, he is particularly sensitive to the accusation that he favors big business. On the first day of the campaign for the second round, Le Pen caught him out at a Whirlpool factory that is struggling -- she talked to the workers while he was closeted with the management. She has made much of this difference. So, Marine Le Pen began the debate by asking Macron : "Why didn't you help President Hollande with your great ideas -- you were given carte blanche to put your ideas in place under him but the only thing you did was help big business." • Another issue is retirement age. France uses a number-of-years-worked system that has been traditionally set at 40 years, meaning that many French retire at 60. On this issue, Marine Le Pen said she wants to keep the retirement age at 60 after 40 years of paying into the national retirement fund, equivalent to the US Social Security system. Emmanuel Macron responded that this would cost 30 billion Euros (money that France doesn't have), so he proposes a higher retirement age without reference to years worked. This is also a major concern of the French and its powerful labor unions, who are determined to keep their retirement at 60. • The question of France's role in the European Union is a major concern for many French and one of Marine Le Pen's key positions is that she wants a national referendum on whether to stay or leave the EU, and whether to keep the Euro or return to the French Franc. For Le Pen it is a question of national sovereignty, and she sees the future of the EU as a "European alliance of free and sovereign nations." With this vision of Europe, Le Pen sees a better opportunity for France to develop its own industries and small businesses under what she calls "economic patriotism." In this, Le Pen distinguishes Europe from the EU. She says she is "European" but wants to "save Europe from the claws of the European Union." In the debate, she accused Macron of representing a France that is "subservient to the EU." She drove home her point by saying : "France will be governed by a woman, either by me or by Mrs. Merkel." That hit a nerve with Macron because many French feel that France is being dragged along by politicians who favor the German economic 'model' and German hegemony over Europe. Le Pen says that the German economic model does not fit France or many other European countries and its imposition holds them down, as does the Euro, in her opinion, because both are tailored to the German advanced industrial economy and not to the mixed industrial-entrepreneurial-agricultural ecomonies of other European nations. • Another big issue in this election is the sense of most French people that they are not safe in their homes and on the streets. Marine Le Pen is adament that the fundamental reason for the lack of security in France is the country's open door to too many immigrants, some of whom are islamic terrorists. She says she would immediately expel all immigrants who are under police surveillance because of their islamic radicalization. She wants to create 40 000 supplementary prison places for French citizens who are radicalized, and to create bilateral agreements with other countries to repatriate radicalized terrorist immigrants who are now in France. She also wants a unified umbrella French security force that would better coordinate the effort to eradicate islamic terrorism. Macron's answer to these positions is to say he believes that "France is a generous, open country of light and not shut off from the world. In effect, Macron is a globalist European -- he prefers the "ever closer union" vision of the EU elites and thinks life without the Euro currency would be a 'disaster.' To accomplish this, he seems willing to sacrifice the unique culture of France and every other European country for "closer union." • • • WHO WILL WIN? If the polls are even close to being right, Macron will take abot 60% of the vote on Sunday, against about 38% for Le Pen. The BIG unknown is who will vote. The Socialists are urging everone to vote Macron in order to prevent a Le Pen victory that they see as catastrophic. But, the Socialist candidate got only 6.1% of the vote in the first round, largely because Socialist President Hollande has an approval rating of about 5% -- the French see his term as having produced poverty, job destruction, and unending islamic terrorist worries and attacks. That's why Le Pen ties Macron to Hollande, and she is right. It feels a lot like Macron tried out his ideas as Hollande's economic minister; the ideas failed, so he left the party to try again as a 'non-Socialist' Socialist. The extreme leftist Melenchon, who finished 4th in the first round, is telling his supporters to vote Macron, but 40% of them say they will either abstain or vote Le Pen as a protest vote. The Gaullists are the most troubled voter bloc. Les Républicains, their latest party name, have historically bitterly opposed Le Pen -- the father Jean-Marie. Now, his daughter seems to be closest to their positions on most issues, except for leaving the EU, but they are telling their supporters to abstain -- vote neither for Le Pen nor for Macron. Where does that leave us? In a quandary. • • • DEAR READERS, I spent more time on explaining Marine Le Pen's positions because you will recognize a certain "Trumpism" in them. She is clearly in the "populist" camp in Europe -- populist being seen in Europe as a pejorative label that indicates refusal to recognize the "future" of Europe. While most professional politicians and analysts are calling the election for Macron, there are some encouraging signs for Le Pen. For example, while Macron came in first in the first round of voting, there was only about 2% between him and Le Pen. She carried 18,885 communes against 7,775 for Macron. The problem for her is that Macron carried more of the big cities -- Paris and Lyon and Bordeaux -- while she took Marseille and Lille. So, since there is no electoral college in France as in the US, he has a popular vote advantage even though he carried fewer communes. Looking at Departments -- equivalent to states in the US -- Le Pen carried 49 departments vs Macron's 34, but the problem is the same as above. • Looking at voter sentiment, Le Pen got votes from the French she calls the Forgotten French, who aren't "racist" as Macron and others charge -- they simply want to be heard and have their issues addressed -- issues related to joblessness, very high taxes, wage stagnation, immigration that they do not want and cannot afford, and kowtowing to Germany in an EU that they feel is overwhelmingly against them and their way of life. That sounds a lot like Trump supporters. • Marine Le Pen's second round problem is that the parties that lost are telling their followers to vote for Macron or abstain. Le Pen has almost no allies in other parties. BUT, the question remains whether many of the 19% who voted for Melenchon will bolt to Le Pen, because Melenchon is an outsider like her who called for the 'everyday' French to be in charge of the country. Could that translate into a Le Pen victory? The polls say 'no' but at least one poll suggests that if the abstentions are large anough, there could be a near split bewteen Macron and Le Pen at around 28% each. Whoever wins under such a scenario would have no mandate to govern, and France will be in even worse straits than it is now. • I think the real, the only, question is whether Marine Le Pen can overcome her father's image as a racist Nazi sympathizer. She has waged a serious campaign to separate herself from him and his image, but will it be enough? If her name were not Le Pen, she would be ahead of Macron, who is a hollow puppet pumped up with ideas and sent out to sell them without any evidence of real conviction. He is called "Baby Hollande." But, unless there is an enormous silent majorty in France who will vote Le Pen, there is little chance she can win on Sunday. The good news is that Marine Le Pen, who is only 48, has legitimized the Front National. She is already being called the "opposition." And, many French political professionals see her and the FN as winning the presidency in the future, perhaps as early as 2022, after they have been around long enough to solidly prove their good intentions.