Tuesday, February 2, 2016
What We Learned about the 2016 Election in Iowa
What did we learn about the 2016 presidential election in Iowa? ~~~~~ First and foremost, we learned that Marco Rubio is handsome, smart and articulate -- appealing to conservatives and moderates alike, but only at a 23% level. We also learned that 25% of Republicans voted for the self-labeled conservative change agent Donald Trump and 28% voted for the even more conservative Ted Cruz -- so the almost giddy euphoria of the establishment GOP was misplaced because more than half their faithful voted for outsider candidates whose stated goals are similarly anti-establishment. ~~~~~ We learned that 49.5% of Democrats were willing to vote the 74-year-old socialist outsider Bernie Sanders who calls for a Second Revolution rather than vote for Hillary Clinton, the Democrat establishment darling. ~~~~~ The Democrats suffer from a malady that was initially caused by Bill Clinton's rogue presidency. Hillary Clinton aided and abetted her husband's outlawry and went on to build her own rogue empire. She eked out a 0.2% win in Iowa because women, especially women of a certain age, mistakenly believe she cares about them or about their position in politics. Hillary Clinton cares about Hillary Clinton. Period. Bernie Sanders' astonishing performance came in spite of Clinton's brilliant staff operation, full of members who reportedly whispered to reporters that voters weren’t so keen on their candidate. Iowa was a referendum on Clintonland. It failed. Hillary's determination to take the White House for herself at any cost was rejected. ~~~~~ Iowa revealed the scale of the disgust Americans have for a dysfunctional federal government out of control and out of touch with their values and demands as expressed in election after election for 25 years. There is a revolution taking place in American politics, but it is being driven not by Democrats but by Republican voters fighting for a chance to turn their ship of state back to human proportions and constitutional norms. To stand a chance of winning in November as the representative of this grassroots movement, the GOP will have to accommodate the movement instead of scrambling in wild-eyed fear in its wake. Marco Rubio has the potential to do what Reagan did 30 years ago -- mellow the anger of grassroots conservatism with humor and turn it into a strong electoral coalition. Rubio may be the candidate who can pull the GOP's warring factions together, but it is far too early to know this with certainty because Donald Trump, chastened by his second place finish in Iowa, may turn toward the party and provide another path to GOP re-unification. To do this, Trump will have to choose and forcefully articulate the ideals, policies and programs acceptable to both ideological conservatives and lifelong Republicans. Not an easy task, but Donald Trump is a unique force who is new to GOP politics as a candidate and therefore free of the labels all other candidates have pasted on their foreheads. ~~~~~ Dear readers, we learned in Iowa that the November election is truly a watershed precisely because the Republican Party has always stood for the constitutional social and fiscal responsibility that acts as a buffer to the excesses of the Democratic Party. In 2016, if a recognizable America is to continue, Trump or Rubio must find the courage, the grace and the shining inner light to save the GOP by saving America.
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Maybe we also learned that Ted Cruz has the best staff, is the best campaigner, and the best in- tuned with the voters ( in Iowa at least).
ReplyDeleteBut we also learned that both Donald a Trump and Marco Rubio are so almost hus equal.
I think that says that the choices in candidates and ideas/programs that the Republicans are offering not only their own party but soon everyone is far, far superior to what the Demicrates are offering.
We have learned that Ted Cruz has a serious predicament on his way to the nomination and there is only one thing that can help him.
ReplyDeleteLook at the map of the upcoming primaries and caucuses. Cruz has to battle Trump and the Establishment in New Hampshire. Then he has to swing into South Carolina where the Establishment is working hard to stop him. Battling Trump, battling Rubio, and battling Washington are really tough odds for any person. The pundit class on television news has been touting anybody but Cruz.
He will compete with Marco Rubio in Nevada, where Rubio has roots. But then Cruz gets the South on March 1st. That sounds doable, but Cruz is going to have to battle Trump along the way. Cruz and Trump are both fighting over being the one outsider to take on the Establishment. While battling Trump, Cruz also has to face an Establishment that will stop at nothing to defeat him. He weathered the storm mightily in Iowa, but the hits are going to keep coming. The CBS News debate in South Carolina is going to have Kim Strassel as a moderator. She has penned multiple pieces attacking Cruz. She will try to throw him off his game.
Cruz does have one thing that can help him. If Rubio is not able to weather his own incoming fire in New Hampshire and the establishment wing of the party fails to rapidly consolidate. If the establishment wing fails to consolidate but Cruz gets more victories against Trump, Trump will cut his losses sooner than a bunch of egos convinced they are destined to be President by virtue of being a governor.
What’s in Rubio’s favor is that he is more likely to be able to consolidate establishment support quicker than Cruz can get rid of the specter of Donald Trump. To do so, conservatives are going to need to decisively rally to Cruz.
Sit back friends the fun starts now.
The GOP boys and girls need to start presenting their ideas not just attacking others. I don't think sitting on the sidelines will get anyone this nomination
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