Debate Day Message for Hillary : "The fault is not in our stars, but in ourselves, that we are underlings"

Presidential Debate Day is here and while the NBC/WSJ poll has Hillary Clinton 6% ahead and the Rasmussen poll has Donald Trump 6% ahead -- the Washington Post/ABC News poll released Sunday shows the race too close to call. It also shows that 80% of voters say they plan to watch Monday’s debate, and 44% expect Clinton to win vs. 34% who expect Trump to win. ~~~~~~ Likely voters split 46% for Clinton and 44 % for Trump to be elected, with a 4.5% margin of error that makes it a dead heat. This result is when the two are put together with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at 5% and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 1%. Among registered voters, Clinton and Trump are tied at 41%, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 2%. In a two-way matchup, Clinton tops Trump by 49% to 47% among likely voters, and the two are tied at 46% among all registered voters, again inside the 4.5% margin of error. The poll was taken before Senator Ted Cruz announced his support for Trump, which may be reflected in the next round of polling. The truth is that the WP/ABC findings drive home just how much the presidential race has tightened in recent weeks, after Clinton emerged from the two national conventions with a clear lead and with Trump on the defensive. In early September, Clinton led Trump by 5% among likely voters. In early August, she led by 8%. But, as Clinton ran into trouble with continuing email releases and her health issues highlighted by her collapse at the New York City 9/11 ceremony, followed by her effort to hide her illness -- and the generalized speculation that she has health problems that extend beyond pneumonia -- Trump took advantage of everything to show himself as a more disciplined candidate in an effort to attract more support from voters who traditionally have supported Republican nominees. It appears to have been at least partly responsible for Ted Cruz's endorsement. ~~~~~~ There are indications that Trump is at last bringing home disaffected Republicans, which will inevitably tighten the race. The WP says its latest poll is : "a reminder of how much will be at stake Monday night at Hofstra University when the two meet at 9 pm before what could be one of the largest television audiences ever for a presidential debate." Although 17% of registered voters now say the debate could change their minds, only 6% say there is a good chance of that happening. Most Americans say they are following the campaign closely, but a higher percentage of Trump supporters appear to be paying close attention than Clinton backers. Also, more Clinton backers say they are not registered to vote, which adds to pressure on her team to get them registered and to the polls. The WP says it is 'worrying' for Hillary that she is getting a smaller share of voters who supported Obama in 2012 than Trump is getting among those who backed Romney. Obama’s approval rating continues to be a potential boost for Clinton, however. His current approval among all adults is 55%, dipping from a high of 58% two weeks ago. But, says the WP : "Clinton is facing a greater challenge reuniting Obama’s winning coalition. Roughly 8 in 10 likely voters who supported him in 2012 currently back Clinton, while Trump wins 9 in 10 of those who supported Mitt Romney. ~~~~~~ The race between Clinton and Trump, as in every presidential race, continues to be defined along lines of gender, race and education. Men and women are mirror opposites in their preferences -- 54% of men back Trump and 55% of women support Clinton. The racial gap is much wider -- white voters back Trump by 53% to 37%; nonwhite voters back Clinton by 69% to 19%. But, even among nonwhite voters, including Hispanics and Latinos, Trump is very close to matching Romney's 2102 performance. However, educational attainment among white voters continues to be a critical indicator -- Trump’s support among white men has increased and Trump leads Clinton by more than 4 to 1 among white men without college degrees, and by a smaller ratio among white women without college degrees and among college-educated white men. Clinton leads Trump by 57% to 32% among college-educated white women. Both candidates continue to be viewed negatively by the voters. The WP/ABC poll shows that 39% of registered voters have a favorable impression of Clinton, while 57% have an unfavorable impression. For Trump, the results are similar -- 38% see him positively, 57% negatively. Trump's unfavorability number, however, is 5% lower than it was just before the national conventions in July. Both candidates are seen as lacking in honesty, although Clinton is in worse shape on this measure. Currently, 33% of voters say she is honest and trustworthy, compared to Trump, where 42% say he is honest and trustworhty. This is a major positive movement for Trump. ~~~~~~ The Washington Post says Trump’s major obstacle still appears to be the fact that majorities do not see him as qualified to be President or possessing presidential temperament -- 53% of registered voters say he is not qualified, 58% say he lacks the temperament to serve effectively, and 55% say he does not know enough about the world to serve effectively. Again, Trump is improving in this respect -- in July, 60% of registered voters said he was not qualified. White men are far more likely to say that Trump is qualified (63% of white men vs. 43% overall); that Trump has the personality and temperament to serve effectively (54% vs. 38%); and that Trump has sufficient knowledge of world affairs (57% vs. 41%). Majorities of registered voters judge both candidates to be in good enough health to serve as President, but Trump is far ahead of Clinton -- 73% for Trump and 52% for Clinton. ~~~~~~ Clinton was criticized recently when she said that half of Trump’s supporters could be put into a “basket of deplorables,” by which she said she meant people who were “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic and Islamophobic.” She later said she regretted saying “half” but stood her ground that Trump’s candidacy has appealed to many people with those prejudices. Clinton’s opinion is not shared by most Americans, with more than 60% saying it is unfair to describe a large portion of Trump supporters as prejudiced against women and minorities. Interestingly, this criticism cuts both ways -- 60% say Trump is trying to win support by “appealing to people’s prejudices against groups that are different from their own,” and 45% saying she, too, is appealing to people’s prejudices. Jobs and the economy continue to top the list of issues influencing people’s vote, labelled as most important by 32% of registered voters. But, 25% say terrorism is the most important issue in their vote, up from 19% last month. Terrorism-focused voters now support Trump by a 20-point margin over Clinton, up from a 13% margin earlier in September. ~~~~~~ We have not heard many reports in the media lately about how the GOP has adandoned Trump, and the support of Senator Ted Cruz will lessen even further that line of attack on Trump's legitimacy. But, what we are hearing are reports about how the Democrat establishment is 'worried' about Hillary's truthfulness, lack of transparency and health. The apex of this 'worry' was expressed by President Obama when he told the Black Caucus on September 19 that it would be an ‘insult’ to his legacy if African Americans don’t vote for Hillary. Whether Obama was more 'worried' about electing Clinton or protecting his own inflated view of his accomplishments is not clear -- but what he said is unique in the history of US politics : “So if I hear anybody saying their vote does not matter, that it doesn’t matter who we elect -- read up on your history. It matters. (Applause) We’ve got to get people to vote. (Applause) In fact, if you want to give Michelle and me a good sendoff -- and that was a beautiful video -- but don’t just watch us walk off into the sunset, now. Get people registered to vote. (Applause.) If you care about our legacy, realize everything we stand for is at stake. All the progress we’ve made is at stake in this election. (Applause) My name may not be on the ballot, but our progress is on the ballot. (Applause) Tolerance is on the ballot. Democracy is on the ballot. (Applause) Justice is on the ballot. Good schools are on the ballot. (Applause) Ending mass incarceration -- that’s on the ballot right now! (Applause) And there is one candidate who will advance those things. And there’s another candidate whose defining principle, the central theme of his candidacy is opposition to all that we’ve done. There’s no such thing as a vote that doesn’t matter. It all matters. And after we have achieved historic turnout in 2008 and 2012, especially in the African-American community, I will consider it a personal insult, an insult to my legacy, if this community lets down its guard and fails to activate itself in this election. (Applause.) You want to give me a good sendoff? Go vote. (Applause) And I’m going to be working as hard as I can these next seven weeks to make sure folks do.” As we discussed earlier this week, that includes quickly making new citizens of immigrants with little regard to proper vetting -- so they can vote for Hillary. Without intending it, Barack Obama pointed toward his “legacy” -- saying, much like Turkey's Erdogan, it must be protected from “insult” -- by calling to mind all the means by which he has "insulted" America -- illegal immigrant protection, sanctuary cities, choosing the death-to-cops rants of Black Lives Matter, presidential governance by unconstitutional executive order, lies about his goal of a nationalized healthcare system -- all without doing one thing about jobs or education or housing or curbing neighborhood violence that would have improved the lives of black Americans or, for that matter, Hispanics and Latinos. We will not even address the degradation and belittling of the no-longer-silent Silent Majority who have found a voice in Donald Trump. It is President Obama should be apologizing for his "insults" to America and her citizens. ~~~~~~ And the disasters of the Obama presidency is showing up in the polls. The USC Dornsife/LA Times tracking poll that tracks 3000 eligible voters and weights averages over a week, and consequently has a lag time in reflecting trends, has uncovered a collapse in minority support for Hillary. The question the pollsters asked was "What is the chance you will vote for Trump or Clinton, or someone else?" Considering all voters, a substantial advantage has moved to Trump over the last week -- Trump 47.8% and Clinton 41.1%. Breaking the responses down -- whites choose Trump at 56.0% and Clinton at 32.8%; blacks choose Trump at 18.9% and Clinton at 72.6%; Latinos choose Trump at 53.8% and Clinton at 33.4%. Trump's margin among males dwarfs Hillary’s margin among females -- women choose Trump at 41.0% and Clinton at 47.0%; men choose Trump at 54.6% and Clinton at 35.1%. ~~~~~~ Dear readers, no wonder Democrat insiders are 'worried." They ought to be pushing the panic button. With an estimated 100 million American voters planning to watch Monday evening's debate -- forget Monday Night Football, this is a Super Bowl viewer figure -- there is going to be pressure like neither candidate has yet felt in this election cycle. Donald Trump is used to TV and the pressure of being "on" for his audience. Clinton is not and it will not be her policy wonkiness or smug sense of superiority that will save the day for her when she has to hold up against the master for 90 minutes without insulting average Americans or belittling police or having a seizure. So, get your popcorn, Cokes and Buds ready. This will be the biggest primetime spectacle ever. And, Donald Trump will be standing when the evening is over -- smiling, while Hillary again asks herself, "Why am I not 50 points ahead?" To answer that question, Mrs. Clinton, I quote Shakespeare : "The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves, that we are underlings."