Tuesday, March 15 -- Trump or Cruz Will Be the GOP Nominee

The GOP battle for delegates heated up Tuesday. An ABC News Mini Super Tuesday Republican Exit Poll analysis shows what motivated GOP voters who turned out for the Tuesday GOP primaries. (1). When asked about satisfaction, just over half the voting Republicans say they’d be satisfied with Trump as the nominee, with about four in 10 say they’d seriously consider a third-party candidate, but 6 in 10 non-Trump supporters say they would seriously consider a third party if he became the GOP nominee. (2). Asked who they would vote for in the general election, slightly more than half of GOP primary voters say they’d definitely vote for Trump; two in 10 say they’d "probably" support him, and about a quarter of primary GOP voters say they would not vote for him. (3). Ratings about “honest and trustworthy” show no state where a majority of voters sees Trump as honest, including in the critical state of Ohio. That said, neither Cruz nor Rubio are especially strong on this measure, either. By contrast, it’s a strong suit for Kasich – two-thirds in Missouri and three-quarters in Illinois say he’s trustworthy. (4). Across all five March 15 primaries, a little more than 50% of voters are looking for an outsider rather than someone with political experience, including in Ohio and Florida. (6). Again across all five states, two-thirds favor a temporary ban on Moslems entering the United States, peaking at three-quarters in Missouri. (7). In the five states voting on March 15, 40% of Republican primary voters overall support deporting undocumented immigrants rather than offering them a chance to apply for legal status – including 40% in Ohio, 33% in Florida, and highs of more than 40% in Illinois and Missouri. (8). GOP primary voters are angry with the way the federal government is working, averaging 40% across the five states voting on March 15. The range is from 33% in Illinois to more than 40% in Missouri. (9). Nearly 40% of voters in March 15 states are stressing shared values, consistent across all five states. (10). In March 15 data, strong conservatives account for a third of GOP voters overall, ranging from about 30% in Florida and Illinois, to more than 40% in Missouri. (11). Evangelicals account for 67% in North Carolina and 60% in Missouri, dropping to 50% in Ohio and less than half in Florida and Illinois. (12). Slightly more than 40% of March 15 voters made up their minds more than a month ago, while more than half of voters decided within the last month. (13). 20% of Republican voters across March 15 states say they’re falling behind financially; and 67% say they’re very worried about the economy’s condition. ~~~~~ In addition, CNN exit polls of Republicans voting in Ohio and North Carolina on March 15 show they feel betrayed by the Republican Party and that they would rather have an outsider in the White House than an experienced candidate. When asked if they feel betrayed by the GOP -- North Carolinians said Yes 56% and No 40%; and Ohioans said Yes 57% and No: 38%. When asked if they would rather have an experienced GOP candidate or outsider in the White House -- North Carolinians Outsider 54% and Experienced candidate 38%; and Ohioans said Outsider 50% and Experienced 43%. ~~~~~ With these opinion polls as background, we can considet the actual results. FLORIDA -- Donald Trump won in Florida with 45.7%, beating Rubio at 27%, followed by Cruz 17.1% and Kasich at 6.8%. Marco Rubio announced after the primary that he is suspending his campaign for President. NORTH CAROLINA -- Trump beat Cruz, 40.4% to 36.4%, followed by Kasich st 12.7% and Rubio at 8.1%. OHIO -- Kasich beat Trump, 44.3% to 36.3%, with Cruz at 15.3% and Rubio at 2.7%. ILLINOIS -- Trump beat Cruz, 40.1% to 27.9%, with Kasich at 20.5% and Rubio at 9.1%. MISSOURI -- not decided yet, but Trump leads at 42.8% followed by Cruz at 40.7%, Kasich at 8.1% and Rubio at 5.6%. ~~~~~ Dear readers, it is now clear that either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will be the 2016 Republican presidential candidate. Will they combine? It would create a Convention that unifies the GOP.